Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

905 New vehicles were sold in October, representing a 7.8% decrease from the 982 vehicles sold in September, and an 8.7% decrease from October 2017 when 991 new vehicles were sold. Year-to-date 9,957 vehicles have been sold of which 4,361 were passenger vehicles, 5,049 light commercial vehicles, and 547 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,793 new vehicles were sold as at 31 October 2018, which represents a contraction of 13.1% from the 13,565 sold over the comparable period a year ago. New vehicle sales are thus still in decline despite the low base set in 2016 and 2017.

A total of 399 new passenger vehicles were sold during October, increasing by 19.8% m/m but declining by 2.0% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 4,361, down 8.3% y/y. On a rolling 12-month basis new passenger vehicle sales were down 47.8% from the peak in April 2015.

Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 13.4% year-to-date and 15.4% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 506 new commercial vehicles were sold in October, representing a contraction of 22.0% m/m and 13.4% y/y. 442 Light commercial vehicles, 18 medium commercial vehicles, and 46 heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales have dropped 16.8% y/y, while medium commercial sales rose 5.9% y/y, and heavy and extra heavy sales rose by 27.8% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 16.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 0.83% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose 0.2% y/y. This is the first month since November 2015 that medium commercial sales have showed positive growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis, and the first month since February 2016 that heavy commercial sales have showed positive growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis. The positive growth is negligible at this point but it is possible that a floor in medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales has been found as companies that have been sweating assets start to replace those vehicles.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018 based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 34.2% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.2% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.8% and 4.8% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 57.8% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 17.3% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.5% and 5.0%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2018. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 42.4% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 36.8% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The cumulative number of new vehicle sales continued to contract on a 12-month basis, amounting to 11,793 at the end of October. Government’s continued commitment to fiscal consolidation does have a direct effect on the demand for new vehicles. Government vehicle expenditure has fallen from N$1.02 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year to N$22.2 million in 2017/18. In his Mid-Term Budget Review Speech last month, finance minister Calle Schlettwein left the revised vehicle budget unchanged at N$11.9 million from the budget tabled in March. N$1.4 million is allocated to the Auditor General’s office for vehicles, N$10.0 million to Health and Social Services and N$500,000 to the Justice ministry. For the 2019/20 year, N$10.0 million is allocated to Health and Social Services for vehicles. These figures dim the prospects for new vehicle sales in the short- to medium-term.

982 New vehicles were sold in September, which represents a 7.4% m/m decrease from the 1,061 vehicles sold in August, and a 13.4% y/y decrease from September 2017. Year-to-date 9,052 vehicles have been sold of which 3,962 were passenger vehicles, 4,607 light commercial vehicles, and 483 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,879 new vehicles were sold as at 30 September 2018, representing a contraction of 13.7% from the 13,765 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 333 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, declining by 20.9% m/m and 23.1% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,962, down 8.9% when compared to the number sold by September last year. For the past three quarters, passenger vehicles have, on average, made up 43.7% of the total number of new vehicles sold.

649 New commercial vehicles were sold in September, representing a 1.4% m/m increase, but a 7.4% y/y contraction. 584 light commercial vehicles, 28 medium commercial vehicles, and 37 heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial vehicle sales have dropped by 8.8%, medium commercial sales were flat, and heavy and extra heavy sales rose by 12.1%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 17.2% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales declined by 1.6% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales dropped 2.1% y/y.

Year-to-date, Toyota and Volkswagen continue to hold their market share in the passenger vehicle market based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 34.8% and 27.8% of the market respectively. They were followed by Hyundai at 5.8% and Kia at 4.8%, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicles space with a robust 56.8% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 18.1% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.6% and 5.1%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold year-to-date. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 44.3% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 37.5% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The cumulative number of new vehicle sales continued to contract on a 12-month basis, amounting to 11,879 at the end of September. Year-on-year, the 12-month cumulative number of new vehicles sold has contracted by 13.7% from the 13,765 cumulative sales recorded in September 2017. If implemented, the proposed changes to the income tax legislation is very likely to have a negative impact on economic growth, and put additional pressure on both individuals and corporates. This means that lower spending on capital assets will reduce the demand which is already under pressure for both passenger and commercial vehicles.

A total of 1,061 new vehicles were sold in August, representing an 11.0% m/m decrease from the 1,192 vehicles sold in July, but 1.7% more than in August 2017. Year-to-date 8,070 vehicles have been sold of which 3,629 were passenger vehicles, 4,023 light commercial vehicles, and 418 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a rolling 12-month basis, a total of 12,031 new vehicles were sold as at 31 August 2018, representing a contraction of 13.1% from the 13,848 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 421 new passenger vehicles were sold during August, decreasing by a hefty 30.4% m/m. From a year-on-year perspective however, 39 more units were sold in August 2018 (up 10.2%) than a year ago. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 3,629 units, reflecting a 7.3% decline from August 2017.

640 New commercial vehicles were sold in August, representing a 9.0% m/m increase, but a 3.2% y/y contraction. 552 light commercial vehicles, 17 medium commercial vehicles, and 71 heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial vehicle sales have dropped by 10.2%, medium commercial sales increased 41.7% and heavy and extra heavy sales rose by 108.8%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, commercial vehicle sales remain depressed with light commercial vehicle sales decreasing by 16.9% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales declining by 0.8% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales dropping by 4.8% y/y.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new passenger vehicles sales in 2018 based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 35.5% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.0% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.5% and 4.7% respectively.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with 57.5% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 16.5% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 9.0% and 5.3% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 42.7% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 36.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The outlook for new vehicle sales remains bleak with the cumulative number of new vehicle sales as at the end of August amounting to 12,031, a decline of 47.0% from the peak of 22,664 new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015. Year-on-year, the cumulative number of new vehicles sold has contracted by 13.1% from the 13,848 cumulative sales recorded in August 2017. Factors such as fiscal consolidation, low consumer and business confidence, expected fuel price increases, coupled with an increasing likelihood of interest hikes over the next 24 months, mean that no significant recovery in vehicle sales can be expected over the short to medium-term.