Building Plans – January 2020

A total of 121 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in January, representing a 33.0% m/m increase from the 91 building plans approved in December. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$189.4 million, an increase of N$23.0 million compared to last month. Buildings with a value of N$16.4 million were completed during January. January 2020 is off to a slower start in terms of both number and value of approvals, compared to January 2019 when 162 building plans worth N$272.7 million got the nod. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,991 building plans worth approximately N$1.90 billion were approved, a decline in number of 6.4% y/y, but an increase of 3.6% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of January, 98 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$35.7 million, 33 fewer than the number of additions approved in January 2019. The value of the additions approved in January is however only N$864,000 less than those observed in the first month of 2019. 14 additions worth N$3.6 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in January. 17 new units worth N$17.8 million were approved in January, representing an 89.4% decrease from the N$167.9 million worth of approvals in the first month of 2019. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 30.3% y/y decrease in number of approvals and a 27.3% y/y decrease in value. 19 new residential units worth N$12.8 million were completed during the month.

Commercial and industrial building plans approved in January amounted to 6 units, worth N$136.0 million. This compares to 2 units valued at N$70.0 million approved in January 2019. On average over the last 20 years, 4 commercial units valued at N$26.2 million were approved in the first month of the year. It is interesting to note that three of January 2020’s approvals, worth N$85.3 million, are part of a large building project planned in the Otjomuise vicinity. No commercial and industrial units were completed in January.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved decreased by 6.4% y/y in January. A total of 1,991 building plans to the value of N$1.91 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents an increase in value terms of 3.6% y/y. The majority of these approvals are additions to properties which are typically of low relative value. While growth in commercial and industrial construction activity has picked up slightly, it is from a low base, and construction activity in the commercial and industrial space remains very subdued. The low number of approvals is an indication that the construction sector is likely to remain under pressure during the rest of the year.

Building Plans – December 2019

A total of 91 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in December, which is a 51.1% m/m decline from the 186 plans approved in November. In value terms, however, approvals increased by 34.6% m/m to register N$166.4 million worth of approvals in December compared to N$123.6 million in November. A total of 45 buildings with a total value of N$36.4 million were completed during December, representing declines of 82.5% m/m and 84.5% m/m in the number and value of completions, respectively. A total of 2,032 building plans were approved in 2019, 86 fewer than in 2018. However, in value terms approvals increased by 8.3% in 2019, rising to N$1.99 billion from N$1.84 billion in 2018.

Additions to properties once again made up the majority of building plans approved in 2019. Of the 2,032 building plans approved in 2018, additions accounted for 1,630 of those approvals, 35 more than in 2018. In value terms however, approvals of additions for the year declined by N$151.2 million or 16.3% y/y. The value of additions approved has been contracting for the past four years, with the 2019 decline of 16.3% following the 13.5% contraction recorded in 2018. 65 additions were approved in December, 100 fewer than in November and 62.1% lower in value terms at N$32.8 million. During the year, 1,275 additions have been completed to a value of N$689.5 million, a drop of 43.9% y/y in number and 8.1% y/y in value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 355 approvals registered in 2019, 125 less than in 2018. In value terms new residential units approved increased from N$532.2 million in 2018 to N$640.8 million in 2019. On a month-on-month basis, the number of new residential approvals increased by 43.8% to 23 in December, while the value of approvals increased by 338.4% to N$123.0 million. This increase in value is mostly due to a single large residential approval of N$77.0 million in Khomasdal. 29 Residential units valued at N$29.5 million were completed in December, bringing 2019’s total number to 308, up 280.2% y/y, and value to N$409.5 million, up 290.8% y/y.

A total of 47 commercial and industrial units were approved in 2019 compared to the 43 approved in 2018. In value terms, commercial and industrial approvals rose by N$195.3 million or 51.4% for the year in 2019 from the N$380.3 million reported in 2018. On a month-on-month basis, a total of three commercial and industrial projects worth N$10.65 million were approved in December, representing a 40.0% m/m reduction in terms of number, but an increase of 16.4% m/m in terms of value. No commercial and industrial buildings were completed in December, leaving 2019’s number of completed buildings in this category unchanged at 29, an 81.3% y/y increase. In value terms, N$185.5 million worth of commercial and industrial units were completed in 2018, representing an increase of 249.9% y/y.

The number of building plans approved in 2019 declined by 4.1% compared to 2018 and the cumulative number of plans is down 40.3% from its peak in 2013. Although there has been an 8.3% y/y increase in the cumulative value of approvals to N$1.99 billion in 2019, the cumulative value of approvals is still down 23.6% from the peak in 2013 in nominal terms. Building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and the above data implies that the Namibian economy is still showing signs of hardship. The value of plans completed has however recovered more significantly during 2019 as can be seen in the below figure.

Building Plans – November 2019

A total of 186 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in November. This is a 13.1% contraction in the number of plans approved on a monthly basis when compared to the 214 building plans approved in October. The approvals were valued at N$123.6 million, a decrease of N$11.0 million or 8.2% compared to the prior month. The number of completions for the month of November stood at 257, valued at N$235.3 million. The year-to-date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$1.83 billion, 2.9% higher than at the end of November 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis 2,032 building plans worth approximately N$1.89 billion have been approved, a decrease of 5.2% y/y in number but an increase of 0.8% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

The largest portion of building plan approvals was once again made up of additions to properties. 165 additions to properties were approved in November, a 120.0% increase year-on-year but 7.8% decrease over the number of additions approved in October. Year-to-date 1,565 additions to properties have been approved with a cumulative value of N$742.9 million, a decline of 14.7% y/y in terms of value compared to the same period in 2018. Completed additions amounted to 231, valued at N$205.4 million, an increase of 7.4%% m/m in number and 149.6% m/m in value. Year-to-date 1,259 additions have been completed to a value of N$682.7 million, a drop of 43.1% y/y in number and 7.3% y/y in value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 16 approvals registered in November, compared to 31 in October. In value terms, N$28.1 million worth of residential units were approved in November, a decreases of 41.3% m/m but an increase of 42.2% y/y. 332 New residential units valued at N$517.9m were approved in the first eleven months of 2019, 29.2% y/y less in number and 1.2% y/y less in value than during the corresponding period in 2018. 25 Residential units valued at N$29.3 million were completed in November bringing the year-to-date number to 279, up 350% y/y, and value to N$380 million, up 270.7% y/y.

Commercial and industrial building plans approved in November amounted to 5 units, worth N$9.2 million. The number of approvals for commercial and industrial properties has been languishing in single digit territory since September 2016 and has an average approval rate of less than 4 approvals per month over the last 12 months. On a year-to-date basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased by 10.0% y/y in November to 44 units, worth approximately N$565.0 million, an increase of 49.0% in value terms over the period ending November 2018. One commercial and industrial building plan was recorded as completed in November, valued at N$600,000.

During the last 12 months, 2,032 building plans have been approved, decreasing by 5.2% y/y. These approvals were worth a combined N$1.89 billion, an increase in value of 0.8% y/y. The last 3 months have seen a steady uptick in the 12-month cumulative value of plans approved in the capital although this measure is still trending downward from a longer term perspective. The value of plans completed has however recovered more significantly as can be seen in the below figure.