Building Plans – April 2021

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 250 building plans in April, representing a 9.6% m/m increase from the 228 building plans approved in March. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$234.1 million, a 48.1% m/m increase. 199 buildings with a value of N$93.12 million were completed during April, a 1.2% m/m decrease in value terms. Year-to-date building approvals are 65.9% and 15.0% higher in number and value terms, respectively than during the same period in 2020. This increase is however mostly due to stagnant construction activity during the lockdown last year. Year-to-date, the number of completed buildings increased by 44.7% y/y to 495, while the value of these completions rose marginally by 8.3% y/y from N$276.3 million in 2020 to N$299.4 million in 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,608 buildings with the value of N$1.94 billion were approved, an increase of 39.8% y/y in number, and 7.2% y/y in value.

In terms of the number of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the majority of approvals. In April, 166 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$93.0 million while 168 additions worth N$60.0 million were completed during the month. The number of approvals has been ticking up steadily since January. These approvals are however of lower relative value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in April, and the largest contributor in value terms. 80 new units worth N$129.5 million were rubber-stamped in April, representing a 49.1% m/m increase from the N$86.9 million worth of approvals in March. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 108.3% y/y increase in value. 31 new residential units worth N$33.1 million were completed during the month, representing a decrease in value of 36.2% m/m.

Four new commercial units, valued at N$11.6 million, were approved in April, translating to a 65.8% m/m increase. Year-to-date, there have been twelve commercial building approvals valued at N$26.1 million, which is 50.0% lower in number terms and an 89.4% decrease in value terms compared to the same period last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 29 units worth N$110.3 million as at April, compared to the 57 approved units worth N$654.2 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in April.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 39.8% y/y in April. A total of 2,608 building plans to the value of N$1.94 billion were approved over the last 12 months, representing an increase in value of 7.2% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 65.0% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 40.2% of the total value of approvals. Completed building plans increased 16.3% y/y in value terms to N$1.56 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis in April. Although residential building plan approvals have gained momentum, the commercial sector remains woeful, contributing a mere 2.0% of the N$299.4 million total building completions so far in 2021. Furthermore, with only 4.1% of building approvals attributable to the commercial sector, this trend seems unlikely to change in the near term. Residential approvals continue to contribute the most in value terms, with 56.3% of approvals and 64.0% of completions, overall indicating a lively housing market.

Building Plans – March 2021

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 228 building plans in March, representing an 3.2% m/m increase from the 221 building plans approved in February. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$158.1 million, a 3.6% m/m increase, while buildings with a value of N$94.3 million were completed during March, a 73.4% m/m increase. Although the number of building approvals for 2021 are 15.4% higher than the same period of 2020, the value of these approvals has fallen relatively sharply by 27.1% y/y, from N$556.7 million in 2020 to N$406.0 million in 2021. Year-to-date, the number of completed buildings rose to 296, a decrease of 13.5% y/y. The value of these completions are down 25.4% y/y from N$276.3 million in 2020 to N$206.3 million in 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,358 buildings with the value of N$1.7 billion were approved, an increase of 15.9% in number, yet a decrease of 13.8% in value, similar to the previous 3 months.  

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals, with 63 percent. For the month of March, 143 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$64.2 million, 11 fewer than in March 2020. The value of the additions approved in March is 11.0% higher than those observed in March 2020. 138 additions worth N$36.9 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in March, but the largest contributor in value terms. 81 new units worth N$86.9 million were approved in March, representing a 728.4% increase from the N$10.5 million worth of approvals in March 2020. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 71.1% y/y increase in value. 68 new residential units worth N$52.0 million were completed during the month.

Four new commercial units, valued at N$7.0 million, were approved in March. This compares to 5 units valued at N$89.1 million approved in March 2020. Year-to-date, there have been eight commercial building approvals valued at N$14.5 million, which translates to a 15.4% increase in number terms and a 27.1% decrease in value terms compared to the same period last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 25 units worth N$98.7 million as at March, compared to the 63 approved units worth N$730.2 million over the corresponding period a year ago. Three commercial and industrial units worth N$5.5 million were completed in March.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 15.9% y/y in March. A total of 2,358 building plans to the value of N$1.70 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decline in value of 13.8% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 64.9% of the cumulative number of approvals, and 40.3% of the total value of approvals. Completed building plans, increased by 5.1% y/y in value terms to N$1.47 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis in March. Although 12-month cumulative value of approvals fell in March, residential building plans seem to have started gaining momentum, recording 10 consecutive months of year-on-year increases in the number of residential approvals, in which 7 of the 10 months recorded increases in value terms. In contrast, the commercial sector reflects Namibia’s uncertain business outlook, with only 8 commercial and industrial building approvals year-to-date. Furthermore, when factoring out commercial and industrial building approvals, the 12-month cumulative value of approvals rose by 28.8% y/y in March. On the one hand, this reflects the relatively strong recent growth witnessed in the residential plans approved, on the other hand, it raises concern about the country’s commercial sector, which made up 38.5% of the value of total approvals at the peak of the construction industry, in September 2013, compared to only 4.4% in March 2021.

Building Plans – February 2021

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 221 building plans in February, representing an 81.1% m/m increase from the 122 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$163.9 million, a 95.1% m/m increase, while buildings with a value of N$54.4 million were completed during February, a 5.5% m/m decrease. Although the number of building approvals for 2021 are 5.2% higher than the same period of 2020, the value of these approvals has fallen sharply by 40.1% y/y, from N$414.2 million in 2020 to N$248 million in 2021. In contrast, the number of completed buildings increased by 29.9% y/y year-to-date to 87, while the value of these completions rose by 93.3% y/y from N$57.9 million in 2020 to N$112 million in 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,299 buildings with the value of N$1.69 billion were approved, an increase of 13.6% in number, yet a decrease of 14% in value, similar to the previous 2 months.  

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of February, 131 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$70.6 million, 33 fewer than in February 2020. The value of the additions approved in February is 27.1% lower than those observed in February 2020. 11 additions worth N$4.61 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in February, but the largest contributor in value terms. 87 new units worth N$92.8 million were approved in February, representing a 14.5% decrease from the N$108.6 million worth of approvals in February 2020. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 50.8% y/y increase in value. 42 new residential units worth N$49.8 million were completed during the month.

Three new commercial units, valued at N$505,000, were approved in February. This compares to 13 units valued at N$21.92 million approved in February 2020. Year-to-date, there have been 4 commercial building approvals valued at N$7.5 million, which translates to a 5.2% increase in number terms and a 40.1% decrease in value terms compared to the same period last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 26 units worth N$180.8 million as at February, compared to the 61 approved units worth N$647.3 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in February.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 13.6% y/y in February. A total of 2,299 building plans to the value of N$1.69 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decline in value of 14.0% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 67% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 39.4% of the total value of approvals. Completed building plans, a lagging indicator, looks positive, increasing by 27% y/y in value terms to N$1.59 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis in February. Approved building plans, a leading indicator has consistently ticked up in number terms since August 2020. Although the value of these approvals fell by 14.0% y/y on a 12-month cumulative basis, the value of residential building approvals and additions to properties rose by 14.6%. The overall decline in value of approvals was thus mainly due to a large contraction in commercial building plan approvals, which has consistently declined in value terms on a rolling 12-month basis since September last year. Overall, Namibia’s housing market displays positive trends in both the 12-month cumulative value of plans completed as well as plans approved. The decline in commercial building plans approvals and completions is however concerning and reflects Namibia’s uncertain business outlook.