A total of 1,721 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during November. New vehicle sales decreased by 13.6% year on year and decreased 2.6% month on month. At this point of the year, 19,663 vehicles have been sold so far in 2015, down 2.3% on the comparable period of 2014. Thus Namibia is no longer on track for a record year of new vehicle sales, the declining rate of growth of new vehicle sales suggests that we may see a contraction. The 12-month cumulative measure of new vehicles sold decreased further to 21,494 in November from a high of 22,664 in April, largely due to an elevated base and strong vehicle sales in 2014.
Passenger vehicle sales fell by 19.1% month on month, from 727 in October to 588 in November, down from a high of 910 in March this year. On a year to date basis, sales of passenger vehicles slowed further by 4.4% to 8,421, while year on year sales fell by 23.0% off a high base. 2014 saw exceptional growth in passenger vehicle sales, setting a high base, which has proven to be unsustainable as the year to date percentage change in vehicle sales has shown.
Commercial vehicle sales increased by 8.9% month on month as 1,133 vehicles were sold. On a year on year basis commercial vehicle sales decreased by 7.7%, and the year to date figure is now lower than for the same period last year as the growth rate in commercial vehicle sales declined steadily, turning negative for the first time in 29 months. Light commercial vehicle sales increased by 12.2% fell 6.7% year on year. Medium commercial vehicle sales fell 44.2% month on month and 38.5% year on year, largely due to the low number of vehicles sold in this category. Heavy commercial vehicle sales fell by 3.0% month on month and 17.2% year on year. Medium and Heavy commercial vehicle sales figures fluctuate greatly due to the low numbers of these vehicles that are sold on a monthly basis. On a year to date basis both medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales are still on track for a record year while light commercial sales figures have declined to below last year’s level.
Toyota once again topped the number of vehicles sold per brand for the month at 824, a market share of 47.9%. 184 or 31.3% of the 588 passenger vehicles sold during the month were Toyotas, as well as 639 or 61.1% of the 1,045 light commercial vehicles sold. Volkswagen moved 118 passenger vehicles or 20.1% of the total sold during the month. Volkswagen’s market share was 8.8% of the total. Nissan lost some market share this month with 9.3% of the total vehicle sales and Ford’s market share declined to 6.3% for the month.
The Bottom Line
We have seen exceptionally strong vehicle sales growth through 2014, fuelled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth, but the latest figures show that this trend is losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales in 2014 have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold as a whole is still strong. We expect to see vehicle sales normalising somewhat at the levels seen this year. Downside risks to this are rising interest rates which may limit marginal lenders from qualifying for financing as well as banking sector liquidity which may limit the amount of loans available to finance vehicle purchases.