Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

NCPI – November 2017

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The Namibian annual inflation rate remained at 5.2% y/y in November, unchanged from October. Prices increased by 0.3% m/m. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which has largely been the reason for the slowdown in annual inflation, continue to increase at slower pace. On a year on year basis, overall prices in three of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in November than in October, with five categories recording slower rates of inflation and four categories remained unchanged. Prices for goods increased by 3.1% y/y while prices for services increased by 8.0% y/y. This was also unchanged from the increases recorded in October.

Housing and utilities was the largest contributor to annual inflation by weighting, this is also the largest weighted basket item. This category remained flat m/m and increased 8.6% y/y, contributing 2.4% towards the annual inflation figure. Year-on-year price increases within the subcategories showed little change from those recorded in October, with one of the exceptions being price increases for electricity and other fuels of 4.6% y/y in November, up from 4.1% y/y in October. This follows fuel pump price increases in November of 40 cents per litre of petrol and 60c per litre of diesel. Prices for regular maintenance and repair of dwellings contracted by 0.1% m/m.

Transport contributes about 14% towards annual inflation, and as serves as the third largest basket item by weighting. Transport accounted for 0.8% of annual inflation in November, making it the second largest contributor this month. Prices for transport rose by 6.1% y/y, a faster increase in prices than the 4.1% y/y rise recorded in October. Prices related to the purchases of vehicles rose by 7.5% y/y in November compared to a 6.5% y/y increase in October.

The alcoholic beverages and tobacco category showed increases of 5.4% y/y and 0.3% m/m, compared to increases of 5.7% y/y and 1% m/m in October. Tobacco prices increased by 6.0% y/y, while alcohol increased at 5.3% y/y.

Namibian annual inflation, although higher than that of South Africa, has been slowing since the start of this year. South African inflation has, since April this year, remained within the SARB’s target band at 4.6% y/y in November following 4.8% y/y in October. The SARB, being an inflation targeting central bank, kept rates unchanged at its November MPC meeting whilst pointing out that there are upside risks to their inflation forecast. The SARB cited higher international oil prices and a weaker rand exchange rate as reasons not to cut rates, while expecting inflation to remain within the target range in the near term. The outcomes of the ANC electoral conference and Moody’s review decision later in 2018 could have a significant impact on the rand. Adverse outcomes from these two events will most likely trigger capital outflows. Weak economic growth locally as well as regionally, and a slowdown in inflation, provided plenty of cause to expect rate cuts in 2017. This was not to be and the year will end with only one rate cut of 25 basis points exercised in July and August by the SARB and BoN respectively. At present South Africa looks set to enter 2018 with expectations of interest rate hikes which will be emulated by BoN should they transpire.

Building Plans – November 2017

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A total of 235 building plans were approved in November and represents a 46.9% m/m increase from the 160 building plans approved in October. In value terms approvals increased by more than N$80 million to N$172 million in October from N$88.46 million approved in September. Total completions fell from the 88 recorded in October to 67 for November. In value terms however, completions increased by 67.1% m/m with N$86.85 million worth of completions registered in November. Year to date, N$2.09 billion worth of building plans have been approved, an increase of 12.2% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,932 building plans have been approved worth approximately N$2.19 billion, 13.6% higher in value terms than the cumulative approvals registered in November 2016.

 

Additions to properties made up 197 approvals out of the total 235 approved plans recorded in November. Year-to-date, 1,484 additions to properties have been approved, increasing by 12.5% y/y and rising 14.7% y/y in value terms. With 2017 drawing to a close, year-to-date total approvals, in value terms, have surpassed the N$1.97 billion approvals registered in 2016 with N$119 million. By that account 2017 has, albeit marginally, been a better year than 2016 for commercial and residential real estate.

33 new residential units were approved in November, 12 more than the 21 approved in October. Year-to-date residential approvals showed further improvement with 277 new approvals, 36 units more than in the corresponding period in 2016. In value terms, N$407.9 million worth of new residential units have been approved year-to-date, a 22% contraction compared to November 2016.

Commercial and industrial building plans approved amount to 5 units, worth N$16 million for November. This is a month-on-month decline of 44.4% in the number of plans approved and a 31% decline in value terms as well.  Year-to-date 46 plans for commercial and industrial purposes have been approved, a far cry from the 76 building plans approved in the corresponding period in 2016. However, in value terms, 2017 is on course to exceed the N$482.3 million registered in 2016, with year-to-date value of commercial and industrial plans approved already at N$691.3 million. Reason for this being one large commercial plan approved in May this year that has buoyed the value of approvals considerably for 2017. This approval alone accounts for 72% of commercial and industrial building plans approved this year. Stripping out this single commercial property development would result in a contraction compared to 2016.

From a 12-month cumulative perspective, 1,932 building plans have been approved in November, increasing by 13% compared to corresponding period in 2016. Additions to properties exceeded new developments by more than four times. While private sector credit continuously slowed since the start of 2017, currently at 5.2% in October. Total mortgage loans extended to the private sector grew at an average of 8.2% during 2017. This is slower than the growth in mortgage loans of 11.7% recorded in 2016. Consumers and businesses will now look to 2018 in hopes of some relief, however recent downgrades and the potential of further downgrades in South Africa point to greater possibilities of a rate hiking cycle, which would put further pressure on consumers and will further delay a much needed economic recovery.

PSCE – October 2017

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Overall

Private sector credit extension (PSCE) increased by N$180.2 million or 0.20% m/m in October, bringing the cumulative credit outstanding to N$89.0 billion. On a y/y basis, credit extended to the private sector rose by 5.2% in October, marginally slower than the growth of 5.24% recorded in September. Growth in total credit extended to the private sector continued to fall on a rolling 12-month basis as N$4.39 billion worth of credit has been extended over the last 12 months. This is down 44% from the N$7.84 billion issuance in the prior 12-month period that ended October 2016. Of this cumulative issuance, individuals took up N$3.6 billion while N$850 million was issued to corporates. Claims on non-resident private sector credit decreased by N$55.22 million y/y.

Credit extension to households

Credit extended to individuals increased by 7.37% y/y in October, compared to the growth of 7.53% y/y in September. On a m/m basis household credit extension rose by 0.63%, a slower increase in growth than the increase of 1.63% m/m recorded in September. Household credit extension has been very much subdued during 2017, having last recorded double-digit growth in August 2016. Installment credit increased by 0.48% m/m and contracted by 2.0% y/y. This is aptly reflected in the dwindling sales of new vehicles as reported for the month of October. New vehicle sales decreased by 20.6% on a rolling 12-month basis and should serve as no surprise that installment credit used to finance new vehicle purchases is declining in tandem. The value of mortgage loans extended to individuals increased by 0.5% m/m and 8.1% y/y. Overdraft facilities extended to individuals grew by 0.6% m/m and 10.9% y/y. Other loans and advances recorded growth of 3.2% m/m and 5.0% y/y.

Credit extension to corporates

Credit extension to corporates contracted on a m/m basis, recording a decline in 0.5% in October albeit slower contraction than the 1.4% m/m contraction in September. Y/y credit extended to corporates rose 2.4% in October, unchanged from the rate registered in September. Instalment credit extended to corporates contracted by 0.6% m/m in September. Installment credit extended to corporates has been contracting since February 2017 and continued to do so in October, declining 6.8% y/y. Mortgage loans extended to corporates increased by 5.8% y/y and 2.4% m/m. Overdraft facilities extended to corporates decreased 6.4% m/m while rising 5.0% y/y.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The average monthly liquidity position of commercial banks decreased from N$3.55 billion in September to N$2.85 billion in October. The decrease is attributed to cross border payments made during the month of October.

Reserves and money supply

Foreign reserves rose by N$138.2 million to N$31.6 billion at the end of October from N$31.4 billion in September. According to the Bank of Namibia the increase in the level of reserves stemmed from the inflows of Southern African Customs Union (SACU) receipts. Reserve balances going forward should further improve following the recent approval of a N$2 billion loan facility from the African Development Bank (AfDB) that has been earmarked for the agriculture and education sectors.

Outlook

With 2017 drawing to a close private sector credit extension has since the start of the year been on a downward trajectory. The slower rates of growth as recorded in the October figures points towards subdued demand for credit, especially from households. This speaks of an over-committed consumer that was further impacted by legislature changes earlier this year that tightened the affordability and qualifying criteria. Relief for consumers was expected through the possibility of easing monetary policy. This was backed by the first rate cut in five years of 25 basis points in July by the SARB and in August by BoN. At the time moderating inflation and the need to aid both struggling economies set the stage for what many expected would be the start of a rate cutting cycle.

Since then, South Africa has been downgraded by both Fitch and S&P while Namibia was not spared in its own respect by Moody’s and Fitch Ratings. Four MPC meetings later, hopes of further rate cuts were dispelled when both committees elected to keep rates unchanged. Credit ratings agency have longed warned of the implications of fiscal indiscipline and it has been clear of late that those weren’t mere warnings. Moody’s has placed South Africa on review and will make a decision in the three months. The risk in Moody’s downgrading South Africa’s local currency in February has the biggest implication in that it will result in South Africa losing its place in global bond indexes. Exclusion from these indices will result into large capital outflows that in turn will result in upside risks for inflation as well as a blow out of the rand. The SARB will most likely in that event rate hikes in an effort to stabilize the currency with Namibia having little room to do anything but adopt the same measures, thus putting further pressure on private sector credit extension.