Building Plans – February 2021

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 221 building plans in February, representing an 81.1% m/m increase from the 122 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$163.9 million, a 95.1% m/m increase, while buildings with a value of N$54.4 million were completed during February, a 5.5% m/m decrease. Although the number of building approvals for 2021 are 5.2% higher than the same period of 2020, the value of these approvals has fallen sharply by 40.1% y/y, from N$414.2 million in 2020 to N$248 million in 2021. In contrast, the number of completed buildings increased by 29.9% y/y year-to-date to 87, while the value of these completions rose by 93.3% y/y from N$57.9 million in 2020 to N$112 million in 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,299 buildings with the value of N$1.69 billion were approved, an increase of 13.6% in number, yet a decrease of 14% in value, similar to the previous 2 months.  

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of February, 131 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$70.6 million, 33 fewer than in February 2020. The value of the additions approved in February is 27.1% lower than those observed in February 2020. 11 additions worth N$4.61 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in February, but the largest contributor in value terms. 87 new units worth N$92.8 million were approved in February, representing a 14.5% decrease from the N$108.6 million worth of approvals in February 2020. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 50.8% y/y increase in value. 42 new residential units worth N$49.8 million were completed during the month.

Three new commercial units, valued at N$505,000, were approved in February. This compares to 13 units valued at N$21.92 million approved in February 2020. Year-to-date, there have been 4 commercial building approvals valued at N$7.5 million, which translates to a 5.2% increase in number terms and a 40.1% decrease in value terms compared to the same period last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 26 units worth N$180.8 million as at February, compared to the 61 approved units worth N$647.3 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in February.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 13.6% y/y in February. A total of 2,299 building plans to the value of N$1.69 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decline in value of 14.0% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 67% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 39.4% of the total value of approvals. Completed building plans, a lagging indicator, looks positive, increasing by 27% y/y in value terms to N$1.59 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis in February. Approved building plans, a leading indicator has consistently ticked up in number terms since August 2020. Although the value of these approvals fell by 14.0% y/y on a 12-month cumulative basis, the value of residential building approvals and additions to properties rose by 14.6%. The overall decline in value of approvals was thus mainly due to a large contraction in commercial building plan approvals, which has consistently declined in value terms on a rolling 12-month basis since September last year. Overall, Namibia’s housing market displays positive trends in both the 12-month cumulative value of plans completed as well as plans approved. The decline in commercial building plans approvals and completions is however concerning and reflects Namibia’s uncertain business outlook.

Building Plans – January 2021

A total of 122 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in January, representing a 6.1% m/m increase from the 115 building plans approved in December. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$84.0 million, an 11.5% m/m increase,  while buildings with a value of N$57.6 million were completed during January, a 79.9% m/m increase. 2021 is off to a slower start in terms of value of approvals, compared to January 2020 when 121 building plans worth N$189.4 million got the nod. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,283 building plans worth approximately N$1.75 billion were approved, an increase in number of 14.7% y/y, but a decline of 8.5% y/y in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of January, 71 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$25.7 million, 7 more than the number of additions approved in January 2020. The value of the additions approved in January is however 55.6% lower than those observed in the first month of 2020. 4 additions worth N$890,000 were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in January. 50 new units worth N$51.3 million were approved in January, representing a 102.9% increase from the N$51.3 million worth of approvals in the first month of 2020. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 74.6% y/y increase in value. 30 new residential units worth N$57.6 million were completed during the month.

Only 1 new commercial unit, valued at N$7.0 million, was approved in January. This compares to 6 units valued at N$136.0 million approved in January 2020. On average over the last 20 years, 4 commercial units valued at N$26.5 million were approved in the first month of the year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 36 units worth N$202.2 million as at January, compared to the 51 approved units worth N$641.6 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in January.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 14.7% y/y in January. A total of 2,283 building plans to the value of N$1.75 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decline in value terms of 8.5% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 68.9% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 39.4% of the total value of approvals, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The low single digit number of commercial approvals witnessed over the last 11 months indicates that most businesses are not planning on expanding their existing operations. It is evident that the Namibian construction industry continues to tread water as the value of approvals continues to decline in real terms.

Building Plans – December 2020

A total of 115 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in December, which is a 57.6% m/m decline from the 271 building plans approved in November. In value terms, approvals fell by 68.2% m/m to register N$75.4 million worth of approvals in December, compared to N$237.2 million in November. A total of 51 building plans worth N$32.0 million were completed during the month, representing an increase of 13.3% y/y in number, but a decline of 12.0% in value of completions. A total of 2,282 building plans were approved in 2020, 250 more than in 2019. However, in value terms approvals fell by 7.0% in 2020, declining from N$1.99 billion in 2019 to N$1.85 billion in 2020.

Additions to properties once again made up the majority of building plans approved in 2020. Of the 2,282 building plans approved in 2020, additions accounted for 1,601 of these approvals, 29 fewer than in 2019. In value terms, approvals of additions for the year declined by N$78.3 million or 10.1% y/y. The value of additions approved has been contracting for the past five years, with a decline of 10.1% recorded in 2020 following the 16.3% contraction in 2019. 84 additions were approved in December, 81 fewer than in November and 74.9% lower in value terms at N$23.9 million. During the year, 886 additions have been completed to a value of N$454.1 million, a drop of 30.5% y/y in number and 34.1% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 640 approvals registered in 2020, 285 more than in 2019. In value terms, new residential units approved increased from N$640.8 million in 2019 to N$823.5 million in 2020. On a month-on-month basis, the number of new residential approvals decreased by 71.2% to 30 in December, while the value of approvals declined by 80.9% to N$25.3 million. 30 Residential units valued at N$16.8 million were completed in December, bringing 2020’s total number to 720, up 133.8% y/y, and value to N$1.04 billion, up 155.0% y/y.

A total of 41 commercial and industrial units were approved in 2020 compared to the 47 approved in 2019. In value terms, commercial and industrial approvals fell by N$244.5 million or 42.5% for the year in 2020 from the N$575.6 million reported in 2019. In December, only 1 new commercial unit valued at N$26.2 million was approved, 1 fewer than in November, but a 162.2% m/m increase in terms of value. 1 Commercial and industrial building was completed in December, bringing the year’s total to 12, a 58.6% decline from 2019. In value terms, N$39.7 million worth of commercial and industrial units were completed in 2020, representing a contraction of 78.6% y/y.

The number of building plans approved in 2020 rose by 12.3% compared to 2019, but the cumulative number of plans remains down 32.9% from its peak in 2013. The cumulative value of approvals fell 7.0% y/y to N$1.85 billion in 2020 and is down 29.0% from the peak in 2013 in nominal terms. Building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and the above data implies that the Namibian economy is still showing signs of hardship. The significantly lower commercial building plan approvals in 2020 is another sign of this and indicate that most businesses are not planning on expanding their existing operations.