Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 1,055 new vehicles were sold in May, a 13.9% m/m increase from the 926 vehicles sold in April. Year-to-date, 4,346 vehicles have been sold of which 2,094 were passenger vehicles, 2,015 were light commercial vehicles, and 237 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales increased by 1.4% m/m to 11,559 new vehicles sold as at the end of May 2019. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend, contracting by 5.0% from the 12,172 new vehicles sold over the comparable period a year ago.

512 New passenger vehicle sales were sold in May, an increased by 10.3% m/m and 39.1% y/y. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,094 units, reflecting lower cumulative sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 2.2% decline from the year-to-date figure recorded in May 2018. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales rose 2.9% m/m, but continued to slide on an annual basis, contracting by 1.8% y/y.

A total of 543 new commercial vehicles were sold in May, 17.5% more than in April and 1.9% more than in May 2018. Of the 543 commercial vehicles sold in May, 472 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 13 as medium commercial vehicles and 58 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 8.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 2.3% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose by 9.0% y/y. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales seem to have quelled the downward trend on a twelve-month cumulative basis. Medium commercial vehicle sales have registered modest growth by this measure for 8 consecutive months now, while heavy commercial vehicle sales have posted growth for the first time since early 2016.

Volkswagen leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 33.4% of the segment sales thus far in 2019. Toyota retained second place with 30.2% of the market-share as at the end of May. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes round out the top selling brands in the segment with 5.2%, 4.8% and 4.7% market share year-to-date. This leaves the remaining 21.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota remained the best-selling brand in the light commercial vehicle sales segment with 61.9% of the market share year-to-date. Ford drops to third place in the segment with 8.7% of the market share after being displaced by Nissan with 9.1% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 40.3% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 38.2 of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remain under pressure as is evident in the figures below. Year-to-date new vehicle sales in 2019 are currently below 2011 levels, reflective of depressed business and consumer confidence. Total new vehicle sales for the last 12 months is 49% down from peak levels seen in 2015.   Vehicle sales is a lagging economic indicator and thus tells us little about what to expect going forward, but illustrates the extent of the downturn we have been through thus far.

A total of 926 new vehicles were sold in April, a 1.1% m/m contraction from the 936 vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, 3,291 vehicles have been sold of which 1,582 were passenger vehicles, 1,543 light commercial vehicles, and 166 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales increased by 1.1% m/m to 11,405 new vehicles sold as at the end of April 2019. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend, contracting by 8.2% from the 12,423 new vehicles sold over the comparable period a year ago.

New passenger vehicle sales increased by 10.0% m/m in April, to 464 units. On an annual basis an increase of 29.9% was recorded as April saw an increase in monthly passenger vehicle sales from March for the first time since 1998. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,582 units, reflecting lower cumulative sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 10.8% decline from the year-to-date figure recorded in April 2018. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales rose 2.2% m/m, but continued to slide on an annual basis, contracting 6.9% y/y.

A total of 462 new commercial vehicles were sold in April, contractions of 10.1% m/m and 15.3% y/y. Of the 462 commercial vehicles sold in April, 408 were classified as light vehicles, 16 as medium vehicles and 38 as heavy vehicles. On a year-on-year basis for the month of April light commercial sales rose by 4.3%, medium commercial sales fell by 36.0%, and heavy and extra heavy sales grew by 26.7%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 9.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 2.2% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 4.3% y/y. While medium commercial vehicles have recorded growth in twelve-month cumulative sales over the last seven months, the light and heavy segments of the market continue to see lower volumes sold than in 2018, already a low base. This is an indication that businesses are yet to increase capital deployment in any meaningful way as business confidence remains under pressure.

Volkswagen once again leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 31.6% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota dropped to second place by this measure with 30.3% of the market-share as at the end of April. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford each command around 5.0% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 17.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota, with a strong market-share of 63.3% ytd, commands the light commercial vehicles sales segment. Ford remains in second position in the segment with 9.3% of the market, while Nissan makes up third place with 6.5% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 40.7% ytd of sales, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 31.8% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales continue to point to low consumer and business confidence. Anecdotal evidence, as well as Bidvest Namibia automotive division results over the last two years, show struggling dealerships. After eleven quarters of largely stagnant economic activity in Namibia it is hardly surprising that confidence remains low. At present there are few signs that the business cycle is turning, with a global slowdown providing headwinds to an outlook already weighed down by drought. At present there are few prospects for stimulus as government continues to run large budget deficits, with debt largely funding consumption. One of the few levers we believe is available to government at present is policy clarity and growth friendly policy. Clarity on empowerment and investment policy is crucial in 2019, as well as SOE reform.

A total of 936 new vehicles were sold in March, representing a 24.6% m/m increase from the 751 vehicles sold in February. It should be noted that March vehicle sales have a seasonal effect of being slightly higher due to it being the end of the tax year. Year-to-date, 2,365 vehicles have been sold of which 1,118 were passenger vehicles, 1,135 light commercial vehicles, and 112 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is a 20.8% decline in the total number of new vehicles sold during the first quarter of 2019 when compared to 2018. On a twelve month-cumulative basis, vehicle sales continue to wane with a total of 11,285 new vehicles sold as at March 2019, down 10.3% from the 12,577 sold over the comparable period a year ago, and the lowest since November 2010.

422 New passenger vehicles were sold during March, increasing by 19.2% m/m. From a year-on-year perspective however, March new passenger vehicle sales were 16.8% lower than the 507 units sold in March 2018. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,118, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 20.9% decline from the first quarter of 2018.

A total of 514 new commercial vehicles were sold in March, representing an increase of 29.5% m/m, but a contraction of 14.8% y/y. Of the 514 commercial vehicles sold in March, 483 were classified as light, 15 as medium and 16 as heavy. On an annual basis, light commercial sales fell by 12.8%, medium commercial sales grew by 7.1% while heavy and extra heavy sales have contracted by 54.3%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 11.7% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 13.1% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 6.3% y/y. This is the sixth consecutive month that medium commercial sales have showed growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis.

Toyota retook the lead from Volkswagen in March in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 31.6% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.3% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 5.9% and 5.5% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 67.8% market share, with Ford in second place with a 9.8% market share. Volkswagen and Isuzu claimed 5.3% and 4.5%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2019. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 37.2% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 29.0% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

New vehicle sales remained depressed in March as 12-month cumulative new vehicle sales have declined by 10.3% y/y to 11,285 at the end of March, representing a decline of 50.2% from the peak of 22,664 new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015. Government’s continued commitment to fiscal consolidation does have a direct effect on the demand for new vehicles. Government vehicle expenditure has fallen from N$1.02 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year to N$22.2 million in 2017/18. In his Budget Review Speech last month, finance minister Calle Schlettwein left the revised vehicle budget unchanged at N$11.9 million from the mid-term budget tabled in October last year. N$1.4 million is allocated to the Auditor General’s office for vehicles, N$10.0 million to Health and Social Services and N$500,000 to the Justice ministry. For the 2019/20 year, N$10.0 million is allocated to Health and Social Services for vehicles. These figures dim the prospects for new vehicle sales in the short- to medium-term.