Building Plans – January 2021

A total of 122 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in January, representing a 6.1% m/m increase from the 115 building plans approved in December. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$84.0 million, an 11.5% m/m increase,  while buildings with a value of N$57.6 million were completed during January, a 79.9% m/m increase. 2021 is off to a slower start in terms of value of approvals, compared to January 2020 when 121 building plans worth N$189.4 million got the nod. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,283 building plans worth approximately N$1.75 billion were approved, an increase in number of 14.7% y/y, but a decline of 8.5% y/y in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of January, 71 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$25.7 million, 7 more than the number of additions approved in January 2020. The value of the additions approved in January is however 55.6% lower than those observed in the first month of 2020. 4 additions worth N$890,000 were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in January. 50 new units worth N$51.3 million were approved in January, representing a 102.9% increase from the N$51.3 million worth of approvals in the first month of 2020. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 74.6% y/y increase in value. 30 new residential units worth N$57.6 million were completed during the month.

Only 1 new commercial unit, valued at N$7.0 million, was approved in January. This compares to 6 units valued at N$136.0 million approved in January 2020. On average over the last 20 years, 4 commercial units valued at N$26.5 million were approved in the first month of the year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 36 units worth N$202.2 million as at January, compared to the 51 approved units worth N$641.6 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in January.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 14.7% y/y in January. A total of 2,283 building plans to the value of N$1.75 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decline in value terms of 8.5% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 68.9% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 39.4% of the total value of approvals, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The low single digit number of commercial approvals witnessed over the last 11 months indicates that most businesses are not planning on expanding their existing operations. It is evident that the Namibian construction industry continues to tread water as the value of approvals continues to decline in real terms.

Building Plans – December 2020

A total of 115 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in December, which is a 57.6% m/m decline from the 271 building plans approved in November. In value terms, approvals fell by 68.2% m/m to register N$75.4 million worth of approvals in December, compared to N$237.2 million in November. A total of 51 building plans worth N$32.0 million were completed during the month, representing an increase of 13.3% y/y in number, but a decline of 12.0% in value of completions. A total of 2,282 building plans were approved in 2020, 250 more than in 2019. However, in value terms approvals fell by 7.0% in 2020, declining from N$1.99 billion in 2019 to N$1.85 billion in 2020.

Additions to properties once again made up the majority of building plans approved in 2020. Of the 2,282 building plans approved in 2020, additions accounted for 1,601 of these approvals, 29 fewer than in 2019. In value terms, approvals of additions for the year declined by N$78.3 million or 10.1% y/y. The value of additions approved has been contracting for the past five years, with a decline of 10.1% recorded in 2020 following the 16.3% contraction in 2019. 84 additions were approved in December, 81 fewer than in November and 74.9% lower in value terms at N$23.9 million. During the year, 886 additions have been completed to a value of N$454.1 million, a drop of 30.5% y/y in number and 34.1% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 640 approvals registered in 2020, 285 more than in 2019. In value terms, new residential units approved increased from N$640.8 million in 2019 to N$823.5 million in 2020. On a month-on-month basis, the number of new residential approvals decreased by 71.2% to 30 in December, while the value of approvals declined by 80.9% to N$25.3 million. 30 Residential units valued at N$16.8 million were completed in December, bringing 2020’s total number to 720, up 133.8% y/y, and value to N$1.04 billion, up 155.0% y/y.

A total of 41 commercial and industrial units were approved in 2020 compared to the 47 approved in 2019. In value terms, commercial and industrial approvals fell by N$244.5 million or 42.5% for the year in 2020 from the N$575.6 million reported in 2019. In December, only 1 new commercial unit valued at N$26.2 million was approved, 1 fewer than in November, but a 162.2% m/m increase in terms of value. 1 Commercial and industrial building was completed in December, bringing the year’s total to 12, a 58.6% decline from 2019. In value terms, N$39.7 million worth of commercial and industrial units were completed in 2020, representing a contraction of 78.6% y/y.

The number of building plans approved in 2020 rose by 12.3% compared to 2019, but the cumulative number of plans remains down 32.9% from its peak in 2013. The cumulative value of approvals fell 7.0% y/y to N$1.85 billion in 2020 and is down 29.0% from the peak in 2013 in nominal terms. Building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and the above data implies that the Namibian economy is still showing signs of hardship. The significantly lower commercial building plan approvals in 2020 is another sign of this and indicate that most businesses are not planning on expanding their existing operations.

Building Plans – November 2020

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 271 building plans worth N$237.2 million in November, 35 fewer than in October. In value terms, approvals fell by N$90.5 million to N$237.2 million in November from N$327.7 million worth of approvals in October. A total of 61 building plans worth N$40.4 million were completed during the month, a decline of 76.3% y/y in number and 82.8% y/y in value of completions. Year-to-date, N$1.78 billion worth of building plans have been approved, 2.7% lower than the corresponding period in 2019. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,258 building plans have been approved worth approximately N$1.94 billion, 2.8% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of November 2019.

The largest portion of building plan approvals in November was made up of additions to properties. 165 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$95.1 million, 11.3% lower in number, but 42.4% more in value terms than in October. Year-to-date 1,517 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$673.5 million, a 3.1% y/y decline in number and 9.3% y/y decrease in value. 10 additions worth N$5.5 million were completed during the month. Year-to-date 866 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$444.8 million, down 31.2% y/y in number and 34.8% y/y in value terms.

New residential units accounted for 104 of the total 271 approvals registered in November, an 9.6% m/m decrease compared to the 115 residential units approved in October. In value terms, N$132.0 million worth of residential units were approved during the month, 45.6% less than the N$242.9 million worth of residential approvals in October. Year-to-date 610 residential units have been approved worth N$798.2 million, 278 units more than in the corresponding period in 2019 and up N$280.4 million in value terms. 51 Residential units valued at N$34.9 million were completed in November, bringing the year-to-date number to 690, up 147.3% y/y. In monetary terms, this is an increase of 170.4% y/y.

Only 2 new commercial units, valued at N$10.0 million, were approved in November, bringing the year-to-date number of approvals to 40, worth a total of N$305.0 million. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 43 units worth N$315.6 million as at November, compared to the 47 approved units worth N$566.1 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in November.

On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of building plan approvals have been ticking up steadily since June, although the growth has been from a relatively low base. In monetary terms, these approvals are up only 2.8% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 70.0% of the year-to-date total number of approvals, but only 37.9% of the total value of approvals, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The cumulative value of plans approved is still trending downward from a longer-term perspective, as the graph above indicates.