Category Archives: Private Sector Credit Extension

Overall

Total credit extended to the private sector (PSCE) increased by N$180.1 million or 0.19% in January, bringing cumulative credit outstanding to N$97.1 billion. On a year-on-year basis, credit extended grew by 7.16% in January, compared to 7.37% in December. Cumulative credit extended to the private sector over the last 12-months amounted to N$6.48 billion. Individuals took up N$3.58 billion worth of credit over the last 12-month, corporates took up N$2.31 billion, and claims on the non-resident private sector accounted for N$598.1 million.

Credit Extension to Individuals

Credit extended to individuals increased by 0.3% m/m and 6.7% y/y in January, versus 0.7% m/m and 6.9% y/y in December. Mortgage loans extended to individuals increased by 7.7% y/y in January, in line with the increase seen in December. Other loans and advances (which is made up of credit card debt, personal and term loans) grew by 0.6% m/m and 18.3% y/y in January. Installment credit, which is quite often used to purchase new vehicles, contracted by 6.8% y/y. Household demand for overdraft facilities was quite strong in January, increasing by 2.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, compared to the 1.8% m/m and 4.2% y/y increase seen in December.

Credit Extension to Corporates

Credit extension to corporates increased by 6.3% y/y in January, moderating slightly from the 6.5% y/y increase recorded in December. On a month-on-month basis, credit extension to corporates rose 0.1% after decreasing by 0.3% in December. Installment credit extended to corporates, which has been contracting since February 2017 on an annual basis remained depressed, contracting by 8.8% y/y in January. Leasing transactions to corporates declined further in January by 20.0% y/y. Overdraft facilities extended to corporates rose by 4.5% m/m and 11.4% y/y. Mortgage loans to corporates rose by 2.5% y/y, while other loans and advances increased by 28.1% y/y.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The overall liquidity position of commercial banks fell by a hefty N$2.6 billion to reach an average of N$262.1 million during January from N$2.8 billion in December. According to the Bank of Namibia (BoN), the decline is attributable to corporate tax payments made at the end of December, as well as the usual slow spending from the Government during January each year. There has been an increase in use of the BoN’s repo facility by commercial banks, with the outstanding balance of repo’s increasing from N$1.29 billion at the start of January to N$2.29 billion by month end. The use of the facility is a further sign that some banks are facing challenges in terms of liquidity.

Reserves and Money Supply

As per the BoN’s latest money statistics release, board money supply rose by N$7.3 billion or 7.6% y/y in January, but decreased by N$622.4 million or 0.6% m/m. Foreign reserve balances fell by N$228.6 million to N$30.7 billion in January, representing a 0.7% m/m contraction in reserves. The BoN stated that the decrease in reserves was due to net purchases of the South African rand by commercial banks for investment purposes abroad and import payments.

Outlook

Although growth in PSCE moderated for a second consecutive month, the 7.16% y/y increase was still a faster rate of increase than in most months in 2018. Rolling 12-month private sector credit issuance is up 50.5% from the N$4.31 billion issuance observed at the end of January 2018, with individuals taking up most (55.2%) of the credit extended over the past 12 months.

As a result of the recessionary environment Namibia finds itself in, short-term and unsecured loans continue to grow at a quicker rate than that of mortgage and installment credit, as is evident by the 3.9% m/m increase in overdrafts during the month. Short-term borrowing satisfies short-term needs, and the subdued uptake of productive credit by corporations is a clear indication that business confidence remains depressed. The uptake of short-term credit is unlikely to drive meaningful expansion of productive capacity.

Overall

Private sector credit extension (PSCE) rose by N$751 million or 0.8% m/m in November, compared to the N$585 million or 0.6% m/m increase recorded in October. Year-on-Year, PSCE grew by almost 8.0% in November compared to 7.8% y/y in October. November has also been the fourth consecutive month in which PSCE growth has kept rising on a year-on-year basis. Cumulative private sector credit outstanding as at the end of November amounted to N$96.645 billion. On an annual basis, households were taking up much of the credit extended to the private sector in 2018, accounting for almost two-thirds of the uptake. However, that wide disproportion between credit extended to households and corporations began to narrow in August. On a rolling 12-month basis N$7.126 billion worth of credit was extended to the private sector with N$3.26 billion being taken up by households. Corporations very nearly equaled that which was extended to households by taking up N$3.21 billion worth of the credit over the last 12-months, while claims on non-residents totaled N$663.2 million.

Credit extension to individuals

Credit extended to individuals increased by 6.1% y/y in November, moderating from the 7.0% y/y increase recorded in October. The year-on-year slowdown in household credit extension was due to moderating growth in mortgages, overdrafts, installment credit and other claims. Mortgage loans increased by 6.9% compared to 8.0% a year ago, while overdrafts increased by just 0.9% versus 8.5% in the prior year. Installment credit contracted by 6.8%, worse than the 2.6% contraction registered during the corresponding period in 2017. On a monthly basis, household credit growth printed flat following a modest increase of 0.7% m/m recorded in October. Mortgage credit contracted by 0.3% m/m along with a 0.9% contraction in installment credit. Other loans and advances increased by 2.1% m/m followed by a 0.4% m/m increase in overdrafts. Leasing transactions increased the most in the household’s category, 14% m/m, although significantly slower than the 70.3% m/m growth registered in October.

Credit extension to corporates

Credit extension to corporates increased by 8.9% y/y compared to October’s 7.1% y/y increase. The November increase in corporate credit has been the highest since March 2017 and the fifth consecutive month in which corporate credit has been increasing at a faster pace on a year-on-year basis. Shorter-term credit facilities continue to be driving the increase in corporate credit extension. Other loans and advances increased by 28.2% y/y and overdrafts increased by 18.5% y/y. Mortgage loans to businesses increased by 5.6% y/y in November, slowing from the 8.5% y/y increased recorded the corresponding period in 2017. On a monthly basis credit extended to businesses was the main reason for the overall increase in PSCE. Corporates made use of overdraft facilities in November, increasing overdraft loans by 8.9% m/m, followed by corporate mortgage lending which increased by 4.9% m/m.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The overall liquidity position of commercial banks declined by N$1.1 billion to reach an average of N$2.3 billion during November from N$3.4 billion in October. Bank of Namibia attributes the decline in liquidity to foreign currency outflows as a result of trade-related payments.

Reserves and money supply

As per BoN latest money statistics release, broad money supply increased by N$7.24 billion or 7.4% y/y in November but decreasing 1.7% m/m by N$1.87 billion. Foreign reserve balances declined by N$1.56 billion to N$29.5 billion in November from N$31.1 billion in October, representing a 5.0% m/m fall in reserves. BoN attributes the decline in reserves to net capital outflows from commercial banks to fund foreign currency purchases, in addition to an interest payment for the US$500 million Eurobond. A stronger Namibian dollar versus the US dollar during the period under review further contributed to the decline in foreign reserves.

Outlook

Overall PSCE growth in November maintained its upward momentum on a year-on-year basis for a fourth consecutive month, increasing by 7.96% y/y. The highest rate of growth in the last 18 months. The year 2018, with the omission of pending December PSCE data, has seen very little deleveraging from both consumers and businesses. In the midst of recessionary economic growth short-term and unsecured loans have grown at a quicker rate than that of mortgage and instalment credit. From a 12-month rolling perspective household demand for credit underpinned growth in PSCE and only until recently have businesses started borrowing more. The increase in corporate credit, however, has been more profound in short-term borrowings.

The Bank of Namibia (BoN) has been accommodative in terms of monetary policy by keeping the repo rate steady at 6.75% since cutting by 25bps in August 2017. How long BoN manages to keep interest rates steady will depend largely on developments in South Africa. The SARB will closely monitor inflation, which ticked up to 5.2% y/y and is expected to moderate on the back of falling oil prices and moderating transport inflation. Furthermore, the SA economy broke out of a recession and the outlook for possible rate hikes is now pushed towards the latter part of 2019. Domestically, BoN will be weary of worsening economic conditions, projecting weaker growth in its December Economic Update. BoN expects the Namibia economy to contract by 0.2% in 2018 followed by growth of 1.5% in 2019, a downward revision from its 1.9% estimation in July 2018 and more than half of the 3.1% it estimated in December 2017.

Overall

Private sector credit extension (PSCE) rose by N$585 million or 0.6% m/m in October, compared to the N$524 million or 0.6% m/m increase recorded in September. Year-on-Year, PSCE growth edged up to 7.8% in October compared to 7.3% y/y in September. Cumulative private sector credit outstanding as at the end of October amounted to N$95.893 billion. On an annual basis household appetite for credit continues to outweigh that of businesses. However, the gap between credit extended to households and to corporates has narrowed slightly, owing to an increase in the uptake of credit by corporates observed over the past three months. On a rolling 12-month basis N$6.897 billion worth of credit was extended to the private sector with N$3.7 billion being taken up by households. Corporations took up N$2.53 billion worth of credit over the last 12-months, and claims on non-residents totaled N$662.7 million.

Credit extension to individuals

Credit extended to individuals increased by 7.0% y/y in October, growing at a slightly slower pace than the 8.0% y/y increase recorded in September. On a monthly basis household credit increased by 0.7%, marginally quicker than the 0.5% m/m growth registered in September. The monthly increase in household credit extension was driven by increases in the mortgage loans and other loans and advances categories which increased by 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively. Compared to October 2017, mortgage loans increased by 8.2% y/y while other loans and advances rose by 18.7% y/y. The effects of the amendments to the national credit act have proven to be long-lasting and have resulted in installment credit realizing negative growth rates since August 2017. Household installment credit contracted by 6.0% y/y in October following a 4.9% y/y contraction in September.

Credit extension to corporates

Credit extension to corporates increased at a quicker pace in October than in September, increasing by 7.1% y/y compared to September’s 4.5% y/y increase. The year-on-year uptick in overall credit extended to corporates has been due to an increase in the use of short-term credit facilities, in particular other loans and advances, picking up from low growth rates in the corresponding period a year ago. Other loans and advances extended to businesses increased by 30.1% y/y and 4.6% m/m. Overdrafts recorded the second highest increase in credit extension to corporates, increasing by 9.8% y/y due to base effects. On a month-on-month basis overdraft credit declined by 0.8% as businesses repaid outstanding overdrawn accounts on net.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The overall liquidity position of commercial banks experienced a substantial decline of N$1.3 billion to reach an average of N$3.4 billion during October from N$4.7 billion in September. Bank of Namibia attributes the decline in liquidity to investors withdrawing idle funds in search of higher yielding assets as well as for facilitating cross-border payments. During the month of October, overall short-term money market rates in SA have trended higher than those in Namibia, which explains the Namibian exodus to some extent. Furthermore, there has been an increase in use of BoN’s repo facility by commercial banks, with the outstanding balance of repo’s increasing from N$147 million at the start of October to N$434 million by month end.

Reserves and money supply

As per BoN latest money statistics release, broad money supply rose by N$13.32 billion or 14.2% y/y in October following a 12.5% y/y increase in September. Foreign reserve balances declined by N$1.41 billion to N$31.1 billion in October from N$32.5 billion in September, representing a 4.3% m/m fall in reserves. BoN attributes the decrease in reserves to commercial banks facilitating foreign currency payments which resulted in net capital outflows, in addition to an interest payment for the US$750 million Eurobond. The governor noted, during the MPC press briefing, that BoN has observed further declines in reserves for the month of November. The governor pointed out that businesses are busy stockpiling in a bid to ensure they meet the seasonal uptick in demand expected around year-end.  Foreign balances are likely to pick up over the next couple of months with the pending release of the delayed N$3 billion disbursement due from the African Development Bank’s loan facility.

Outlook

PSCE ticked up for a third consecutive month, reaching a 17-month high growth rate of 7.3% on a year-on-year basis. PSCE has failed to increase by double digit figures for the past two years. The last time it did so was in October 2017 when PSCE increased by 10.2% y/y. Corporate demand for credit has been ticking up modestly. However, for the majority of 2018 household demand for credit has been driving PSCE growth. Household driven PSCE growth is unsustainable in the long-run, especially when borrowing has been used for consumptive purposes. Growth is likely to become constricted in an environment where the consumer is heavily indebted and the refinancing, and approval of new loans becomes more difficult due to eligibility. The recent increase in credit extended to corporates has been a welcome sight. However, the current economic downturn has led to corporates taking on more short-term credit which does point to businesses borrowing simply to stay afloat.

The near-term outlook for PSCE will hinge very much on how quickly, or slowly, consumer and business confidence recovers, and to a larger extent the impact monetary policy will have. Consumer confidence feeds through to business confidence. Increased consumer demand triggers more business production that must meet this demand, thus incentivising businesses to borrow in order to fund capital projects. Borrowing has been predominantly short-term however, and short-term borrowing satisfies short-term needs which is unlikely to drive much meaningful expansion of productive capacity.

Indebted consumers got some form of relief when the BoN left the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% during its December MPC meeting. A decision the MPC deemed appropriate to maintain the one-to-one link between the Namibian dollar and the SA rand. This follows a month after the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised its repo rate by 25bps. BoN chose a more accommodative response, having kept a 25bp buffer between its rate and that of the SARB since March 2018. The current interest rate environment is relatively more relaxed compared to historical rates observed over the last eighteen years. Our expectations are for interest rates to remain accommodative in the near-term. However, BoN will be mindful of possible increases in SA rates and move to adjust local rates accordingly. Higher interest rates in SA will very likely lead to capital outflows from Namibia, which in turn jeopardises foreign reserve levels, and therefore the currency peg.