Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 559 new vehicles were sold in October, representing a 36.1% m/m decline from the 875 vehicles sold in September, and a 42.4% y/y contraction from the 971 new vehicles sold in October 2019. Year-to-date 6,215 vehicles have been sold of which 2,542 were passenger vehicles, 3,233 were light commercial vehicles, and 440 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales continued its downward trend with 7,804 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 27.3% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year, and the lowest since March 2005.

296 new passenger vehicles were sold in October, an increase of 6.1% m/m, but contracting by 16.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,542 units, down 34.6% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in October 2019. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 30.4% y/y as the number of passenger vehicles sold continued to decline. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2004 at 3,203 units, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Following the strong uptick in commercial vehicle sales in September when 596 units were sold, new commercial vehicle sales fell to 263 in October, contracting by 55.9% m/m and 57.3% y/y. Of the 263 commercial vehicles sold, 217 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 18 as medium commercial vehicles, and 28 as heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 25.3% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 19.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 24.7% y/y, with all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 28.4% of the segment sales year-to-date, followed closely by Volkswagen with 26.1% of the market share. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.7% and 5.9% of the market respectively, leaving the remaining 32.8% of the market to other brands.

Toyota retains a strong year-to-date market share of 56.5% and remains the market leader in the light commercial vehicle segment. Nissan remains in the second position in the segment with 12.6% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 11.6% of the year-to-date sales. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.7% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.8% of the market share year-to-date, closely followed by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 19.7% and 17.6% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

Following the relatively strong vehicle sales recorded in September, new vehicle sales reverted to the levels seen in prior months. The month of October has historically been one of the stronger months regarding new vehicle sales, but October 2020’s sales of 559 units lagged the average number of vehicles sold during the month by 682 vehicles. A slowdown in government spending in real terms, coupled with a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance has resulted in a stagnant economy and as a result erosion of consumer and business confidence. This stagnation has been further intensified by strict lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of Covid-19.

While it is still early days, it does seem like the recently introduced 72-month vehicle loans have had a small positive impact on new passenger vehicle sales after two consecutive months of growth in this segment, albeit off a low base. However, as it is unlikely that economic conditions will improve significantly in the short- to medium-term, we expect the demand for new vehicles to remain low.

874 New vehicles were sold in September, an increase of 46.9% m/m from the 595 vehicles sold in August, and an 8.4% y/y increase from the 806 new vehicles sold in September 2019. September is only the second month this year where new vehicle sales topped sales in 2019 on a year-on-year basis. Year-to-date 5,655 vehicles have been sold of which 2,245 were passenger vehicles, 3,016 were light commercial vehicles, and 394 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued to trend downward with 8,215 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 23.1% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year.

A total of 278 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, representing a 34.3% m/m increase but a 13.1% y/y contraction. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,245 units, down 36.5% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in September 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since June 2004 at 3,261 units, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales. Consumer confidence has been plagued by poor economic conditions since 2016 and this has been further impacted by job losses and pay cuts this year brought on by Covid related lockdowns.  

The best month of 2020 in commercial vehicles sales thus far was recorded in September with 596 units sold. This is a 53.6% m/m, and 22.6% y/y increase. 537 Light commercial vehicles, 15 medium commercial vehicles, and 44 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis light commercial vehicle are down 18% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 14.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 17.1% y/y, all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota remains the leader in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold with 28.4% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 26.9%. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.6% and 6.0% of the market respectively. No other manufacturer managed to breach the 5% market-share mark.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a dominant 59.1% market share. Nissan and Ford were the only other manufacturers to breach the 10% market share level with 11.8% and 10.8% of the market respectively. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.3% of sales year-to-date, closely followed by Hino with 27.3% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.1% of the market share year-to-date, closely followed by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 19.1% and 17.6% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

September marks only the second month of 2020 where monthly new vehicle sales topped sales from the corresponding month in 2019, the other being February. The general trend in new vehicle sales remains negative as can be expected in an economy performing poorly. Consumers have been under pressure for a number of years now as the economy started to cool in 2015 after five years of rapid growth between 2010 and 2015. A slowdown in government spending in real terms, coupled with a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance have resulted in a stagnant economy and as a result erosion of consumer and business confidence. This stagnation has been further exacerbated by lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of Covid 19.

A multitude of obstacles thus weigh on a return to growth for the Namibian economy, not least of which is the poor policy overhang. We thus expect the Namibian economy to remain fragile for the foreseeable future, and we expect this to be reflected in vehicle sales, building plan approvals as well as PSCE and other high frequency indicators.

593 New vehicles were sold in August, an 11.0% m/m contraction from the 666 vehicles sold in July, and a 26.6% y/y decline from the 808 new vehicles sold in August 2019. Year-to-date 4,776 vehicles have been sold of which 1,962 were passenger vehicles, 2,479 were light commercial vehicles, and 218 were were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend with 8,142 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 25.0% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year.

A total of 205 new passenger vehicles were sold during August, representing a 9.7% m/m and 43.1% y/y contraction. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,962 units, down 39.0% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in August 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since July 2004, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicles sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 26.4% year-to-date and 21.7% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. 388 New commercial vehicles were sold in August, a contraction of 11.6% m/m and 13.4% y/y. 323 Light commercial vehicles, 21 medium commercial vehicles, and 44 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped by 23.1% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 11.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 10.2% y/y. 

During the month, Toyota retook the lead from Volkswagen in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 28.7% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.3% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 6.5% and 6.0% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a robust 57.2% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 12.7% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 10.9% and 7.5%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 29.1% of sales year-to-date. Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 24.3% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The new vehicle sales figures show how badly economic activity has been hampered since the lockdowns were imposed. New vehicle sales are down considerably when compared to 2019, which by itself was a bad year for vehicle sales. We expect the current depressed trend in new vehicle sales to remain depressed for the medium term as there are currently very few catalysts for economic growth. It is unlikely that many businesses and consumers will be in a financial position to purchase new vehicles for the rest of the year.