Building Plans – August 2022

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 232 building plans in August, representing a 21.6% m/m decrease from the 296 building plans approved in July. In value terms, the approvals were valued at N$226.3 million, a 19.8% decline from the N$282.0 million approved in July. So far in 2022 there have been 1,667 approvals, worth N$1.26 billion. This year-to-date figure is 4.8% higher in number terms and 1.2% higher in value terms than at the same time last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, the number of approvals has risen by 0.4% y/y to 2,527 but the value of these approvals has declined by 2.3% y/y to N$1.98 billion. The number of completions for August came in at 79, valued at N$79.0 million.

Additions to properties made up the largest portion of approvals in both number and value terms. 169 additions to properties were approved valued at N$147.8 million, decreasing by 5.6% m/m in number terms but increasing 37.9% m/m in value terms, the highest value of approvals in a single month since January 2018. It should however be noted that N$100 million worth of additions to the Lady Pohamba Hospital in Kleine Kuppe alone made up 67.7% of this total. Year-to-date 1,093 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$642.5 million, an 11.2% y/y increase in number terms and a 37.9% y/y increase in value terms. 37 Additions worth N$19.6 million were completed in August.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 55 approvals registered in August compared to 112 in July. In value terms N$40.9 million worth of residential units were approved in August, an 75.8% m/m decrease from the high base in July, and a 51.4% y/y decline. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved fell by 12.6% y/y to 801. 25 New residential units worth N$19.0 million were completed during August, a 26.7% m/m decrease in value terms.

8 New commercial and industrial units valued at N$37.7 million were approved in August. This compares to 5 units valued at N$20.4 million in August 2021 and is the highest number of approvals since February 2020. Year-to-date there have been 30 commercial and industrial building approvals valued at N$101.1 million, translating to a 20.0% y/y increase in number, and a 15.1% y/y increase in value terms compared to the same period last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 42 units worth N$184.6 million, compared to the 34 approved units worth N$143.0 million over the corresponding period a year ago. One commercial and industrial unit worth N$2.2 million was completed in August.

As shown in the figure above, the cumulative value of building plans approved has been ticking up slightly in nominal terms in recent months but continues to trend down in inflation-adjusted terms The 12-month cumulative value of plans completed however continues trend down in both nominal and real terms, as shown in the graph below.

On a 12-month cumulative basis, 2,527 building plans to the value of N$1.98 billion were approved which represents a 0.4% y/y increase in number terms but a 2.3 y/y decrease in value terms. Additions to properties continue to make up most of the cumulative approvals at 66.6% in number terms. The number of commercial and industrial approvals have increased by 23.5% y/y on a 12-month cumulative basis, despite remaining in a single-digit territory since March 2020, indicating that it is from a very low base. As mentioned earlier, the 8 commercial building plan approvals in August was the highest since February 2020. While the number of approvals of a single month cannot be used to infer a change in trend, the relatively high number of commercial approvals in August is still encouraging as it indicates that some corporates are expanding their operations. Completed building plans increased by 29.4% y/y in value terms to N$984.0 million on a 12-month cumulative basis, the first increase since June 2021.

Building Plans – July 2022

A total of 296 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek during July, representing a 30.4% m/m increase from the 227 building plans approved in June. In value terms, the approvals were valued at N$282.0 million, an increase of 138.5% m/m from a downward revised N$118.2 million in June. Year-to-date 1,435 building plans were approved worth N$1.04 billion, increasing by 7.2% y/y in number terms but declining 4.6% y/y in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,548 buildings with a combined value of N$1.91 billion were approved, rising by 2.0% y/y in terms of the number of plans approved but declining 3.1% y/y in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 79 building plans worth N$51.2 million were completed during July.

Additions to properties continue to make up the lion’s share of building plans approvals in both number and value terms, as has been the case since the beginning of the year. 179 additions to properties worth N$107.1 million were approved in July, increasing by 17.0% m/m in number terms and 121.2% m/m in value terms from a downward revised N$48.4 million in June. 46 Additions worth N$6.83 million were completed during July.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 112 approvals recorded in July, compared to 69 in June. In value terms, N$168.8 million worth of residential units were approved during the month, a 206.9% m/m increase from June and the highest value since October 2020. On a year-on-year basis, the value of residential unit approvals increased by 110.0%, ending six consecutive months of declines. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential unit approvals continued to fall, declining by 8.9% y/y in number terms and 19.0% y/y in value terms. 32 New residential units worth N$41.39 million were completed during July, a 30.2% m/m increase in terms of the value, despite declining by 31.9% m/m in terms of the number of units completed.

The number of new commercial and industrial unit approvals remained steady from last month. 5 New commercial units worth N$6.1 million were approved in July, declining 58.9% m/m from the N$14.8 million recorded last month. Year-to-date there have been 22 commercial building approvals worth N$63.4 million, which translates to a 5.9% y/y decline in the value of approvals, despite the number of commercial plan approvals being 10.0% higher y/y. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 39 units worth N$167.4 million, compared to the 30 units approved worth N$137.6 million over the same period a year ago. Only 1 commercial and industrial unit worth N$3.0 million was completed in July.

The twelve-month cumulative value of both building plans approved and completed ended a 5-months long downward trend both in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms as illustrated in the figures above and below. Despite this uptick, the twelve-month cumulative value of plans approved and completed contracted when compared to the corresponding period a year ago. The twelve-month cumulative value of plans approved declined by 3.1% y/y to N$1.91 billion as noted above, while the cumulative value of plans completed dropped by 6.9% y/y to N$1.01 billion. The twelve-month cumulative number of plans approved at 2,548 is above the twenty-year historical average of 2,447.

Building Plans – June 2022

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 227 building plans in June, representing a 55.5% m/m increase from the 146 building plans approved in May. In value terms, the approvals were valued at N$398.2 million, a 237.2% m/m increase from the N$118.1 million approved in May. Year-to-date 1,139 building plans were approved worth N$1.03 billion, a 1.1% y/y increase in the number of plans approved, and a 10% y/y increase in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,463 buildings with a value of N$2.05 billion were approved, a 2.8% decrease in the number of plans approved but a 4.4% increase in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 73 building plans worth N$43.8 million were completed during the month.

Additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of the building plans approved both in terms of the number and the value of plans approved. For the month of June, 153 additions to properties were approved valued at N$328.4 million, the largest single month approval in value terms ever recorded. The value of the additions approved is 384.5% higher than last month and 835.1% higher than during the same month last year. It is however worth pointing out that the high value in additions recorded in June stems from a single property. If excluded, the value of additions in June amounts to N$48.2 million, representing a 29% m/m decline from the N$67.8 million worth of additions approved in May and a 37% increase compared to June last year. 24 Additions worth N$7.07 million were completed during June, a 19.6% m/m increase in terms of the value of additions completed.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 69 approvals registered in June compared to 30 in May. In value terms N$55.0 million worth of residential units were approved in June, a 17.1% m/m increase. On a year-on-year basis, the value of approvals is however 28.8% lower than registered in June last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved decreased by 13% y/y to 790. Further declines in these numbers are expected given the current inflationary environment and the resultant rise in building costs which makes building new residential properties less affordable when compared to existing properties in the market. 47 New residential units worth N$31.8 million were completed during June, a 28.4% m/m increase in terms of the value of the residential units completed.

5 New commercial units valued at N$14.8 million were approved in June, compared to 2 units worth N$3.35 million approved in May and 3 units worth N$16.0 million approved in June 2021. Year-to-date there have been 17 commercial building approvals valued at N$57.3 million, which translates to a 10.5% y/y decrease in the number of plans approved and a 14.6% y/y decrease in value terms. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals remained steady at 33 units worth N$161.6 million, compared to the 32 units approved worth N$146.1 million over the corresponding period a year ago. 2 Commercial and industrial units worth N$4.9 million were completed in June.

Approved building plans increased by 4.4% y/y in value terms to N$2.05 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis. The improvement in the cumulative value of building plans observed in June is however mainly due to a single addition worth over N$280 million as mentioned earlier – it is unlikely that the value of approvals seen in June will be sustained in the foreseeable months. Therefore, tapering in the 12-month cumulative value of building plan approvals is expected over the ensuing months. Building plans completed continue to trend downward in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms as illustrated below. Completed building plans decreased by 29.2% y/y in value terms to N$984.9 million on a 12-month cumulative basis. Given that building plan approvals is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country, the data above, bar the single significant addition mentioned, implies that Namibian’s economy is still enduring tough times.