Building Plans – May 2023

A total of 164 building plans was approved by the City of Windhoek in May, representing a 25.2% m/m increase from the 131 building plans approved in April. The approvals were valued at N$121.0 million, a 30.4% m/m drop from the N$173.4 million approved in April. Year-to-date, 725 building plans worth N$491.5 million have been approved, down 20.5% in number terms and 22.9% y/y less in value terms compared to the same period in 2022. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,280 buildings worth N$1.61 billion were approved, a contraction of 3.2% y/y in number- and 10.0% y/y in value terms. 37 building plans worth N$82.9 million were completed during May.

May saw 128 additions to properties approved worth N$63.6 million. This figure represents the highest monthly value of approvals witnessed thus far in 2023. Year-to-date, 540 additions to properties worth N$210.8 million have been approved, representing an 8.8% drop in number terms and a 37.9% contraction in value terms compared to the corresponding period in 2022. On a 12-month cumulative basis, 1,623 additions worth N$758.3 million were approved over the past 12 months, compared to 1,550 additions worth N$783.2 million over the same period a year ago. 13additions worth N$5.32 million were completed during May, which falls below the average monthly additions completed so far this year.

A total of 31 new residential units valued at N$55.3 million were approved in May, exceeding the average monthly count of newly approved residential properties thus far this year. Moreover, May witnessed the highest residential approval value since November 2022. The 12-month cumulative new residential unit approval figure remained steady at 589, following 10 consecutive months of contraction. Year-to-date, 163 new residential units worth N$180.0 million have been approved, down 47.4% from the 308 units worth N$255.4 million approved over the same period a year ago. A total of 22 residential units valued at N$15.58 million were completed during May, marking the lowest residential completion figure observed year to date.

5 new commercial and industrial units worth N$1.92 million were approved in May. This brings 2023’s monthly average approvals to about 5 units worth N$20.2 million, up from N$13.6 million approved on average each month in 2022, but still well below the monthly average witnessed just prior to the pandemic, when N$45.9 million worth of units were approved on average each month in the 3 years leading up to the pandemic. 22 new commercial and industrial units valued at N$100.7 million have been approved year-to-date, an increase of 137.0% y/y in value terms. This increase is however mostly due to the relatively large N$76.7 million approval amount registered last month. On a rolling 12-month cumulative basis, 67 commercial and industrial units valued at N$221.1 million have been approved at the end of May, compared to 33 units worth N$162.8 million over the same period a year ago. 2 commercial and industrial units worth N$62.0 million were completed in May.

While May’s building plan approvals data was one of the better months so far this year, overall planned activity remains weak. 2023 is off to the slowest start in value terms since 2009, even before accounting for inflation.

According to the Q1 GDP data released by the Namibian Statistics Agency (NSA) in May, the construction sector recorded marginal quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.9% in real terms during the quarter of 2023. This growth comes after the sector had encountered six consecutive quarterly contractions. The NSA attributed the growth to a 13.2% increase in government construction spending during the quarter. The 12-month cumulative value of approvals has consistently been trending down in real terms for most part of the last decade, as the graph above shows.

Building Plans – April 2023

The City of Windhoek approved 131 building plans in April, representing a 28.8% m/m decline from the 184 building plans approved in March. The approvals were valued at N$173.4 million, a 69.1% m/m increase from the N$102.6 million approved in March. Year-to-date, 561 building plans worth N$370.7 million have been approved, down 26.8% in number terms and 28.6% y/y less in value terms compared to the same period in 2022. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, the number of approvals declined by 5.6% y/y to 2,262 and fell by 12.8% y/y in value terms to N$1.61 billion. A total of 54 building plans worth N$65.6 million were completed during April.

93 additions to properties valued at N$58.7 million received the nod in April. This was 21 fewer and N$4.29 million less than in April 2022. Year-to-date, 412 additions to properties worth N$147.2 million have been approved, representing a 13.8% decrease in number terms and a 45.8% drop in value terms compared to the corresponding period a year earlier. On a 12-month cumulative basis, both the number and value of additions to properties continued to decline. 1,609 additions to properties worth N$762.5 million were approved over the past 12 months, compared to 1,630 additions worth N$766.8 over the same period a month ago. A total of 12 additions valued at N$3.69 million were completed during April, the lowest monthly number and value of additions to properties recorded so far this year.

29 new residential units valued at N$38.1 million were approved in April, compared to the 58 units worth N$42.7 million receiving the go-ahead a year ago. Year-to-date, 132 new residential units worth N$124.7 million have been approved, down 52.5% from the 278 units worth N$208.4 million approved over the same period a year earlier. The 12-month cumulative new residential unit approval figures continued their downward spiral. 589 units worth N$620.4 million have been approved over the past 12 months, down 28.2% in number terms and 30.0% less in value terms compared to the corresponding period a year ago. A total of 41 residential units valued at N$47.9 million were completed during April.

9 new commercial and industrial units worth N$76.7 million were approved in April, more than thrice the cumulative value of commercial and industrial units approved over the first quarter of the year. This brings the year-to-date commercial and industrial building approvals to 17 valued at N$98.8 million, an increase of 152.3% from the N$39.2 million worth of units approved over the same period in 2022. On a rolling 12-month basis, both the number and value of commercial and industrial unit approvals ticked up from a month earlier. A total of 64 commercial and industrial units valued at N$222.5 million have been approved over the 12-month period, compared to 35 units worth N$184.4 million over the same period a year ago. Only 1 commercial and industrial unit was completed for the third month in a row.

Building plans data showed little buoyancy in April. The approval figures, particularly within the commercial space, witnessed some improvement. These advances were, however, achieved from a very low base and the overall picture for building plans remains relatively bleak as the graphs above and below imply. Construction activity is anticipated to remain low in the near term due to the sluggish economy grappling with high inflation and confronting elevated interest rates. All factors creating an unfavourable environment for fostering interest in new construction projects.

Building Plans – March 2023

A total of 184 building plans was approved by the City of Windhoek in March, a 10.2% m/m increase from the 167 approved in February. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$102.6 million, a 41.1% m/m increase from the N$72.67 million approved in February. The first quarter of the year saw 430 building plans worth N$197.3 million approved, a contraction of 27.5% in number terms and 52.2% less in value terms compared to the first quarter of 2022. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,304 buildings worth N$1.53 billion were approved, a decline of 6.8% in number- and 21.9% in value terms over the comparative 12-month period a year ago. 75 building plans worth N$41.86 million were completed during March.

March saw 136 additions to properties approved valued at N$33.81 million, 3 more than in March 2022 but N$22.43 million less in value terms. On a year-to-date basis, 319 additions to properties worth N$88.6 million were approved in the first quarter of 2023, representing a 12.4% decline in number terms and a 57.5% contraction in value terms compared to the first quarter of last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number and value of additions to properties continued to decline and dropped below the levels seen for the corresponding 12-month period a year earlier. 29 Additions, worth N$8.03 million were completed during the month.

46 new residential units valued at N$48.75 million were approved in March, the highest monthly new residential unit approvals reported so far this year. Year-to-date, 103 new residential units worth N$86.6 million have been approved, down 53.2% from the 220 units worth N$165.7 million approved over the first quarter of 2022. The slump is also reflected in the 12-month cumulative figures which came in at 618 units worth N$624.9 million, a drop of 26.6% y/y in number terms and a contraction of 35.7% y/y in value terms. A total of 45 residential units worth N$31.83 million were completed during the month.

2 new commercial and industrial units worth N$20 million was approved in March. This brings the year-to-date approvals to 8 commercial buildings worth N$22.1 million, representing a 42.9% y/y drop from the N$38.8 million worth of commercial and industrial units approved over the first quarter of last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals remained unchanged at 56 units but dropped in value terms to N$146.2 million from N$156.2 million a month earlier. Only 1 commercial and industrial unit was completed for the second month in a row.

March’s building plans data showed a slight improvement from February but continue to decent compared to the data from a year ago. The graphs above and below depict that the planned construction activity in the capital has gotten off to a weak start in 2023, like the previous lows of 2009, marking it the weakest start to a year in the past decade.  More hardship is expected over the shorter term with local interest rates almost certain to rise even further in April which will make borrowing cost for new construction projects even more expensive in an already tepid economy. Meanwhile, the Construction Industries Federation of Namibia (CIF) continue its efforts in encouraging the government to establish a Construction Council which it believes will assist in stemming unwanted practices in the sector which arguably will improve competition and drive down construction costs – one of the factors deterring growth in this sector.