Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

1,100 New vehicles were sold in October, a decrease of 3.6% m/m and 6.7% y/y. Year-to-date 11,535 new vehicles have been sold, an 18.6% decrease on October last year. On a rolling 12-month basis 13,878 new vehicles have been sold in Namibia, down 20.6% from October 2016, and down 38.8% from peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. New vehicle sales continue to decline on a year-to-date and cumulative basis, reflecting the pressure that individuals and businesses, as well as government, are experiencing in the current economic climate.

A total of 452 new passenger vehicles were sold during October, up 2.0% m/m but down 2.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 4,873, down 18.1% compared to the number sold by October last year. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2012. On a year-to-date basis passenger vehicle sales are currently between 2011 and 2012 year-to-date figures for October, highlighting the extent of the slowdown.

Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, down 19.1% year-to-date and 21.9% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 648 new commercial vehicles were sold in October and 6,662 have been sold year-to-date. Light commercial vehicle sales are down 36.1% from their peak, slightly less than the 40.9% that passenger vehicle sales are down. Medium commercial vehicle sales are down 50.1% from their peak, while heavy commercial vehicles are down 46.6% since peaking in December 2015. Total new commercial vehicle sales are down 10.0% m/m, with medium commercial vehicle sales declining 30.8% from last month, light commercial vehicle sales declining 9.8% m/m, and heavy commercial vehicle sales increasing 3.0% m/m.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales with 34.9% of the passenger vehicle market and 48.2% of the light commercial market for the year thus far. Volkswagen holds the second place with 24.6% of passenger vehicle sales, while Nissan takes second place in the light commercial vehicles category with 16.5% of sales this year. Ford retains the third position in both passenger and light commercial new vehicle sales on a year to date basis. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 34.6% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 32.6% of the market share year to date.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are still below 2012 levels. This is a reflection of depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as slowed government spending on new vehicles. Tighter credit conditions have only exacerbated the above conditions. The current interest rate environment remains precarious as inflation is likely to pick up following the depreciation of the rand as well as due to higher US$ oil prices. Should a rate hiking cycle commence consumers will come under further pressure. Household debt to disposable incomes have been rising making consumers more susceptible to interest rate hikes.

1,163 New vehicles were sold in September, an increase of 6.3% m/m, but down 3.6% y/y. Year-to-date 10,435 new vehicles have been sold, a 19.7% on last year. On a rolling 12-month basis 13,957 new vehicles have been sold in Namibia, down 22.8% from September 2016, and down 38.4% from peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. On a calendar year basis 2014 was the peak in total new vehicle sales, with decreases in each subsequent year. Currently 2017 is on track to deliver new vehicle sales similar to numbers last seen in 2012.

A total of 443 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, up 10.8% m/m. Year-to-date passenger sales rose to 4,421, down 19.4% compared to the number sold by September last year. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2012. Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, down 20.0% year-to-date and 23.6% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 720 new commercial vehicles were sold in September and 6,014 have been sold year-to-date. Light commercial vehicle sales are down 35.5% from their peak, slightly less than the 40.8% that passenger vehicle sales are down. Medium commercial vehicle sales are down 50.5% from their peak, while heavy commercial vehicles are down 46.4% since peaking in December 2015.

Outstanding installment credit has contracted on a year-on-year basis in each of the last three months as customers purchase less new vehicles. Credit extension to corporates, a leading economic indicator, continues to slow which points to further economic stagnation which is likely to show in vehicle sales figures leading up to the end of the year. The IJG business climate monitor, while showing some signs of improvement in the economy, continues to be in recessionary territory also pointing to further depressed vehicle sales figures going forward.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales with 35% of the passenger vehicle market and 47.9% of the light commercial market this year. Volkswagen holds the second place with 24.9% of passenger vehicle sales, while Nissan takes second place in the light commercial vehicles category with 16.3% of sales this year. Ford retains the third position in both passenger and light commercial new vehicle sales on a year to date basis. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 34.8% of sales while Scania has 32% of the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market cornered year to date.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are currently below 2012 levels. This is a reflection of depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as slowed government spending on new vehicles. Tighter credit conditions have only exacerbated the above conditions. The current interest rate environment is precarious with South Africa teetering on the edge of a local currency credit ratings downgrade which, should it take place, will see rapid currency depreciation. This will likely be followed by interest rate hikes which, along with higher prices for vehicles, will put further pressure on consumers. However, should positive political outcomes be seen in South Africa, there is scope for currency appreciation and further monetary easing, bringing relief to Namibian consumers too, and kick-starting the economy.

New vehicle sales of 1,094 units were recorded in August, with sales falling by 19.9% from the 1,366 new vehicles sold in August 2016. On a m/m basis, new vehicle sales fell by 18.7%, with August recording 252 less in sales than July. Year to date, 9,272 vehicles have been sold, 21.4% less than sales recorded in the corresponding period of 2016. Of the 9,272 vehicles sold this year, 3,978 were passenger vehicles, 4,848 were light commercial vehicles, and 446 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

Passenger vehicle sales fell by 24.5% y/y, to 400 vehicles, while commercial vehicle sales have fell by 17.0% y/y. Of the 694 commercial vehicles sold in August: 650 were classified as light, 12 as medium and 32 as heavy. Heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 25.6% y/y. The highest volume for this calendar year so far, was the sales in June of 83 units, which provided some optimism as increased capital spending pointed toward improving business confidence. Light commercial vehicles sales make up the bulk of this category’s sales, reporting a decline of 15.7% m/m and falling 15.1% y/y.

On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales remain under pressure, contracting by 24.4% y/y. Instalment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, has slowed considerably. Although, instalment credit increased by 0.5% m/m in July, this followed six months of consecutive m/m declines, bringing the annual growth to -1.4% y/y.

Year to date, Toyota and Volkswagen continue to maintain their strong hold on the passenger vehicle market. Based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 36% and 25% of the market respectively. They were followed by Ford and Mercedes at 7% and 4% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market continues to be shared by several competitors. Toyota also remains the leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 47% of the market, followed by Nissan at 16%. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12% and 9% of the number of light commercial vehicles sold in 2017.

Hino leads in medium commercial vehicles with 33% of the market, with Iveco following with 27%. In the heavy and extra heavy category, Scania and Mercedes have sold the most vehicles, claiming 29% and 17% of the market respectively. UD Trucks came in at third, with 14% of the number of vehicles sold in this category in 2017.

The Bottom Line

Overall vehicle sales are under pressure and have been since late 2015. The Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) growth figures prove testament to waning consumer and business confidence and an already stretched consumer as instalment credit, mainly used to finance capital goods, remains sluggish. The amendments to the Credit Agreement Act had a significant effect on consumer spending as well. Bearing in mind that government is still in its fiscal consolidation cycle with no with little to no plans to increase capital expenditure in sight. Vehicle sales showed signs of slight improvement the previous three months before slumping by 18.7% m/m, and is likely to remain subdued going forward.