Category Archives: Building Plans

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 271 building plans worth N$237.2 million in November, 35 fewer than in October. In value terms, approvals fell by N$90.5 million to N$237.2 million in November from N$327.7 million worth of approvals in October. A total of 61 building plans worth N$40.4 million were completed during the month, a decline of 76.3% y/y in number and 82.8% y/y in value of completions. Year-to-date, N$1.78 billion worth of building plans have been approved, 2.7% lower than the corresponding period in 2019. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,258 building plans have been approved worth approximately N$1.94 billion, 2.8% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of November 2019.

The largest portion of building plan approvals in November was made up of additions to properties. 165 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$95.1 million, 11.3% lower in number, but 42.4% more in value terms than in October. Year-to-date 1,517 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$673.5 million, a 3.1% y/y decline in number and 9.3% y/y decrease in value. 10 additions worth N$5.5 million were completed during the month. Year-to-date 866 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$444.8 million, down 31.2% y/y in number and 34.8% y/y in value terms.

New residential units accounted for 104 of the total 271 approvals registered in November, an 9.6% m/m decrease compared to the 115 residential units approved in October. In value terms, N$132.0 million worth of residential units were approved during the month, 45.6% less than the N$242.9 million worth of residential approvals in October. Year-to-date 610 residential units have been approved worth N$798.2 million, 278 units more than in the corresponding period in 2019 and up N$280.4 million in value terms. 51 Residential units valued at N$34.9 million were completed in November, bringing the year-to-date number to 690, up 147.3% y/y. In monetary terms, this is an increase of 170.4% y/y.

Only 2 new commercial units, valued at N$10.0 million, were approved in November, bringing the year-to-date number of approvals to 40, worth a total of N$305.0 million. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 43 units worth N$315.6 million as at November, compared to the 47 approved units worth N$566.1 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in November.

On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of building plan approvals have been ticking up steadily since June, although the growth has been from a relatively low base. In monetary terms, these approvals are up only 2.8% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 70.0% of the year-to-date total number of approvals, but only 37.9% of the total value of approvals, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The cumulative value of plans approved is still trending downward from a longer-term perspective, as the graph above indicates.

A total of 306 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in October, 72 more than in September. In value terms, approvals rose by N$194.1 million to N$327.7 million in October from N$133.6 million worth of approvals in September. A total of 65 building plans were completed at a value of N$54.8 million in October, a decrease of 73.4% y/y in number and 50.1% y/y in value of completions. Year-to-date, N$1.54 billion worth of building plans have been approved, 9.6% lower than the comparative period a year ago. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,173 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.83 billion, 1.2% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of October 2019.

The largest number of building plan approvals in October was made up of additions to properties. 186 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$67.0 million, 25.7% higher in number and 15.5% more in value terms than in September. Year-to-date 1,352 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$578.4 million, a 3.4% decline in number and 11.9% y/y decrease in value. 17 additions worth N$15.1 million were completed during the month. Year-to-date 856 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$439.3 million, down 16.7% y/y in number and 8.0% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 115 approvals registered in October, 30 more than in September. In value terms, N$242.9 million worth of residential units were approved in October, an increase of 35.3% m/m and 224.9% y/y. Year-to-date 506 new residential units have been approved worth N$666.2 million, an increase of 60.1% and 36.0% compared to the same time last year. 47 Residential units valued at N$39.3 million were completed in October bringing the year-to-date number to 639, up 151.6% y/y. In value terms this is an increase of 183.0% y/y to N$992.5 million.

5 New commercial units, valued at N$18.0 million, were approved in October, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 38, worth a total of N$295.0 million. Bar one month, the number of approvals for commercial and industrial properties has been languishing in single-digit territory since September 2016 and has an average approval rate of fewer than 4 approvals per month over the last 12 months. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 46 units, worth approximately N$314.8 million, a decrease of 43.6% in value terms from the period ending October 2019. One commercial building plan was recorded as completed in October, valued at N$400,000.

During the last 12 months, 2,173 building plans have been approved, increasing by 11.6% y/y. These approvals were worth a combined N$1.83 billion, an increase in value of 1.2% y/y. The last 3 months have seen a steady uptick in the 12-month cumulative number of plans approved in the capital, but the growth in the cumulative value of plans approved have been lagging, for the most part, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The cumulative value of plans approved is still trending downward from a longer-term perspective, as the graph above indicates.

The value of plans completed has however recovered more significantly as can be seen in the below figure, although as we have cautioned in the past, this could simply be due to a completions backlog (paperwork backlog) which is now being processed by the City of Windhoek, making it difficult to say when the actual construction activity took place.

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 234 building plans worth N$133.6 million in September. In value terms approvals rose by 19.3% m/m but fell by 69.1% y/y. A total of 74 completions to the value of N$115.4 million were recorded in September, a decrease of 67.1% y/y in number but a 5.0% y/y increase in value. The year-to-date value of approved building plans reached N$1.21 billion, 22.7% lower than the comparative period a year ago. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,081 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.64 billion, 10.5% lower in value terms than approvals at the end of September 2019.

The majority of building plan approvals were made up of additions to properties. For the month of September 148 additions were approved worth N$57.8 million, 6.3% less in number and 9.6% less in value than in August. Year-to-date, 1,166 additions have been approved with a value of N$511.6 million, a 4.5% y/y decrease in number and 11.7% y/y decrease in value. 38 additions worth N$18.5 million were completed during the month. In 2020 thus far 839 additions have been completed worth N$424.2 million, an increase of 3.2% y/y in number and 7.4% y/y in value.

New residential units accounted for 85 of the total 234 approvals registered in September, worth N$74.8 million. Year-to-date 391 new residential units have been approved worth N$423.3 million, an increase of 37.2% y/y in number but a decrease of 4.2% y/y in value. 35 new residential units worth N$95.9 million were completed during the month, increases of 84.2% y/y in number and 294.1% y/y in value. Year-to-date 592 residential units have been completed at a value of N$953.2 million, increasing by 163.1% y/y in number and 194.9% y/y in value. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number and value of residential completions are at the highest levels since 2005.   

Only 1 new commercial unit, valued at N$1.0 million, was approved in September, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 33, worth a total of N$277.0 million. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed further to 45 worth N$306.4 million as at September, representing an increase of 2.3% y/y in number and a decrease of 45.0% y/y in value.

As illustrated in the figure above, the cumulative value of building plans approved continues to trend downward in both nominal and inflation adjusted terms. As approvals is a forward-looking measure of expected construction activity this does not bode well for economic activity in the capital in general. What may be positive however is the ratio of completions to lagged approvals seems to indicate a higher proportion of approved building plans actually being completed. This may partly explain why the approvals data failed to predict the below visible increase in completions. Another possible explanation is that there has been a completions backlog (paperwork backlog) which is now being processed, in which case the below graph does not tell us much about when the actual construction activity took place. We thus caution reading too much into the completions data and continue to look at approvals as a leading economic indicator.