Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

Building Plans – September 2022

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A total of 237 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in September, representing a 2.2% m/m increase from the 232 building plans approved in August. In value terms, the approvals were valued at N$149.4 million, a 34.0% m/m decline from the N$226.3 million approved in August. Year-to-date, 1,904 building plans worth N$1.41 billion have been approved, 4.7% y/y higher in number terms and 0.4% higher in value terms than at the same time last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, the number of approvals climbed by 1.0% y/y to 2,536 but in value terms declined by 3.8% y/y to N$1.96 billion. 86 building plans worth N$107.5 million were completed in September.  

Additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals in both number and value terms. In September, 169 additions to properties were approved valued at N$57.7 million, the same number as last month, but 60.9% m/m lower in value terms. The month-on-month drop in the value of additions was somewhat expected given that last month’s data contained N$100 million worth of additions to the Lady Pohamba Hospital, which was an outlier. Year-to-date 1,262 additions to properties have been approved worth N$700.2 million, representing a 12.1% y/y jump in number terms and a 32.1% y/y increase in value terms. September saw 52 additions worth N$17.8 million completed, slightly down from the previous month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved. 62 new residential units were approved in September compared to the 55 recorded in August. In value terms N$48.6 million worth of residential units were approved during the month, representing a 19.0% m/m rise from the N$40.9 million approved in August but declining by 44.1% on a y/y basis. Year to date, 606 residential units valued at N$568.7 million were approved, representing an 8.7% y/y drop in number terms and a 27.3% y/y decline in value terms. The twelve-month cumulative number and value of residential units approved fell for a 6th consecutive month on a year-on-year basis in September. 782 residential units were approved in the last twelve months to September, a 14.3% y/y decline from the 913 units approved in September last year. In value terms, N$824.7 million worth of residential units were approved over the past 12 months, representing a 30.2% y/y drop. 29 New residential units worth N$33.99 million were completed during September, up 78.9% m/m from the N$19.0 million completed in August.

Approvals of commercial and industrial units remained in the single-digit territory as has been the case since February 2020. 6 new commercial and industrial units valued at N$43.1 million were approved in September, the highest value recorded since October last year. Year-to-date, 36 commercial and industrial buildings valued at N$144.2 million were approved up until the end of Q3, compared to the 29 commercial buildings worth N$94.8 million at the end of Q3 2021. This represents a 24.1% y/y jump in number terms and a 52.0% y/y rise in value terms. On a rolling 12-month perspective, 44 commercial and industrial buildings valued at N$220.7 million were approved in September, compared to the 37 approved buildings worth N$149.0 million over the corresponding period a year ago. 5 commercial and industrial units worth N$55.7 million were completed in September, the highest value recorded this year.

The twelve-month cumulative value of both building plans approved and completed fell in nominal, as well as inflation-adjusted, terms in September as reflected in the graphs above and below.

On a 12-month cumulative basis, 2,536 building plans worth N$1.97 billion were approved, representing a 1.0% y/y increase in number terms but a 3.8% y/y drop in value terms. Additions to properties which made up over two-thirds of this number of approvals rose by 9.9% y/y to 1,710, and is trending at levels last seen in late 2018. Encouragingly, the 12-month cumulative number of commercial and industrial building plan approvals have steadily been ticking up over the last couple of months, and has reached the levels last seen in October 2020. The cumulative number of residential unit approvals fell by 14.3% y/y but at 782 remains well above historical levels. The 20-year average 12-month number of plan approvals remained steady at 2,451 in September.

Completed building plans once again saw strong growth in 12-month cumulative value growing by 26.9% y/y to N$971.2 million in September but falling by 23.4% y/y in number terms to 1,057, the lowest 12-month cumulative figure recorded since March 2018.

New Vehicle Sales – September 2022

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A total of 1,018 new vehicles were sold in September, which is 34 fewer than were sold in August, but represents a 32.7% y/y increase from the 767 new vehicles sold in September 2021. Year-to-date, a total of 7,932 new vehicles have been sold during the first three quarters of the year, of which 4,075 (or 51.4%) were passenger vehicles, 3,358 light commercial vehicles, and 499 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 10,139 new vehicles were sold up to the end of September 2022, representing an increase of 10.4% from the 9,186 new vehicles sold over the same period a year ago.

A total of 505 new passenger vehicles were sold in September, a 2.3% decrease from the 517 sold in August but a 32.9% increase compared to the same month last year. Toyota and Volkswagen’s sales accounted for 63.8% of the new passenger vehicles during the month. Year-to-date, new passenger vehicle sales are up 20.5% y/y. On a 12-month cumulative basis, sales have increased by 18.8% y/y to 5,176, the highest it has been since August 2018.

A total of 513 new commercial vehicles were sold in September, down 4.1% m/m from the 535 commercial vehicles sold in August but up 32.6% y/y when compared to the 387 commercial vehicles sold in September 2021. Light commercial vehicle sales continue to make up the bulk of the new commercial vehicle sales with 448 sold in September, followed by 44 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles and 21 medium commercial vehicles. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales rose 47.4% y/y, medium commercial vehicles rose 31.3% y/y, while heavy and extra heavy vehicle sales contracted by 34.3% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales rose by 4.4% y/y, while medium- and heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle sales are down by 0.5% y/y and 8.3% y/y, respectively.

Toyota had a strong month and continues to retain its lead in the new passenger vehicle sales segment, accounting for 31.3% of the sales year-to-date, followed by Volkswagen with 23.0% market share. The two top brands have been maintaining their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Suzuki following with 9.0% and 7.9% of the market, respectively, leaving the remaining 28.7% of the market to other brands.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota also maintained its dominance in the light commercial vehicle market with a 46.9% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 12.7% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 11.6% and 5.6% of the light commercial vehicle sales, respectively. Hino continues to lead the medium commercial vehicle segment with 27.0% of sales year-to-date. Scania retained its position as the leader in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 27.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

In context, September’s new vehicle sales figure were in line with August sales, again breaching the 1,000 mark. On a 12-month cumulative basis, total new vehicle sales breached the 10,000 level for the first time since March 2020. New vehicle sales this year are trending around the levels seen in 2019. New passenger vehicle sales continue to tick up on a 12-month cumulative basis, while new commercial vehicle sales continue to hover around the 4,800 level, where it has been trending since April 2021.