Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

767 New vehicles were sold in June, an increase of 62.8% m/m from the 471 new vehicles sold in May. However, this is a decrease of 21.5% y/y from the 977 new vehicles sold in June 2019. Year-to-date 3,517 vehicles have been sold, of which 1,530 were passenger vehicles, 1,766 were light commercial vehicles, and 221 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a rolling 12-month basis, a total of 8,595 new vehicles were sold as at June 2020, representing a contraction of 24.7% from the 11,412 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

345 New passenger vehicles were sold during June, increasing by 56.8% m/m, although this increase is from a low base. On a year-on-year basis, June’s new passenger vehicle sales were 8.7% lower than the 378 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,530 units, down 38.1% when compared to the number sold in the first half of last year. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 0.9% m/m and 27.3% y/y. Passenger vehicles have made up 43.5% of the total number of new vehicles sold in the first six months of 2020, compared to 46.4% in the same period last year.

A total of 422 new commercial vehicles were sold in June, representing a 68.1% m/m increase, but a 29.5% y/y contraction. The monthly increase is again from a low base. Of the 422 commercial vehicles sold in June, 386 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 12 as medium commercial vehicles and 24 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 24.6% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 6.1% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell by 13.7% y/y. While medium- and heavy commercial vehicles continue to record growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis, the light segment of the market continues to see lower volumes sold than in 2019.

Volkswagen narrowly leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 30.4% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota retained second place with 29.5% of the market share as at the end of June. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 6.5% and 5.6% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota, with a strong market share of 56.4% year-to-date commands the light commercial vehicle sales segment. Nissan remains in the second position in the segment with 13.7% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 10.3% of the year-to-date sales. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 31.7% of sales year-to-date and remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.3% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

June saw the number of new vehicles sales increasing quite substantially on a monthly basis. However, as pointed out earlier in this report, this increase is from a relatively low base as vehicle sales are merely recovering after very low activity during lockdown. In the first half of this year, new vehicle sales are down 33.9% y/y compared to the same period in 2019. We expect new vehicle sales to remain under pressure and do not foresee any substantial increases in the number sold for at least the rest of the year, as economic conditions are expected to remain weak.

A total of 470 new vehicles were sold in May, an 840.0% m/m increase from the 50 vehicles sold in April, but a 55.5% y/y decrease from the 1,055 vehicles sold in May 2019. Year-to-date 2,749 vehicles have been sold, of which 1,184 were passenger vehicles, 1,380 were light commercial vehicles, and 185 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales continued to decline with a total of 8,804 new vehicles sold as at May 2020, down 23.8% from the 11,559 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

219 New passenger vehicles were sold during May, increasing by 2,333.3% m/m. The monthly comparison is somewhat meaningless seeing that only 9 new passenger vehicles were sold in April due to the lockdown restricting dealerships from selling vehicles. On a year-on-year basis May new passenger vehicle sales were 57.2% lower than the 512 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,184, a 43.5% decrease from May last year. On a rolling 12-month basis new passenger vehicle sales were down 63.0% from the peak in April 2015, and down 27.9% y/y.

A total of 251 new commercial vehicles were sold in May, 512.2% more than in April, but 53.8% less than in May 2019. Of the 251 commercial vehicles sold in May, 231 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 10 as medium commercial vehicles and 10 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis light commercial vehicle sales dropped 23.3% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 16.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell by 5.9% y/y.

During the month, Volkswagen retook the lead from Toyota in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Volkswagen claimed 30.2% of the market, followed closely by Toyota with 29.8% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 6.9% and 5.8% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a robust 57.5% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 14.8% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 9.8% and 6.3%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 31.4% of sales year-to-date. Mercedes was also number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

While May’s vehicle sales figure of 470 is considerably higher than that of April’s 50 vehicles, the number of new vehicles sold fell to roughly halve of the number sold a year ago or a quarter of what was sold five years ago. It remains unlikely that new vehicle sales will return to the levels seen in recent months and years as economic conditions are expected to remain dire. The fact that the Erongo region was placed under a further lockdown will continue to weigh down on vehicle sales in June. Furthermore, the revenues of most businesses in the country will be depressed due to the government imposed lockdowns and as a result will not be able to expand/replace their existing vehicle fleets. The tourism sector continues to be affected by the lockdown of the country’s borders is currently sitting with an oversupply of vehicles and will thus not be needing new vehicles in the short- to medium term. During the month the government too announced that they will not be renewing their vehicle fleet for the next five years. For the most part we expect consumers who haven’t lost their jobs or been forced to take a pay cut, and who can still afford to buy vehicles, to either be more prudent with their finances and defer vehicle purchases or to opt for second-hand models while the current economic uncertainty remains.

A total of 50 new vehicles were sold in April, a 93.4% m/m contraction from the 759 vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, 2,279 vehicles have been sold of which 965 were passenger vehicles, 1,149 light commercial vehicles, and 165 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales continued to dwindle with a total of 9,389 new vehicles sold as at April 2020, down 17.7% from the 11,405 sold over the comparable period a year ago. The dismal new vehicle sales figures were expected seeing as that the Khomas and Erongo regions were on lockdown for the entire month, and the rest of the country was on lockdown for two weeks.

Only 9 new passenger vehicles were sold during April, representing a contraction of 97.2% m/m from the 318 passenger vehicles sold in March. On a year-on-year basis, April new passenger vehicle sales were 98.1% lower than the 464 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 965. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since May 2010, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicles sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 23.1% year-to-date and 16.1% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 41 new commercial vehicles were sold in April, representing a decrease of 90.7% m/m and 91.1% y/y. 39 Light commercial vehicles, 2 medium commercial vehicles, and no heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 19.5% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 15.6% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 14.2% y/y.

Toyota was one of three manufacturers managing to sell passenger vehicles during April and continues to lead the market in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 31.3% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.7% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 7.2% and 5.7% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 58.7% market share, with Nissan in second place with 15.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.6% and 5.4%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.0% of sales year-to-date. Mercedes was also number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 21.9% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

New vehicle sales have been under pressure in recent years as domestic economic conditions have generally been tough. The lockdowns of first the Khomas and Erongo regions, followed by the lockdown of the entire country, has brought vehicle sales to a complete standstill in the last two months. While we do believe that vehicle sales will higher in the coming months than in April, it is unlikely that it will return to the levels seen in recent months and years. Both business and consumer confidence are extremely low at the moment as a result of the impact of the lockdowns. It is unlikely that many businesses and consumers will be in a financial position to purchase new vehicles for the rest of the year.