New Vehicle Sales – September 2019

A total of 806 new vehicles were sold in September, representing a 0.2% m/m decrease from the 808 vehicles sold in August. Year-to-date, 7,841 vehicles have been sold of which 3,534 were passenger vehicles, 3,763 were light commercial vehicles, and 544 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is the lowest year-to-date sales witnessed since 2009. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales continued its downward trend. 10,680 new vehicles were sold over the last twelve months, a 10.2% contraction from the previous twelve months and also the lowest level since 2009.

320 new passenger vehicles were sold in September, contracting by 11.1% m/m and 5.9% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,534 units, down 11.1% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in September 2018. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 9.7% y/y as the number of passenger vehicles sold continued to decline.

A total of 486 new commercial vehicles were sold in September, increasing of 8.5% m/m but contracted by 24.8% y/y. Of the 486 commercial vehicles sold in September, 405 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 25 as medium commercial vehicles and 56 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 12.7% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales and heavy commercial vehicles rose 0.41% y/y and 12.3% y/y, respectively.  There has been an increase in the sale of heavy commercial vehicles on a year-to-year basis, from the 6.9% recorded in the preceding month. This illustrates a slight increase in the demand for durable goods by businesses.

Volkswagen leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 30.4% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota in second place with 29.7% of the market-share as at the end of September. Kia, Mercedes, Hyundai and Ford each command around 5.0% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 19.4% of the market to other brands.

Toyota retains a strong year-to-date market share of 58.5% and remains the market leader in the light commercial vehicle segment. Nissan remains in second position in the segment with 11.7% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 9.3% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 37.2% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy- and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 34.8% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remain under pressure, with the year-to-date new vehicle sales in 2019 currently below 2010 levels, and the total new vehicle sales for the last 12 months down 10.2% from the same period in 2018. The number of vehicle sales recorded continues to decrease and any prospects of growth in the short-term remains dim. Latest data from the Namibia Statistics Agency recorded 2.6% contraction in the Namibian economy. As a result, we expect demand to remain subdued due to low consumer and business confidence.

New Vehicle Sales – August 2019

A total of 808 new vehicles were sold in August, representing a 10.6% m/m decrease from the 904 vehicles sold in July. Year-to-date, 7,035 vehicles have been sold of which 3,214 were passenger vehicles, 3,358 were light commercial vehicles, and 463 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is the lowest year-to-date sales witnessed since 2009. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sale continued its downward trend. 10,860 new vehicles were sold over the last twelve months, a 9.8% contraction from the previous twelve months and also the lowest level since 2009.

360 new passenger vehicles were sold in August, contracting by 5.8% m/m and 15.3% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,214 units, down 11.6% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in August 2018. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 10.9% y/y as the number of passenger vehicles sold continued to decline.

A total of 448 new commercial vehicles were sold in August, representing a contraction of 14.2% m/m and 30.2% y/y. Of the 448 commercial vehicles sold in August, 389 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 26 as medium commercial vehicles and 33 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 10.5% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales and heavy commercial vehicles rose 1.7% y/y and 6.9% y/y, respectively. Heavy commercial vehicles have seen some buoyancy in the last couple of months with 190 vehicles being sold since the beginning of May 2019.

Toyota continues to lead the passenger vehicle sales segment with 30.4% of the segment sales year-to-date. Volkswagen in a close second place with 30.3% of the market-share as at the end of August. Kia, Mercedes, Hyundai and Ford each command around 4.9% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 19.3% of the market to other brands.

Toyota with a strong market share of 58.5% year-to-date remains the market leader in the light commercial vehicle segment. Nissan remains in second position in the segment with 11.6% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 8.8% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 39.2% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy- and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 36.0% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remain under pressure, with the year-to-date new vehicle sales in 2019 currently below 2010 levels, and the total new vehicle sales for the last 12 months down 9.8 from the same period in 2018. Vehicle sales is a lagging economic indicator and thus tells us little about what to expect going forward, but continues to illustrate the extent of the economic downturn. Presently, vehicle sales continue to point to low consumer and business confidence. This is evident as number of commercial vehicles sold year-to-date contracted by 14.0%, which shows a slowdown in the demand for durable goods by businesses.

New Vehicle Sales – July 2019

A total of 904 new vehicles were sold in July, representing a 7.5% m/m decrease from the 977 vehicles sold in June. Year-to-date, 6,227 vehicles have been sold of which 2,854 were passenger vehicles, 2,969 were light commercial vehicles, and 404 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sale continued on a downward trend, contracting by 7.5% from the 11,119 new vehicles sold over the comparable period a year ago.

382 New passenger vehicles were sold in July, increasing by 1.1% m/m, but contracting by 37.2% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,854 units, down 11.1% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in July 2018. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 4.6% m/m and 8.9% y/y as figures continue to reflect weakness in the number of passenger vehicles sold.

A total of 522 new commercial vehicles were sold in July, representing a contraction of 12.9% m/m and 11.4% y/y. Of the 522 commercial vehicles sold in July, 435 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 37 as medium commercial vehicles and 50 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 8.8% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales remained flat, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose by 28.8% y/y. While heavy commercial vehicles continue to record growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis, the light segment of the market continues to see lower volumes sold than in 2018.

Toyota once again leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 30.9% of the segment sales year-to-date. Volkswagen dropped to second place by this measure with 30.6% of the market-share as at the end of July. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford each command around 5.0% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 18.9% of the market to other brands.

Toyota with a strong market share of 58.4% year-to-date commands the light commercial vehicles sales segment. Nissan remains in second position in the segment with 12.1% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 8.5% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 36.4% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy- and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 36.0% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remain under pressure, with the year-to-date new vehicle sales in 2019 currently below 2011 levels, and the total new vehicle sales for the last 12 months down 7.5% from the same period in 2018. The prospects for new vehicle sales remain dim in the short- to medium-term as government remains committed to fiscal consolidation. Business and consumer confidence remain depressed as a result of the of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in.