Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 50 new vehicles were sold in April, a 93.4% m/m contraction from the 759 vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, 2,279 vehicles have been sold of which 965 were passenger vehicles, 1,149 light commercial vehicles, and 165 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales continued to dwindle with a total of 9,389 new vehicles sold as at April 2020, down 17.7% from the 11,405 sold over the comparable period a year ago. The dismal new vehicle sales figures were expected seeing as that the Khomas and Erongo regions were on lockdown for the entire month, and the rest of the country was on lockdown for two weeks.

Only 9 new passenger vehicles were sold during April, representing a contraction of 97.2% m/m from the 318 passenger vehicles sold in March. On a year-on-year basis, April new passenger vehicle sales were 98.1% lower than the 464 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 965. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since May 2010, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicles sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 23.1% year-to-date and 16.1% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 41 new commercial vehicles were sold in April, representing a decrease of 90.7% m/m and 91.1% y/y. 39 Light commercial vehicles, 2 medium commercial vehicles, and no heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 19.5% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 15.6% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 14.2% y/y.

Toyota was one of three manufacturers managing to sell passenger vehicles during April and continues to lead the market in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 31.3% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.7% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 7.2% and 5.7% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 58.7% market share, with Nissan in second place with 15.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.6% and 5.4%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.0% of sales year-to-date. Mercedes was also number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 21.9% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

New vehicle sales have been under pressure in recent years as domestic economic conditions have generally been tough. The lockdowns of first the Khomas and Erongo regions, followed by the lockdown of the entire country, has brought vehicle sales to a complete standstill in the last two months. While we do believe that vehicle sales will higher in the coming months than in April, it is unlikely that it will return to the levels seen in recent months and years. Both business and consumer confidence are extremely low at the moment as a result of the impact of the lockdowns. It is unlikely that many businesses and consumers will be in a financial position to purchase new vehicles for the rest of the year.

A total of 759 new vehicles were sold in March, representing a 5.0% m/m decrease from the 799 vehicles sold in February, and a 18.9% y/y decrease from the 936 new vehicles sold in March 2019. Year-to-date, 2,229 vehicles have been sold of which 956 were passenger vehicles, 1,110 light commercial vehicles, and 163 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is a 5.8% decline in the total number of new vehicles sold during the first quarter of 2020 when compared to 2019. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales continued to wane with a total of 10,265 new vehicles sold as at March 2020, down 9.0% from the 11,285 sold over the comparable period a year ago, and the lowest since April 2010.

318 New passenger vehicles were sold during March, declining by 8.4% m/m. On a year-on-year basis new passenger vehicle sales were 24.6% lower than the 422 units sold in March 2019. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 956, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding 15 years, and a 14.5% decline from the first quarter of 2019.

A total of 441 new commercial vehicles were sold in March, representing a contraction of 2.4% m/m and 14.2% y/y. Of the 441 commercial vehicles sold in March 389 were classified as light, 23 as medium and 29 as heavy. On an annual basis, light commercial sales fell by 19.5% y/y, medium commercial sales climbed 53.3% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 81.3% y/y. The increases in medium and heavy commercial sales are however from a low base. On a twelve-month cumulative basis light commercial vehicle sales have declined 13.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicles rose by 17.1% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles rose 25.6% y/y. These high growth figures are again from a very low base.

Toyota continued to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in March, claiming 30.9% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with a 29.0% share. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai at 7.2% and 5.8% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 57.6% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 16.3% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.7% and 5.6%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 31.0% of sales year-to-date. Mercedes was also number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 21.9% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

March new vehicle sales generally have a seasonal effect of being slightly higher due to it being the end of the tax year. This was however not the case in 2020 with new vehicle sales were depressed in March, declining by 9.0% y/y on a twelve-month cumulative basis, to to 10,265 vehicles. It should be noted that the data precedes the 21-day lockdown of the two most economically significant regions and as a result, vehicle sales are expected to be significantly lower in April. Used vehicle sales will similarly be affected by this. Both consumers and businesses are expected to be under considerable financial stress in the short- to medium term as a result of the lockdown, and we thus expect vehicle sales to remain at lower levels in the months to come.

799 New vehicles were sold in February, an increase of 19.1% m/m from the 671 vehicles sold in January, and a 6.4% y/y increase from the 751 new vehicles sold in February 2019. Two months into 2020 and 1470 new vehicles have been sold, of which 638 were passenger vehicles, 721 light commercial vehicles, and 111 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. The first two months of 2019 saw 1,429 new vehicles sold. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 10,442 new vehicles were sold as at February 2020, representing a contraction of 8.9% from the 11,459 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 347 new passenger vehicles were sold during February, increasing by 19.2% from the 291 passenger vehicles sold in January. On a year-on-year basis however, February new passenger vehicle sales were 2.0% lower than the 354 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 638, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding 9 years, and an 8.3% decline from February 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since January 2011, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

A total of 452 new commercial vehicles were sold in February, representing an increase of 18.9% m/m and 13.9% y/y. 386 Light commercial vehicles, 21 medium commercial vehicles, and 45 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales rose 10.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales rose 50.0% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 40.6% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales have declined by 12.4% y/y, medium commercial vehicles rose by 14.2% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles rose 17.1% y/y. While the positive 12-month growth in medium- and heavy commercial vehicle sales is positive news, the growth is from a very low base.

During February, Toyota overtook Volkswagen in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 29.6% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.8% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 7.8% and 6.4% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

On a year-to-date basis Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 57.0% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 16.4% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.6% and 6.2%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 37.1% of sales year-to-date, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.4% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

While the number of new vehicles sold in February is higher than the number sold in the prior two months, the cumultative number of new vehicles sold continues to decline on a rolling 12-month basis, and is trending at the lowest level in ten years. The downward trend in vehicle sales is likely to continue for the rest of the year as there are no indicators that economic conditions will improve substantially any time soon. Historical data indicates that new vehicle sales typically pick-up somewhat in March, however we are of the view that the increase in sales for the month will be relatively small. Recent new vehicle sales figures suggest that vehicle owners are either holding on to the vehicles they already own or purchasing second hand and imported vehicles.