Category Archives: Building Plans

A total of 306 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in October, 72 more than in September. In value terms, approvals rose by N$194.1 million to N$327.7 million in October from N$133.6 million worth of approvals in September. A total of 65 building plans were completed at a value of N$54.8 million in October, a decrease of 73.4% y/y in number and 50.1% y/y in value of completions. Year-to-date, N$1.54 billion worth of building plans have been approved, 9.6% lower than the comparative period a year ago. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,173 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.83 billion, 1.2% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of October 2019.

The largest number of building plan approvals in October was made up of additions to properties. 186 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$67.0 million, 25.7% higher in number and 15.5% more in value terms than in September. Year-to-date 1,352 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$578.4 million, a 3.4% decline in number and 11.9% y/y decrease in value. 17 additions worth N$15.1 million were completed during the month. Year-to-date 856 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$439.3 million, down 16.7% y/y in number and 8.0% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 115 approvals registered in October, 30 more than in September. In value terms, N$242.9 million worth of residential units were approved in October, an increase of 35.3% m/m and 224.9% y/y. Year-to-date 506 new residential units have been approved worth N$666.2 million, an increase of 60.1% and 36.0% compared to the same time last year. 47 Residential units valued at N$39.3 million were completed in October bringing the year-to-date number to 639, up 151.6% y/y. In value terms this is an increase of 183.0% y/y to N$992.5 million.

5 New commercial units, valued at N$18.0 million, were approved in October, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 38, worth a total of N$295.0 million. Bar one month, the number of approvals for commercial and industrial properties has been languishing in single-digit territory since September 2016 and has an average approval rate of fewer than 4 approvals per month over the last 12 months. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 46 units, worth approximately N$314.8 million, a decrease of 43.6% in value terms from the period ending October 2019. One commercial building plan was recorded as completed in October, valued at N$400,000.

During the last 12 months, 2,173 building plans have been approved, increasing by 11.6% y/y. These approvals were worth a combined N$1.83 billion, an increase in value of 1.2% y/y. The last 3 months have seen a steady uptick in the 12-month cumulative number of plans approved in the capital, but the growth in the cumulative value of plans approved have been lagging, for the most part, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The cumulative value of plans approved is still trending downward from a longer-term perspective, as the graph above indicates.

The value of plans completed has however recovered more significantly as can be seen in the below figure, although as we have cautioned in the past, this could simply be due to a completions backlog (paperwork backlog) which is now being processed by the City of Windhoek, making it difficult to say when the actual construction activity took place.

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 234 building plans worth N$133.6 million in September. In value terms approvals rose by 19.3% m/m but fell by 69.1% y/y. A total of 74 completions to the value of N$115.4 million were recorded in September, a decrease of 67.1% y/y in number but a 5.0% y/y increase in value. The year-to-date value of approved building plans reached N$1.21 billion, 22.7% lower than the comparative period a year ago. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,081 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.64 billion, 10.5% lower in value terms than approvals at the end of September 2019.

The majority of building plan approvals were made up of additions to properties. For the month of September 148 additions were approved worth N$57.8 million, 6.3% less in number and 9.6% less in value than in August. Year-to-date, 1,166 additions have been approved with a value of N$511.6 million, a 4.5% y/y decrease in number and 11.7% y/y decrease in value. 38 additions worth N$18.5 million were completed during the month. In 2020 thus far 839 additions have been completed worth N$424.2 million, an increase of 3.2% y/y in number and 7.4% y/y in value.

New residential units accounted for 85 of the total 234 approvals registered in September, worth N$74.8 million. Year-to-date 391 new residential units have been approved worth N$423.3 million, an increase of 37.2% y/y in number but a decrease of 4.2% y/y in value. 35 new residential units worth N$95.9 million were completed during the month, increases of 84.2% y/y in number and 294.1% y/y in value. Year-to-date 592 residential units have been completed at a value of N$953.2 million, increasing by 163.1% y/y in number and 194.9% y/y in value. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number and value of residential completions are at the highest levels since 2005.   

Only 1 new commercial unit, valued at N$1.0 million, was approved in September, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 33, worth a total of N$277.0 million. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed further to 45 worth N$306.4 million as at September, representing an increase of 2.3% y/y in number and a decrease of 45.0% y/y in value.

As illustrated in the figure above, the cumulative value of building plans approved continues to trend downward in both nominal and inflation adjusted terms. As approvals is a forward-looking measure of expected construction activity this does not bode well for economic activity in the capital in general. What may be positive however is the ratio of completions to lagged approvals seems to indicate a higher proportion of approved building plans actually being completed. This may partly explain why the approvals data failed to predict the below visible increase in completions. Another possible explanation is that there has been a completions backlog (paperwork backlog) which is now being processed, in which case the below graph does not tell us much about when the actual construction activity took place. We thus caution reading too much into the completions data and continue to look at approvals as a leading economic indicator. 

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 235 building plans in August, 10 fewer than in July. In value terms approvals fell by N$29.2 million to N$111.9 million, a 20.7% m/m and 17.4% y/y decrease. A total of 275 completions to the value of N$395.0 million were recorded in August, a rather substantial 183.5% y/y increase in number and 302.5% y/y in value. The year-to-date value of approved building plans reached N$1.08 billion, 5.0% lower than the comparative period a year ago. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,049 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.94 billion, 25.3% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of August 2019.

The majority of building plan approvals were made up of additions to properties. For the month of August 158 additions were approved worth N$64.0 million, 6.6% more in value terms than in July, although the number of additions approved fell by 7.6%% m/m. Year-to-date, 1,018 additions have been approved with a value of N$453.7 million, a 9.6% y/y decline in value terms. 118 additions worth N$28.7 million were completed during the month.

New residential units accounted for 76 of the total 235 approvals registered in August, 5 more than the 71 residential units approved in July. In monetary terms, N$33.0 million worth of residential units were approved in August, representing a 22.5% m/m and 54.4% y/y decrease. 306 New residential units have been approved thus far in 2020, 22.4% more than during the corresponding period in 2019. The year-to-date value of residential approvals reached N$348.5 million, 12.5% lower than during the same period in 2019. 156 new residential units worth N$353.8 million were completed during the month.

Only 1 new commercial unit, valued at N$15.0 million, was approved in August, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 32, worth a total of N$276.0 million. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 51 worth N$616.5 million as at August, representing an increase of 18.6% y/y in number terms and 89.9% y/y in value terms. It is important to note however that these increases are mostly attributable to base effects with a large approval in September 2019 contributing to the increases.

In the last 12 months 2,049 building plans have been approved, increasing by 5.8% y/y. These approvals were worth a combined N$1.94 billion, an increase in value of 25.3% y/y. While this sounds like a strong recovery, the increase is mostly as a result of base effects as a result of very little building activity in 2019. As the graph above shows, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the 12-month cumulative value of approvals is still going down steadily and currently trends at levels last seen in 2010.

The completions data also paints a particularly positive picture when judged at face value. Delving a bit deeper into the numbers however shows that 140 of the 275 completed buildings in August were at Omeya. In our opinion it is unlikely that such a high number of buildings were completed in the month, and could simply be due to the City of Windhoek catching up on its backlog.

Going forward we expect lower value additions to properties to continue making up the majority of approvals.