Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 1,039 new vehicles were sold in February, which represents an 18.1% m/m increase from the 881 sold in January. This is however 10.0% lower than the 1,155 new vehicles sold in February 2017. Two months into 2018, 1,919 new vehicles have been sold of which 939 were passenger vehicles, 915 light commercial and 65 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is a 6.3% decline in the total number of new vehicles sold during the first two months of 2018 when compared to 2017. From a rolling 12-month basis the statistics look even worse, a total of 13,071 new vehicles were sold as at February 2018 representing a contraction of 17.7% from the 15,873 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total 513 new passenger vehicles were sold during February, taking cue from January’s month on month improvement and increasing by 20.4% m/m. From a year on year perspective however, February 2018 new vehicle sales were 15 units lower than the 528 sold a year ago. The rolling 12-month vehicles sales continue to reflect weakness in the number of passenger vehicles sold, declining 16.3% as at February 2018. For the past 12 months, passenger vehicles have, on average, made up 43.0% of the total number of new vehicles sold.

526 Commercial vehicles were sold in February, representing a 15.9% m/m and 16.1% y/y contraction. 488 light commercial vehicles, 19 medium commercial vehicles, and 19 heavy commercial vehicles were sold in February. On a year on year basis light commercial sales have declined by 15.4%, medium commercial sales contracted 5.0% and heavy and extra heavy sales have declined by a hefty 36.7%.

Year to date Toyota and Volkswagen continue to hold their market share in the passenger vehicle market based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 37.0% and 27.0% of the market respectively. They were followed by Mercedes at 5.2% and Ford at 5.0%, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 58.0% market share with Nissan in second place with a 14.0% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 7.8% and 6.6%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold so far in 2018, swapping places they held for the same period in 2017. In the heavy category, Hino and Mercedes started have thus far sold 7 heavy or extra heavy vehicles each representing 22.0% of the number of heavy commercial vehicles sold this year.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative new vehicle sales continue its downward trend in February, the reduction in government spending does have a direct effect on the demand for new vehicles. Government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation in the current recessionary environment dims prospects for new vehicle sales in 2018. Individuals are purchasing almost as many units as corporates and this is worrying in that corporates are not investing in capital goods, which is an indication of the weakened business confidence carried forward from 2017. Tighter credit controls introduced in March 2017 have limited demand for vehicle finance. Consumers currently account for almost 90% of the private sector credit issuance and are heavily indebted. Given that individuals make up almost half of the total vehicles purchased and with corporates buying less and less vehicles, the slowdown in new vehicle sales is very likely to continue well into 2018.

881 New vehicles were sold in January, which represents a 5.6% m/m increase from the 834 sold in December. This is however 0.5% lower than the 885 new vehicles sold in January 2017. From a rolling 12-month basis, a total of 13,195 new vehicles were sold at January 2018 representing a contraction of 17.8% from the 16,043 sold over the same period in 2017 and as illustrated below, 2018 is getting off to a slow start.

A total of 427 new passenger vehicles were sold during January, increasing by 14.8% m/m and 10.6% y/y. January 2018 has so far registered a better start to the year. The previous two years have both recorded a y/y and m/m decline. Passenger vehicle sales have been impacted in large by amendments to the Credit Act that requires tighter credit conditions, as well as by reduced government expenditure and depressed consumer confidence in the current economic climate.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 454 units, a 1.7% m/m, and 9.0% y/y contraction. For January, 427 light commercial vehicles, 14 medium commercial vehicles, and 13 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year on year basis light commercial sales have declined by 9.1%, medium commercial sales started the year as they did in 2017 and heavy and extra heavy sales have decreased by 13.3%.

Toyota is starting off 2018 with a firm grasp on the market for new vehicle sales with a 43% share of the passenger vehicle market followed by Volkswagen with 19%. Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 62% market share with Nissan in second place with a 11% share.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative new vehicle sales have been on the decline since December 2015 and continues its downward trend in January to its lowest level since March 2012. The current recessionary environment coupled with the reduction in government spending is further highlighted by depressed business and consumer confidence. Tighter credit controls have limited the amount of credit available that is used to finance vehicle purchases, slowing private credit extension, particularly instalment credit, proves as testament to the decline. Lower levels of capital expenditure from corporates remains worrisome, while relief for business and consumers alike rest on the renewed optimism in SA, now under new leadership, which might well avoid a ratings downgrade and possibly opening the door to a rate cutting cycle.

835 New vehicles were sold in December, a decrease of 18.9% m/m and 20.6% y/y. Year-to-date 13,202 new vehicles have been sold, a 20.1% decrease from December last year, the lowest annual vehicle sales figure since 2011. New vehicle sales are now down 41.7% from their peak, reflecting the pressures on corporates, individuals, as well as government in the recessionary environment that Namibia finds itself in. While the figures above are likely to change over the next few months as the data improves, it is unlikely that much upward revision can be expected.

A total of 373 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, down 7.9% m/m and 11.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 5,590, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding five years and a 18.8% decline from December 2016. Passenger vehicle sales have slowed dramatically as a result of tighter credit conditions, depressed government expenditure and low consumer confidence in the current economic climate. On a rolling 12-month basis new passenger vehicle sales were down 43.1% from the peak in April 2015.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 462 units, a 26.0% m/m, and 26.6% y/y contraction. Year-to-date commercial vehicles sales are down 21.1%, and down 40.7% from the peak. For December, 402 light commercial vehicles, 11 medium commercial vehicles, and 49 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year to date basis light commercial sales have declined by 22.3%, medium commercial sales are down 13.9% and heavy and extra heavy sales have decreased by 1.5%.

Toyota continued to lead the market for new vehicle sales in 2017 with 35.8% of the passenger vehicle market followed by Volkswagen with a 24.8% share. Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 49.9% market share with Nissan in second place with a 16.8% share. In the medium commercial section of the market Hino led the pack with a 35.9% market share followed by Iveco at 25.1%. The heavy and extra heavy category was dominated by Scania with 36.3% of new vehicle sales.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative new vehicle sales fell to the lowest level in five years on a rolling 12-month basis. This is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. Tighter credit conditions and indebted consumers further hampered new vehicle sales. The continued slowdown in commercial vehicle sales remains worrisome as this is an indication of lower capital expenditure by corporates and lower business confidence in general. While vehicle sales may not drop much further, a rapid recovery in these metrics will only be seen once government resumes normal expenditure patterns and business confidence improves. While the latter may have bottomed out, there is still great uncertainty regarding the former.