Bank of Namibia cuts Repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% – 16 August 2017

Bank of Namibia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to cut the Repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% today (16 August 2017). This is the first meeting of the MPC since the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) effected its first rate cut in five years by 25 basis points in July 2017 with the two MPC rates once again on par.

New Vehicle Sales – July 2017

Vehicle sales of 1,346 units was recorded in July, with overall sales falling by 12.8% from the 1,544 new vehicles sold in July 2016, and a 10.3% m/m increase on the 1,220 vehicles sold in June. Year to date, 8,178 vehicles have been sold, 22% less than the corresponding period in 2016. Of the 8,178 vehicles sold this year, 3,578 were passenger vehicles, 4,198 were light commercial vehicles, and 402 were medium or heavy commercial vehicles.

Passenger car sales have decreased by 15.7% y/y, to 533 cars, while commercial vehicle sales have declined by 10.9% y/y. Of the 813 commercial vehicles sold in July: 771 were classified as light, 12 as medium and 30 as heavy. Heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 50.8% y/y after showing an uptick y/y of 66.0% in June, which did provide some optimism as increased capital spending pointed toward improving business confidence. Light commercial vehicles was the standout performer this month, exhibiting a positive monthly increase in sales of 29.6%, although still down 8.1% y/y.

 

On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales continue to wane, contracting by 23.8% y/y. Installment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, has slowed considerably. Instalment credit advances contracted by 0.7% y/y in June, entering negative territory for the first time in our database.

Year to date Toyota and Volkswagen continue to hold a strong market share in the passenger vehicle market based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 36% and 26% of the market respectively. They were followed by Ford and Mercedes at 6% and 4% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market continues to be shared by several competitors. Toyota also remains the leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 47% of the market, followed by Nissan at 17%. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12% and 9% of the number of light commercial vehicles sold in 2017.

 

Hino leads in medium commercial vehicles with 31% of the market, with Iveco marginally less with 30%. In the heavy and extra heavy category, Scania and Mercedes have sold the most vehicles, claiming 29% and 18% of the market respectively. UD Trucks came in at third, with 15% of the number of vehicles sold in this category in 2017.

The Bottom Line

Overall vehicle sales remained sluggish in July, continuing on almost the same trend as in 2016, showing some positive signs before trending downwards midway through the year. Continued fiscal tightening, evident through lower government spending on capital assets, slower economic growth, waning consumer discretionary income as well as the credit agreement act have been the main impediments on new vehicles sold. Positive heavy vehicle sales figures in June have this month been supported by encouraging sales data for light commercial vehicles, though overall vehicle sales for 2017 remain under pressure. While there has been a sizable increase in total vehicle sales since April this year, year-to-date and year-on-year data is still depressed compared to previous years.

NCPI – July 2017

Annual inflation continues to descend further since the start of the year, falling to 5.4 % y/y in July, 0.7% lower than in June. On a month-on-month basis prices remained flat. The slowdown in annual inflation was largely due to a decline in transport prices. Overall, prices in two basket categories rose at a faster annual rate than during the preceding month, eight at a slower rate and two grew at a steady pace. Prices for goods rose by 3.5% y/y while prices for services rose by 8.1% y/y.

The largest contributor to annual inflation remains Housing and utilities due to its large weighting in the basket. This category rose by 0.3% m/m and 9.1% y/y. January 2017 saw an irregular high rental increase of 9.7%. Annual inflation for rental payments for dwellings remained unchanged at 9.6% in July and will likely remain this high for the rest of the year. The effect of the tariff increases passed on by the City of Windhoek have seen prices of water supply rise by 6.6%. Furthermore, the City of Windhoek has requested for a 10% electricity tariff increase submitted to the Electricity Control Board (ECB) pending approval. Should approval be granted, this should see price levels ticking up. We continue to expect the housing and utilities basket category to underpin overall inflation.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages was the second largest contributor to annual inflation and serves as the second largest basket item in weighting, accounting for 0.8% of the total inflation figure. Prices in this category rose by 4.3% y/y while three subcategories became cheaper, such as bread and cereal prices which declined by 0.6% y/y.

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices rose by 3.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m in July compared to 3.0% y/y in June. Alcohol prices have been the predominant driver within this category. However, that role reversed in July with tobacco prices rising by 6.2% y/y while alcohol prices rose 3.0% y/y. Transport, miscellaneous and education individually accounted for 0.3% of the total 5.4% inflation recorded in July. Transport prices increased by 2.4% y/y and fell 1.0% m/m as the cost of vehicles subcategory rose by 0.5% m/m but the cost of operating personal transportation equipment decreased by 1.8% during the month, muting overall inflation for the transport basket category.

Slower increases in food prices since the start of the year have been a large contributor towards the slowdown in annual inflation. Transport prices being the third largest basket category had a significant impact on the downtrend in annual inflation. The Rand took a knock following the failed motion of no confidence against president Jacob Zuma, but fears of further immediate downgrades were squashed when S&P stated that the failed motion did not have ruling on any downgrade scenario. With the SARB having cut monetary policy rates in a bid to support growth and SA inflation returning to within the target band, inflation seems set to remain within these levels. However, it remains to be seen whether the currency will deteriorate further.