New Vehicle Sales – April 2021

755 new vehicles were sold in April, a decrease of 17.9% m/m from the 919 vehicles sold in March. As at 30 April, 3,260 new vehicles were sold for the year, of which 1,489 were passenger vehicles, 1,516 light commercial vehicles, and 255 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. By comparison, the first four months of 2020 saw 2,270 new vehicles sold. 2021 is thus off to a better start compared to last year, although vehicle sales were adversely affected by strict lockdown restrictions during April last year. Due to car dealerships being closed last year April as a result of the strict lockdown measures, year-on-year comparisons are somewhat meaningless. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 8,601 new vehicles were sold as at April 2021, representing a contraction of 8.5% from the 9,398 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 358 new passenger vehicles were sold during April, decreasing by 2.2% from the 366 passenger vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,489, 55.8% higher than during the same period in 2020, mostly as a result of the low sales in April 2020. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,743, 5.0% lower than in April 2020.

A total of 397 new commercial vehicles were sold in April, representing a decrease of 28.2% m/m. 322 Light commercial vehicles, 20 medium commercial vehicles, and 55 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales fell 34.4% m/m, medium commercial vehicle sales dropped 16.7% m/m and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 44.7% m/m. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales have declined by 10.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 32.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles dropped 7.7% y/y.

Volkswagen continues its dominance in the new passenger vehicle sales segment with 34.7% of the segment sales year-to-date, followed by Toyota with 24.9% of the market share. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Suzuki following with 6.9% and 5.3% of the market, respectively, leaving the remaining 28.2% of the market to other brands.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota continued as the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 53.4% market share, Nissan maintained second place with a 13.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.0% and 6.7%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2021. Hino leads in the stagnant medium commercial vehicle segment with 26.1% of sales year-to-date, followed by Mercedes, with 23.9% market share. Scania remained number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 27.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Despite tallying the second lowest total vehicle sales thus far in 2021, the 755 total sales are still well above the monthly average of 634 sales in 2020. The cumulative 12-month total vehicle sales rose for the fourth consecutive month since December 2020. This seems to reflect a gradual recovery in the industry. Although vehicle sales have a minor impact on the overall Namibian economy through its relatively small GDP multiplier, it does reflect overall consumer and business confidence. New passenger vehicle sales have been rather steady, revolving around its mean of 372 passenger vehicle sales per month, slightly below 2019 levels of 380, but well above the 291-monthly average in 2020 (excluding April 2020.) Overall, this reflects a recovery in consumer confidence towards pre-Covid-19 levels. However, on the commercial side, uncertainty remains as commercial vehicle sales have been volatile, but remains above average levels in 2020, although still lagging pre-Covid-19 levels. This indicates a slower recovery rate in optimism in the commercial sector compared to consumers.

New Vehicle Sales – March 2021

908 New vehicles were sold in March, an increase of 1.68% m/m from the 893 vehicles sold in February, and a 20.3% y/y increase from the 755 sold in March 2020. For the first three months of 2021 2,494 new vehicles have been sold, of which 1,122 were passenger vehicles, 1,192 light commercial vehicles, and 180 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. By comparison, the first three months of 2020 saw 2,221 new vehicles sold. 2021 is thus off to a slightly better start compared to last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 7,885 new vehicles were sold as at March 2021, representing a contraction of 23.3% from the 10,277 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 357 new passenger vehicles were sold during March, decreasing by 13.1% from the 411 passenger vehicles sold in February. On a year-on-year basis, March new passenger vehicle sales were 13.7% higher than the 314 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,122, 18.4% higher than during the same period in 2020. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,384. This translates into four consecutive months of increases in this measure.

A total of 551 new commercial vehicles were sold in March, representing an increase of 14.3% m/m and 24.9% y/y. 489 Light commercial vehicles, 24 medium commercial vehicles, and 38 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales rose 25.7% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales climbed 4.3% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 31.0% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales have declined by 22.2% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 42.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles dropped 25.0% y/y.

Volkswagen continues its strong lead in the passenger vehicle sales segment with 34.9% of the segment sales year-to-date, followed by Toyota with 25.1% of the market share. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Mercedes following with 7.0% and 5.1% of the market, respectively, leaving the remaining 27.9% of the market to other brands.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 53.5% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 13.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.0% and 6.7%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2021. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 26.1% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 27.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

March wrapped up the first quarter of 2021 with 908 new vehicles sold, the highest monthly sales figure since October 2019, when 976 new vehicle sales were sold. Total sales for the quarter were 2,494, making it the strongest quarter since the fourth quarter of 2019, when 2,567 new vehicles were sold. This is a positive sign, as vehicle sales continue to recover to pre-Covid-19 levels, which could indicate somewhat increased levels of consumer confidence. The rolling 12-month number of new vehicle sales rose for a third consecutive month to 7,885. The growth is however from a very low base and overall, 12-month cumulative sales is still down 65.2% from its peak in April 2015.

New Vehicle Sales – February 2021

897 New vehicles were sold in February, an increase of 28.4% m/m from the 694 vehicles sold in January, and a 11.7% y/y increase from the 798 sold in February 2020. For the first two months of 2021 1,585 new vehicles have been sold, of which 764 were passenger vehicles, 703 light commercial vehicles, and 118 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. By comparison, the first two months of 2020 saw 1,470 new vehicles sold. 2021 is thus off to a slightly better start compared to last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 7,729 new vehicles were sold as at February 2021, representing a contraction of 26.0% from the 10,442 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 409 new passenger vehicles were sold during February, increasing by 15.2% from the 355 passenger vehicles sold in January. On a year-on-year basis, February new passenger vehicle sales 18.2% higher than the 346 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 764, 19.6% higher than during the same period in 2020. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,338, its highest level since April 2020. After three consecutive months of increases in this measure, early signs do seem to indicate as if the trough has been reached in the new passenger vehicle market.

A total of 482 new commercial vehicles were sold in February, representing an increase of 42.2% m/m and 6.6% y/y. 402 Light commercial vehicles, 13 medium commercial vehicles, and 67 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales rose 4.1% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales dropped 38.1% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 48.9% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales have declined by 25.5% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 41.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles dropped 24.9% y/y.

Volkswagen enjoys a strong lead in the passenger vehicle sales segment with 40.3% of the segment sales year-to-date, followed by Toyota with 21.6% of the market share. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Mercedes following with 6.0% and 5.5% of the market, respectively, leaving the remaining 26.6% of the market to other brands.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 51.5% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 14.9% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.7% and 6.5%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2021. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 27.3% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 33.3% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

February’s new vehicle sales figure of 891 was the highest number since October 2019, when 971 new vehicles were sold. The rolling 12-month number of new vehicle sales showed a small uptick for the second consecutive month to 7,729. The increase in new cumulative passenger vehicle sales is especially encouraging as it could indicate a slight increase in consumer confidence, although it is still early days. The growth in the last couple of months was likely driven by the extension of the payback period on vehicle financing from 54 months to 72 months in September 2020. . The growth is however from a very low base and overall 12-month cumulative sales is still down 66.4% from its peak in April 2015.