Building Plans – April 2022

The City of Windhoek approved 173 building plans in April, representing a 12.6% m/m decline from the 198 building plans approved in March. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$106.0 million, a 17.2% m/m contraction. Year-to-date 766 building plans worth N$519.0 million have gotten the nod, a decrease in number of 6.7% y/y, and 18.9% y/y in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis 2,396 building plans worth N$1.84 billion were approved, a contraction of 8.1% in number, and 4.9% in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 78 building plans worth N$43.0 million were completed during the month.

Additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals, in both number and value terms. For the month of April 114 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$63.0 million, compared to 133 approvals worth N$56.2 million in March. The data shows a single addition worth N$31.0 million being approved during the month, making up nearly half the total value of additions to properties approved during the month. Year-to-date 478 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$240.4 million, a contraction of 6.5% y/y in number terms but an increase of 7.1% y/y in value terms. 35 additions worth N$10.3 million were completed in April.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 58 approvals registered in April, 5 fewer than in March. In value terms N$42.7 million worth of residential units were approved in April, a 2.1% m/m increase. On a year-on-year basis the value of approvals is however 67.1% lower than registered in April 2021. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of residential units approved fell by 7.1% y/y to 820 and the number has been ticking down since September last year. 42 New residential units worth N$32.7 million were completed in April.

Only one commercial unit, valued at N$380,000 was approved in April. This brings the total number of commercial buildings approved in 2022 to 10, at a value of N$39.2 million. Bar one month, the number of approvals for commercial and industrial properties has been languishing in the single-digit territory since September 2016 and has an average approval rate of fewer than 3 approvals per month over the last 12 months. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 35 units, worth approximately N$184.4 million, an increase of 67.2% in value terms from the period ending April 2021. One commercial building plan was recorded as completed in April, valued at N$65,000. 

As illustrated in the figure above, the cumulative value of building plans approved continues to trend downward in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. As approvals is a forward-looking measure of expected construction activity this does not bode well for economic activity in the capital in general. Commercial and industrial construction activity remains extremely subdued. Going forward we expect lower value additions to properties to continue making up the majority of approvals.

Building Plans – March 2022

A total of 198 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in March, representing a 9.6% m/m decrease from the 219 building plans approved in February. The total value of approvals fell by 18.1% m/m to N$128.0 million. The year-to-date value of approved building plans reached N$413.0 million, 1.7% higher than in the first quarter of 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,473 building plans with a value of N$1.97 billion have been approved, an increase of 4.9% y/y in number and 15.7% y/y in value terms. The number of completions for the month of March stood at 116, valued at N$74.1 million.

Additions to properties, the largest portion of approvals in both number and value terms, made up 133 of the total 198 approved building plans recorded in March, one more than registered in February. In the first quarter of the year, 364 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$208.5 million, a 5.5% y/y increase in number and 29.9% y/y value terms. 58 additions worth N$14.5 million were completed in March.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number and value of building plans approved with 63 new units worth N$41.8 million being registered, representing a 51.9% y/y decrease from the N$86.9 million worth of approvals in March 2021. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved increased by 4.9% y/y to 842. While the number of new residential building plans approved during the first quarter were two more than during the same period last year, the value of these approvals fell by 28.3% y/y. 56 new residential units worth N$51.9 million were completed during the month.

2 New commercial and industrial units, valued at N$30 million were approved in March. This is 2 units fewer than approved in February, but an increase of 823.1% m/m and 328.6% y/y in value terms, although the increases are from a very low base. The increase in value is due to a N$25 million building plan submitted by Vivo Energy Namibia. Year-to-date, there have been 9 commercial and industrial building approvals valued at N$38.8 million. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial building approvals has increased to 38 units worth N$195.7 million as at March, compared to the 25 approved units worth N$98.7 million over the corresponding period a year ago. Two commercial and industrial units worth N$7.6 million were completed in March.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 4.9% y/y in March. A total of 2,473 building plans to the value of N$1.97 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents an increase in value terms of 15.7% y/y. Additions to properties continue to make up the majority of the cumulative approvals at 64.4% in number terms. The number of commercial and industrial approvals has continuously remained in the single-digit territory since March 2020, indicating a lack of investment from businesses. The first quarter of the year saw total approvals generally in line with those of Q1 last year, recording an increase of only 3.9% y/y in number and 1.7% y/y in value terms. Completed building plans decreased by 27.7% y/y in value terms to N$1.06 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis.

Building Plans – February 2022

The City of Windhoek approved 219 building plans in February, representing a 24.4% m/m increase from the 176 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$156.3 million, a 21.5% m/m increase. Year-to-date 395 building plans worth N$285.0 million have got the nod, an increase in number of 15.2% y/y and 14.9% y/y in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,503 buildings with the value of N$2.00 billion were approved, an increase of 8.9% in number and 18.6% in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 144 building plans worth N$53.1 million were completed during the month.

In terms of both number and value of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of February 132 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$76.8 million, 1 more than in February 2021. The value of the additions approved is 8.8% higher than during the same month last year. 104 Additions worth N$20.6 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 83 approvals registered in February, 9 more than in January. In value terms N$76.2 million worth of residential units were approved in February, a 59.6% m/m increase. On a year-on-year basis the value of approvals is however 17.9% lower than registered in February 2021. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of residential units approved increased by 17.5% y/y to 860, although this number has been ticking down since May last year when it stood at 933. 40 New residential units worth N$32.6 million were completed in February.

4 New commercial units valued at N$3.6 million were approved in February. This compares to 3 units valued at N$505,000 approved in February 2021. Year-to-date there have been 7 commercial building approvals valued at N$8.8 million, which translates to a 75.0% y/y increase in number and 17.0% y/y increase in value terms compared to the same period last year. These increases are from an evidently low base low base. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 40 units worth N$172.7 million, compared to the 26 approved units worth N$180.8 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in February.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans increased by 8.9% y/y in February to 2,503. While this in an increase from the prior 12-month period, it has been hovering around the current level since April last year, showing nearly no meaningful improvement since then. Residential approvals have recorded a decent recovery in 2021 following the slowdown in 2020, but has too stagnated at current levels on a 12-month cumulative basis in both number and value terms since April last year. As pointed out last month, the number of commercial and industrial approvals continues to trend in the low single digit territory and in value terms, commercial approvals have remained below the N$200 million mark on a cumulative 12-month basis for the last 13 months.