Category Archives: Building Plans

The City of Windhoek approved 228 building plans in September, a 9.9% m/m decrease from the 253 approved in August. The total value of approvals decreased by 2.2% m/m to N$158.1 million. So far in 2021 there have been 1,819 approvals, valued at N$1.41 billion. This year-to-date figure is 14.4% higher in number terms and 16.1% higher in value terms than at the same time last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of building plans approved rose by 20.7% y/y to 2,511, while the value of these approvals rose by 25.1% y/y to N$2.05 billion. 234 construction projects were completed in September at a value of N$120.3 million, a high in both number and value terms for the year. Year-to-date, 1,203 plans, valued at N$638.2 million have been completed, a 54.8% contraction in value terms compared to the same period a year ago. On a 12-month cumulative basis the value of completed projects is down 57.3% y/y.

Over the past decade additions to properties have averaged roughly 44% of the total value of approved construction projects. On trend, additions to properties made up 41% of the total value of approvals in September. 143 additions were approved at a value of N$64.2 million, a 13.3% m/m decrease in number, but a 12.5% m/m increase in value from the N$57.1 million approved in August. Year-to-date, 1,126 additions have been approved at a value of N$530.2 million, a 3.4% decrease in number, but a 3.6% increase in value from September 2020. Compared to the preceding three months September saw a large spike in the number and value of additions completed, with 162 additions completed in the month at a value of N$44.7 million. In fact, September saw a greater number, and value, of additions completed than in the previous three months (June, July and August) combined.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 81 approvals. Residential units did however contribute the most value, with total residential approvals valued at N$86.9 million. In terms of value, that N$86.9 million represents a 3.3% m/m increase from August’s figure of N$84.1 million. Year-to-date, 664 units worth N$781.8 million have been approved. This represents a year-to-date increase in value of residential units of 84.7% y/y. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved increased by 98.0% y/y and by 90.0% y/y in value.

72 new residential units were completed in September at a value of N$75.6 million. In terms of value, September was the best month for residential construction in Windhoek in 2021. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units completed comes to 563 at a value of N$511.4 million and while this translates to a year-on year decrease of the 12-month cumulative figure, the number and value of completed residential construction projects from July through to September 2020 was unnaturally high. So, with those values now omitted from the 12-month cumulative calculations it is unsurprising to see that the 12-month cumulative value of residential units completed has decreased by 50.8% y/y in value. This has everything to do with those three months in 2020 seeing abnormally high figures for the value of completed projects (see last month’s report for a more detailed explanation of why that is) and nothing do with 2021 being an unusually slow year for residential construction.

In September four commercial units, valued at N$7.0 million, were approved. Year-to-date, 29 commercial buildings have been approved at a combined value of N$94.8 million. September also marks the sixth consecutive month with zero commercial building project completions. Over this time, 25 projects have been approved. So, while projects are not being completed the fact that commercial projects continue to be approved is encouraging, although the value of these projects are significantly smaller than they were pre-pandemic.

On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of buildings completed fell by 30.5% y/y and 57.3% y/y in terms of value. As alluded to in the previous paragraph, and as explained in the conclusion of the previous report, there is a simple mechanical explanation for this and now the 12-month cumulative value of plans completed simply gives a more accurate picture of short-term construction trends than it did two months ago. Additionally, the year-on-year change of the 12-month cumulative value of plans completed will remain negative for several more months while the overall health of the construction industry is likely to hover around its early 2019 level.

12-month cumulative approvals do paint a better picture, with a 20.7% y/y increase in number terms and 25.1% y/y in value, however these increases are from a low base and the majority of approvals continue to be made up of additions to properties which are of lower relative value.

The City of Windhoek approved 253 building plans in August, a 19.9% m/m increase from the 211 approved in July. The value of approvals increased by 11.1% m/m to N$161.7 million. Year-to-date there have been 1,591 approvals, valued at N$1.25 billion, 15.8% higher in value terms and 17.3% higher in number terms than at the same time last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of building plan approvals rose by 22.8% y/y to 2,517 as the value of approvals rose by 4.5% y/y to N$2.02 billion. In August, 131 construction projects were completed at a value of N$68.4 billion. This is a marked increase from the number of completions in July when only 36 projects were completed, the second-lowest figure for the year.  Year-to-date, 969 plans, valued at N$517.9 million have been completed, a 60.0% contraction in value terms compared to the same period a year ago.

Additions to properties made up 65% of total approvals in August. 165 additions were approved at a value of N$57.1 million, a 20.4% m/m increase in number, but a 12.0% m/m decrease in value from the N$64.9 worth of addition approvals in July. Year-to-date, 983 additions have been approved at a value of N$466.0 million, a 3.4% decrease in number, but a 2.7% increase in value terms. In August, 78 additions were completed at a value of N$17.18 million. Although the number and value of additions completed per month trend to vary widely – August’s figures sit close to the year-to-date averages.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 83 approvals registered in August. In terms of value, the N$84.1 million worth of residential units approved in August represents a 4.7% m/m increase. Year-to-date 583 units worth N$694.9 million have been approved, double the value of residential approvals achieved this time last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved increased by 123.1% y/y and 98.0% in value terms. 53 new residential units worth N$51.2 million were completed in August. This represents a year-to-date decrease in value of 59.8% compared to this time last August. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units completed stands is 526 at a value of N$531.8 million. As such, the 12-month cumulative value of completed residential units decreased, by 45.1% y/y, for the first time in over a year.  

In August five commercial units, valued at N$20.4 million, were approved. Year-to-date, 25 commercial buildings at a value of N$87.8 million have been approved.  No commercial building projects have been completed since March. This is the longest run of zero completions in the commercial construction sector since independence. Commercial projects continue to be approved; they are not being completed.

On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of buildings completed fell by 42.9% y/y, translating to a 57.4% y/y decrease in value. There is a simple, mechanical explanation for this. Namibia’s first hard lockdown of 2020 put a pause on all building projects. In April of that year no construction projects; be that additions, residential units or commercial projects were completed. This is likely to have created a glut of unfinished construction projects. As construction sites reopened, the following five months saw a massive spike in the value of completed projects. For example, in August of 2020 the value of completed construction projects was N$395.0 million – the most ever added in one month. This August’s figure for the 12-month cumulative value of completed construction projects is the first this year to not consider the large, distorted, values of completed projects from the May 2020 – September 2020 post-lockdown period. The 12-month cumulative value of plans completed now, despite the large decrease recorded this August, gives a more accurate picture of the short-term trends and current conditions in the Namibian construction industry.

The City of Windhoek approved 211 building plans in July, a 77.3% m/m increase from the yearly low of 119 approvals in June. The value of the approvals increased by 13.4% m/m to N$145.6 million, compared to the N$128.4 million recorded in June. 2021 has now seen 1,338 approvals, valued at N$1.09 billion, 19.4% higher in number terms and 12.5% higher in value terms than during the same period last year. The increase is from a low base due to the strict lockdown measures early last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, building plan approvals rose by 24.5% y/y to 2,499, while the value of approvals rose 0.7% y/y to N$1.97 billion. A total of 36 completions to the value of N$24.4 million were recorded in July. Year-to-date, 838 building plans, valued at N$449.5 million have been completed, a 23.3% decline in number terms, and a 50.1% contraction in value terms, compared to the same period a year-ago.

Additions to properties made up most approvals. In July, 137 additions valued at N$64.9 million were approved, breaking a two-month streak of consecutive declines in both number and value terms. Year-to-date, 818 additions have been approved with a value of N$408.9 million, a 4.9% decrease in number, but a 4.9% y/y increase in value terms. Only 6 additions to properties were completed in July at a value of N$3.27 million, a 80.4% m/m decrease in value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 73 approvals registered in July, 22 more than in June. In value terms, N$80.4 million worth of residential units were approved in July, a 4.0% m/m and 11.2% y/y increase. So far in 2021 500 units worth N$610.8 million have been approved. This translates to a year-to-date increase in value of 93.6% . On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of residential units approved increased by 146.6% y/y and by 86.3% y/y in value terms. 30 new residential units worth N$21.1 million were completed in July.

Only one commercial unit, valued at N$280,000 was approved in July. This brings the total number of commercial buildings approved in 2021 to 20, at a value of N$67.4 million. While 30 commercial buildings, valued at a N$137.6 million, have been approved in the last 12 months, no commercial units were completed for the fourth month running. Year-to-date, commercial and industrial completions account for only 1.3% of the total value of completions, well below the pre-pandemic 2019 average contribution.   

On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of building plans approved increased by 24.5% y/y. This increase is however from a low base. 2,499 building plans to the value of N$1.97 billion were approved in the last 12 months, representing a 0.7% y/y increase in value. Additions to properties made up 63.9% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 36.3% of the total value of approvals. Commercial and industrial building plan approvals are on course to be even lower in 2021 than in 2020 with only 20 approvals worth N$67.4 million thus far, compared to 31 approvals worth N$261.0 million at the same point last year. As building plan approvals is a forward-looking measure of expected construction activity this does not bode well for economic activity in the capital in general. The construction industry thus remains fragile.