Category Archives: Team Commentary

Team Commentary

Final National Accounts, 2014

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The Namibia Statistics Agency has just released the final national accounts for 2014. As per our expectations, we have seen a major upward revision in the overall real growth rate, from 4.5% to 6.4%, slightly below our forecast of 6.8%. This revision brings both the overall growth level more in line with levels seen in high frequency indicators through the year, as well as showing notable improvement in many of the sectors growth levels, bringing these more in line with growth witnessed on the ground.

Some of the key revisions to the supply side tables (real GDP) are noted below.

NamGrowth

REalGDP GrowthGDP2014IJGvsNARealGDPGrowth

We also note that we have seen a sizable revision to the deflator between the nominal and real GDP figures. The peculiarly high deflator in the preliminary accounts was of some concern to us, as we believed it was artificially large, and dampening the real GDP growth picture. The new and previous deflators, relative to NCPI, can be seen below.

NAmDeflator

We are currently working on a National Accounts review, and will share more thoughts on the current release in due course.

 

Bidvest Namibia Trading Statement

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Bidvest Namibia anticipates basic earnings per share (EPS) for the year ended June 30 2015 to be up between 17% and 19% on the previous corresponding period and headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the year ended June 30 2015 to be down between 10% and 12%.

The reason for the difference between the increase in EPS and the decline in HEPS is due to the capital profit realised on the sale of a fishing vessel. The decline in HEPS results primarily from the significantly lower horse mackerel quota allocation received by Namsov and its joint venture partners with the second quota allocation for the 2014 calendar year.

This trading statement has not been reviewed or reported on by Bidvest Namibia’s external auditors. The release of the announcement of the audited results for the year ended June 30 2015 is expected to be published on or about August 25 2015.