Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 977 new vehicles were sold in June, representing a 7.4% m/m decrease from the 1,055 vehicles sold in May. Year-to-date, 5,323 vehicles have been sold of which 2,472 were passenger vehicles, 2,534 were light commercial vehicles, and 317 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a rolling 12-month basis a total of 11,412 new vehicles were sold as at June 2019, representing a contraction of 5.7% from the 12,100 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

378 New passenger vehicles were sold in June, declining by 26.2% m/m and 18.0% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,472 units, down 5.0% when compared to the number sold in the first half of last year. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 1.6% m/m and 2.4% y/y. Passenger vehicles have made up 46.4% of the total number of new vehicles sold in the first six months of 2019, compared to 44.7% in the same period last year.

A total of 599 new commercial vehicles were sold in June, representing a 10.3% m/m increase, but a 9.7% y/y contraction. Of the 599 commercial vehicles sold in June 519 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 31 as medium commercial vehicles and 49 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 10.5% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 5.0% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose by 25.4% y/y. While medium- and heavy commercial vehicles continue to record growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis, the light segment of the market continues to see lower volumes sold than in 2018.

Volkswagen narrowly leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 31.5% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota retained second place with 31.2% of the market share as at the end of June. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford each command around 5.0% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 18.2% of the market to other brands.

Toyota, with a strong market share of 59.5% year-to-date commands the light commercial vehicles sales segment. Nissan remains in second position in the segment with 11.1% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 8.4% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 36.9% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy- and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 37.9% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remain under pressure, with the year-to-date new vehicle sales in 2019 currently below 2011 levels, and the total new vehicle sales for the last 12 months down 5.7% from the same period in 2018. The prospects for new vehicle sales remain dim in the short- to medium-term as government remains committed to fiscal consolidation and the economy remains in a recession, putting pressure on demand and investment.

A total of 1,055 new vehicles were sold in May, a 13.9% m/m increase from the 926 vehicles sold in April. Year-to-date, 4,346 vehicles have been sold of which 2,094 were passenger vehicles, 2,015 were light commercial vehicles, and 237 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales increased by 1.4% m/m to 11,559 new vehicles sold as at the end of May 2019. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend, contracting by 5.0% from the 12,172 new vehicles sold over the comparable period a year ago.

512 New passenger vehicle sales were sold in May, an increased by 10.3% m/m and 39.1% y/y. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,094 units, reflecting lower cumulative sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 2.2% decline from the year-to-date figure recorded in May 2018. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales rose 2.9% m/m, but continued to slide on an annual basis, contracting by 1.8% y/y.

A total of 543 new commercial vehicles were sold in May, 17.5% more than in April and 1.9% more than in May 2018. Of the 543 commercial vehicles sold in May, 472 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 13 as medium commercial vehicles and 58 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 8.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 2.3% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose by 9.0% y/y. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales seem to have quelled the downward trend on a twelve-month cumulative basis. Medium commercial vehicle sales have registered modest growth by this measure for 8 consecutive months now, while heavy commercial vehicle sales have posted growth for the first time since early 2016.

Volkswagen leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 33.4% of the segment sales thus far in 2019. Toyota retained second place with 30.2% of the market-share as at the end of May. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes round out the top selling brands in the segment with 5.2%, 4.8% and 4.7% market share year-to-date. This leaves the remaining 21.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota remained the best-selling brand in the light commercial vehicle sales segment with 61.9% of the market share year-to-date. Ford drops to third place in the segment with 8.7% of the market share after being displaced by Nissan with 9.1% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 40.3% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 38.2 of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remain under pressure as is evident in the figures below. Year-to-date new vehicle sales in 2019 are currently below 2011 levels, reflective of depressed business and consumer confidence. Total new vehicle sales for the last 12 months is 49% down from peak levels seen in 2015.   Vehicle sales is a lagging economic indicator and thus tells us little about what to expect going forward, but illustrates the extent of the downturn we have been through thus far.

A total of 926 new vehicles were sold in April, a 1.1% m/m contraction from the 936 vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, 3,291 vehicles have been sold of which 1,582 were passenger vehicles, 1,543 light commercial vehicles, and 166 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales increased by 1.1% m/m to 11,405 new vehicles sold as at the end of April 2019. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend, contracting by 8.2% from the 12,423 new vehicles sold over the comparable period a year ago.

New passenger vehicle sales increased by 10.0% m/m in April, to 464 units. On an annual basis an increase of 29.9% was recorded as April saw an increase in monthly passenger vehicle sales from March for the first time since 1998. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,582 units, reflecting lower cumulative sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 10.8% decline from the year-to-date figure recorded in April 2018. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales rose 2.2% m/m, but continued to slide on an annual basis, contracting 6.9% y/y.

A total of 462 new commercial vehicles were sold in April, contractions of 10.1% m/m and 15.3% y/y. Of the 462 commercial vehicles sold in April, 408 were classified as light vehicles, 16 as medium vehicles and 38 as heavy vehicles. On a year-on-year basis for the month of April light commercial sales rose by 4.3%, medium commercial sales fell by 36.0%, and heavy and extra heavy sales grew by 26.7%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 9.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 2.2% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 4.3% y/y. While medium commercial vehicles have recorded growth in twelve-month cumulative sales over the last seven months, the light and heavy segments of the market continue to see lower volumes sold than in 2018, already a low base. This is an indication that businesses are yet to increase capital deployment in any meaningful way as business confidence remains under pressure.

Volkswagen once again leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 31.6% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota dropped to second place by this measure with 30.3% of the market-share as at the end of April. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford each command around 5.0% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 17.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota, with a strong market-share of 63.3% ytd, commands the light commercial vehicles sales segment. Ford remains in second position in the segment with 9.3% of the market, while Nissan makes up third place with 6.5% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 40.7% ytd of sales, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 31.8% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales continue to point to low consumer and business confidence. Anecdotal evidence, as well as Bidvest Namibia automotive division results over the last two years, show struggling dealerships. After eleven quarters of largely stagnant economic activity in Namibia it is hardly surprising that confidence remains low. At present there are few signs that the business cycle is turning, with a global slowdown providing headwinds to an outlook already weighed down by drought. At present there are few prospects for stimulus as government continues to run large budget deficits, with debt largely funding consumption. One of the few levers we believe is available to government at present is policy clarity and growth friendly policy. Clarity on empowerment and investment policy is crucial in 2019, as well as SOE reform.