New Vehicle Sales – January 2019

A total of 666 new vehicles were sold in January, which represents an 8.8% m/m decrease from the 730 vehicles sold in December, and a drop of 21.7% from the 851 new vehicles sold in January 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,721 new vehicles were sold at January 2019 representing a contraction of 9.9% from the 13,007 sold over the same period a year ago. 2019 is thus off to a sluggish start as illustrated by the lowest monthly sales number since May 2009.

330 new passenger vehicles were sold during January, 6.5% higher than the 310 passenger vehicle sales sold in December. From a year-on-year perspective however, January 2019 new passenger vehicle sales were 18.3% lower than the 404 sold a year ago. Passenger vehicle sales have been impacted by amendments to the Credit Act that requires tighter credit conditions, as well as by reduced government expenditure and depressed consumer confidence in the current economic climate.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 336 units in January, representing a contraction of 20.0% m/m and 24.8% y/y. During the month 301 light commercial vehicles, 14 medium commercial vehicles, and 21 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On an annual basis, light commercial sales have dropped by 21.2%, medium commercial sales rose by 27.3%, and heavy and extra heavy sales have declined by 22.2%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales fell 11.2% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 11.4% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales dropped 7.3% y/y.

Toyota started the year off with a 31.5% market share of new passenger vehicles sold, followed closely by Volkswagen with a 30.0% market share. They were followed by Kia and Mercedes with 6.4% and 5.8% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also started the year off with a firm grip on the light commercial vehicle market with a 75.7% market share, with Isuzu in second place with a 5.6% share. Ford and GWM claimed 4.7% and 3.7% of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year, respectively. Hino and Mercedes jointly lead the medium commercial vehicle category, each with 28.6% of the sales, while Man was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 47.6% of the market share in January.

The Bottom Line

12-month cumulative new vehicle sales have been declining since December 2015, amounting to 11,721 at the end of January, a decline of 48.3% from the peak of 22,664 cumulative new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015. While January new vehicle sales have historically been low when compared to most other months, 2019’s January figure was the lowest since 2006. The prospects for new vehicle sales remain dim in the short- to medium-term as government remains committed to fiscal consolidation and the economy remains in a recession, putting pressure on demand and investment.

New Vehicle Sales – December 2018

 

732 New vehicles were sold in December, down 38.2% m/m from the 1,185 vehicles sold in November, and a decrease of 11.3% y/y from the 825 new vehicles sold in December 2017. Year-to-date 11,875 vehicles have been sold, a 9.0% contraction from December last year and the lowest annual vehicle sales figure since December 2010. Of the 11,875 new vehicles sold during the year, 5,067 were passenger vehicles, 6,147 light commercial vehicles, and 661 medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

A total of 312 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, down 20.8% m/m and 15.4% y/y. 5,067 passenger vehicle were sold in total in 2018, an 8.2% decline from 2017 and lower annual sales than the preceding seven years. Passenger vehicle sales made up 42.7% of the total number of new vehicles sold during 2018, broadly in line with the trend over the last 4 years.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 420 units in December, a 46.9% m/m, and 7.9% y/y contraction. During the month 382 light commercial vehicles, 11 medium commercial vehicles, and 27 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales have declined by 5.0%, medium commercial sales rose by 37.5%, and heavy and extra heavy sales have declined by 41.3%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 10.2% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 8.6% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 8.3% y/y.

Toyota continued to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018, claiming 33.4% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.5% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.8% and 5.0% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the commercial vehicle space in 2018 with 56.1% market share, with Nissan in second place with an 18.8% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.2% and 5.1% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino lead the medium commercial vehicle category with 39.4% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 35.5% of the market share during the year.

The Bottom Line

The outlook for new vehicle sales remains bleak with the cumulative number of new vehicle sales for the year amounting to 11,875, a decline of 9.0% from the cumulative number of vehicles sold in 2017 and a 47.6% contraction from the peak of 22,664 new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015. The fact that the 12-month cumulative figure is hovering around 2011 levels is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. December new vehicle sales have historically been low when compared to most other months as people go on holiday and dealerships close, but 2018’s December figure was the lowest since 2008, pointing to the ongoing impact of the current recession on demand and investment.

New Vehicle Sales – November 2018

A total of 1,185 new vehicles were sold in November, representing a 30.9% m/m increase from the 905 vehicles sold in October, and a 17.3% y/y increase from the 1,010 new vehicles sold in November 2017. Year-to-date 11,143 vehicles have been sold of which 4,755 were passenger vehicles, 5,765 light commercial vehicles, and 623 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,969 new vehicles were sold as at 30 November 2018, representing a contraction of 9.9% from the 13,279 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 394 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, a decrease of 1.3% m/m and 1.0% y/y from the 398 passenger vehicles sold in November 2017. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales amounted to 4,755, down 7.7% compared to the number of new passenger vehicles sold by November last year. The rolling 12-month vehicles sales figures continue to reflect weakness in the number of passenger vehicles sold, declining 8.1% y/y as at November 2018.

791 New commercial vehicles were sold in November, representing a 56.3% m/m and 29.2% y/y increase. 716 light commercial vehicles, 20 medium commercial vehicles, and 55 heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales rose by 33.1%, medium commercial sales decreased 20.0% and heavy and extra heavy sales rose by 12.2%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 12.4% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 1.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose 1.9% y/y.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018 based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 33.8% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.6% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.7% and 4.9%, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with 56.1% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 19.5% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.0% and 4.9% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 40.9% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 35.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The cumulative number of new vehicle sales continued to contract on a 12-month basis, amounting to 11,143 at the end of November. Year-on-year, the 12-month cumulative number of new vehicles sold has contracted by 9.9% from the 11,969 cumulative sales recorded in November 2017. The prospects for new vehicle sales remain dim in the short- to medium-term as government remains committed to fiscal consolidation. Instalment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, continues its contracting trend, declining by 6.9% y/y at the end of October, a further indication that new vehicle sales are likely to remain subdued going forward.