New Vehicle Sales – November 2017

1,058 New vehicles were sold in November, a decrease of 3.8% m/m and 18.1% y/y. Year-to-date 12,435 new vehicles have been sold, a 19.6% decrease from November last year. On a cumulative 12-month basis 13,486 new vehicles have been sold, the lowest level since March 2013. This represents a decline of 20.9% from November 2016 and a decline of 40.5% from the peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. The trend of slowing vehicle sales continues unabated reflecting the pressures on corporates and individuals in the recessionary environment Namibia finds itself in.

A total of 415 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, down 8.2% m/m and 18.5% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 5,243, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding five years and a 18.8% decline from November 2016. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since March 2012, highlighting the severity of the slowdown.

Commercial vehicle sales display the same trend, declining 20.2% year-to-date and 21.6% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 643 new commercial vehicles were sold in November, which were made up of 564 light-, 30 medium-, and 49 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles. Year to date 7,192 new commercial vehicles have been sold. On a year to date basis light commercial sales have declined by 21.1%, medium commercial sales are down 12.4% and heavy and extra heavy sales have decreased by 8.3%.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales in 2017 with 35.2% of the passenger vehicle market followed by Volkswagen with a 24.9% share. Toyota also remains the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 49.4% market share with Nissan in second place with a 16.6% share. In the medium commercial section of the market Hino leads the pack with a 36.3% market share followed by Iveco at 26.4%. The heavy and extra heavy category is dominated by Scania with 35.7% of new vehicle sales.

The Bottom Line
Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are hovering around 2013 levels. This is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. Tighter credit conditions and the possibility of higher interest rates coupled with indebted consumers have also hampered new vehicle sales. The continued slowdown in commercial vehicle sales remain worrisome as this is an indication of lower capital expenditure by corporates and lower business confidence. It remains unlikely that vehicle sales will recover anytime soon as the current business environment does not show any signs of reprieve.

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