Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

835 New vehicles were sold in December, a decrease of 18.9% m/m and 20.6% y/y. Year-to-date 13,202 new vehicles have been sold, a 20.1% decrease from December last year, the lowest annual vehicle sales figure since 2011. New vehicle sales are now down 41.7% from their peak, reflecting the pressures on corporates, individuals, as well as government in the recessionary environment that Namibia finds itself in. While the figures above are likely to change over the next few months as the data improves, it is unlikely that much upward revision can be expected.

A total of 373 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, down 7.9% m/m and 11.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 5,590, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding five years and a 18.8% decline from December 2016. Passenger vehicle sales have slowed dramatically as a result of tighter credit conditions, depressed government expenditure and low consumer confidence in the current economic climate. On a rolling 12-month basis new passenger vehicle sales were down 43.1% from the peak in April 2015.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 462 units, a 26.0% m/m, and 26.6% y/y contraction. Year-to-date commercial vehicles sales are down 21.1%, and down 40.7% from the peak. For December, 402 light commercial vehicles, 11 medium commercial vehicles, and 49 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year to date basis light commercial sales have declined by 22.3%, medium commercial sales are down 13.9% and heavy and extra heavy sales have decreased by 1.5%.

Toyota continued to lead the market for new vehicle sales in 2017 with 35.8% of the passenger vehicle market followed by Volkswagen with a 24.8% share. Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 49.9% market share with Nissan in second place with a 16.8% share. In the medium commercial section of the market Hino led the pack with a 35.9% market share followed by Iveco at 25.1%. The heavy and extra heavy category was dominated by Scania with 36.3% of new vehicle sales.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative new vehicle sales fell to the lowest level in five years on a rolling 12-month basis. This is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. Tighter credit conditions and indebted consumers further hampered new vehicle sales. The continued slowdown in commercial vehicle sales remains worrisome as this is an indication of lower capital expenditure by corporates and lower business confidence in general. While vehicle sales may not drop much further, a rapid recovery in these metrics will only be seen once government resumes normal expenditure patterns and business confidence improves. While the latter may have bottomed out, there is still great uncertainty regarding the former.

1,058 New vehicles were sold in November, a decrease of 3.8% m/m and 18.1% y/y. Year-to-date 12,435 new vehicles have been sold, a 19.6% decrease from November last year. On a cumulative 12-month basis 13,486 new vehicles have been sold, the lowest level since March 2013. This represents a decline of 20.9% from November 2016 and a decline of 40.5% from the peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. The trend of slowing vehicle sales continues unabated reflecting the pressures on corporates and individuals in the recessionary environment Namibia finds itself in.

A total of 415 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, down 8.2% m/m and 18.5% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 5,243, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding five years and a 18.8% decline from November 2016. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since March 2012, highlighting the severity of the slowdown.

Commercial vehicle sales display the same trend, declining 20.2% year-to-date and 21.6% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 643 new commercial vehicles were sold in November, which were made up of 564 light-, 30 medium-, and 49 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles. Year to date 7,192 new commercial vehicles have been sold. On a year to date basis light commercial sales have declined by 21.1%, medium commercial sales are down 12.4% and heavy and extra heavy sales have decreased by 8.3%.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales in 2017 with 35.2% of the passenger vehicle market followed by Volkswagen with a 24.9% share. Toyota also remains the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 49.4% market share with Nissan in second place with a 16.6% share. In the medium commercial section of the market Hino leads the pack with a 36.3% market share followed by Iveco at 26.4%. The heavy and extra heavy category is dominated by Scania with 35.7% of new vehicle sales.

The Bottom Line
Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are hovering around 2013 levels. This is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. Tighter credit conditions and the possibility of higher interest rates coupled with indebted consumers have also hampered new vehicle sales. The continued slowdown in commercial vehicle sales remain worrisome as this is an indication of lower capital expenditure by corporates and lower business confidence. It remains unlikely that vehicle sales will recover anytime soon as the current business environment does not show any signs of reprieve.

1,100 New vehicles were sold in October, a decrease of 3.6% m/m and 6.7% y/y. Year-to-date 11,535 new vehicles have been sold, an 18.6% decrease on October last year. On a rolling 12-month basis 13,878 new vehicles have been sold in Namibia, down 20.6% from October 2016, and down 38.8% from peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. New vehicle sales continue to decline on a year-to-date and cumulative basis, reflecting the pressure that individuals and businesses, as well as government, are experiencing in the current economic climate.

A total of 452 new passenger vehicles were sold during October, up 2.0% m/m but down 2.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 4,873, down 18.1% compared to the number sold by October last year. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2012. On a year-to-date basis passenger vehicle sales are currently between 2011 and 2012 year-to-date figures for October, highlighting the extent of the slowdown.

Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, down 19.1% year-to-date and 21.9% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 648 new commercial vehicles were sold in October and 6,662 have been sold year-to-date. Light commercial vehicle sales are down 36.1% from their peak, slightly less than the 40.9% that passenger vehicle sales are down. Medium commercial vehicle sales are down 50.1% from their peak, while heavy commercial vehicles are down 46.6% since peaking in December 2015. Total new commercial vehicle sales are down 10.0% m/m, with medium commercial vehicle sales declining 30.8% from last month, light commercial vehicle sales declining 9.8% m/m, and heavy commercial vehicle sales increasing 3.0% m/m.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales with 34.9% of the passenger vehicle market and 48.2% of the light commercial market for the year thus far. Volkswagen holds the second place with 24.6% of passenger vehicle sales, while Nissan takes second place in the light commercial vehicles category with 16.5% of sales this year. Ford retains the third position in both passenger and light commercial new vehicle sales on a year to date basis. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 34.6% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 32.6% of the market share year to date.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are still below 2012 levels. This is a reflection of depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as slowed government spending on new vehicles. Tighter credit conditions have only exacerbated the above conditions. The current interest rate environment remains precarious as inflation is likely to pick up following the depreciation of the rand as well as due to higher US$ oil prices. Should a rate hiking cycle commence consumers will come under further pressure. Household debt to disposable incomes have been rising making consumers more susceptible to interest rate hikes.