Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

698 new vehicles were sold in November, representing a 24.9% m/m increase from the 559 vehicles sold in October, but a 20.2% y/y decline from the 875 new vehicles sold in November 2019. Year-to-date 6,913 vehicles have been sold of which 2,881 were passenger vehicles, 3,554 were light commercial vehicles, and 478 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 7,627 new vehicles were sold as at 30 November, representing a contraction of 26.8% from the 10,417 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 339 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, an increase of 14.5% m/m, but a decrease of 2.3% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,881, down 32.0% compared to the number of new passenger vehicles sold by November last year. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are down 29.7% y/y at 3,195 units, the lowest level since April 2004, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicles sales reflect a similar picture. 359 New commercial vehicles were sold in November, representing a 36.5% m/m increase, but a year-on-year contraction of 32.0%. 321 light commercial vehicles, 9 medium commercial vehicles, and 29 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 24.5% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 29.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 22.3% y/y, with all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota remains the leader in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold with 28.9% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 25.6%. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.7% and 5.8% of the market respectively. The only other manufacturer that managed to breach the 5% market share mark was Mercedes-Benz with 5.2% of the market leaving the remaining 27.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota also remains the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a dominant 55.9% market share. Nissan and Ford were the only other manufacturers to breach the 10% market share level with 12.7% and 12.2% of the market respectively. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 32.1% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.6% of the market share year-to-date, followed closely by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 21.3% and 17.9% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

Black Friday specials and the recent introduction of 72-month vehicle loans could likely have been the cause for the month-on-month uptick in new vehicle sales in November, however the general trend in new vehicle sales remains negative as every sector recorded lower sales than during the same month last year. The fact that the 12-month cumulative figure is hovering around levels last seen in 2005 is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in. Eroded consumer and business confidence, coupled with government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation as well as a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance means that domestic economic growth (and by extension new vehicle sales) are expected to remain muted for the foreseeable future.

A total of 559 new vehicles were sold in October, representing a 36.1% m/m decline from the 875 vehicles sold in September, and a 42.4% y/y contraction from the 971 new vehicles sold in October 2019. Year-to-date 6,215 vehicles have been sold of which 2,542 were passenger vehicles, 3,233 were light commercial vehicles, and 440 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales continued its downward trend with 7,804 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 27.3% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year, and the lowest since March 2005.

296 new passenger vehicles were sold in October, an increase of 6.1% m/m, but contracting by 16.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,542 units, down 34.6% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in October 2019. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 30.4% y/y as the number of passenger vehicles sold continued to decline. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2004 at 3,203 units, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Following the strong uptick in commercial vehicle sales in September when 596 units were sold, new commercial vehicle sales fell to 263 in October, contracting by 55.9% m/m and 57.3% y/y. Of the 263 commercial vehicles sold, 217 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 18 as medium commercial vehicles, and 28 as heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 25.3% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 19.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 24.7% y/y, with all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 28.4% of the segment sales year-to-date, followed closely by Volkswagen with 26.1% of the market share. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.7% and 5.9% of the market respectively, leaving the remaining 32.8% of the market to other brands.

Toyota retains a strong year-to-date market share of 56.5% and remains the market leader in the light commercial vehicle segment. Nissan remains in the second position in the segment with 12.6% of the market, while Ford makes up third place with 11.6% of the year-to-date sales. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.7% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.8% of the market share year-to-date, closely followed by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 19.7% and 17.6% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

Following the relatively strong vehicle sales recorded in September, new vehicle sales reverted to the levels seen in prior months. The month of October has historically been one of the stronger months regarding new vehicle sales, but October 2020’s sales of 559 units lagged the average number of vehicles sold during the month by 682 vehicles. A slowdown in government spending in real terms, coupled with a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance has resulted in a stagnant economy and as a result erosion of consumer and business confidence. This stagnation has been further intensified by strict lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of Covid-19.

While it is still early days, it does seem like the recently introduced 72-month vehicle loans have had a small positive impact on new passenger vehicle sales after two consecutive months of growth in this segment, albeit off a low base. However, as it is unlikely that economic conditions will improve significantly in the short- to medium-term, we expect the demand for new vehicles to remain low.

874 New vehicles were sold in September, an increase of 46.9% m/m from the 595 vehicles sold in August, and an 8.4% y/y increase from the 806 new vehicles sold in September 2019. September is only the second month this year where new vehicle sales topped sales in 2019 on a year-on-year basis. Year-to-date 5,655 vehicles have been sold of which 2,245 were passenger vehicles, 3,016 were light commercial vehicles, and 394 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued to trend downward with 8,215 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 23.1% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year.

A total of 278 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, representing a 34.3% m/m increase but a 13.1% y/y contraction. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,245 units, down 36.5% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in September 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since June 2004 at 3,261 units, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales. Consumer confidence has been plagued by poor economic conditions since 2016 and this has been further impacted by job losses and pay cuts this year brought on by Covid related lockdowns.  

The best month of 2020 in commercial vehicles sales thus far was recorded in September with 596 units sold. This is a 53.6% m/m, and 22.6% y/y increase. 537 Light commercial vehicles, 15 medium commercial vehicles, and 44 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis light commercial vehicle are down 18% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 14.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 17.1% y/y, all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota remains the leader in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold with 28.4% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 26.9%. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.6% and 6.0% of the market respectively. No other manufacturer managed to breach the 5% market-share mark.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a dominant 59.1% market share. Nissan and Ford were the only other manufacturers to breach the 10% market share level with 11.8% and 10.8% of the market respectively. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.3% of sales year-to-date, closely followed by Hino with 27.3% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.1% of the market share year-to-date, closely followed by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 19.1% and 17.6% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

September marks only the second month of 2020 where monthly new vehicle sales topped sales from the corresponding month in 2019, the other being February. The general trend in new vehicle sales remains negative as can be expected in an economy performing poorly. Consumers have been under pressure for a number of years now as the economy started to cool in 2015 after five years of rapid growth between 2010 and 2015. A slowdown in government spending in real terms, coupled with a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance have resulted in a stagnant economy and as a result erosion of consumer and business confidence. This stagnation has been further exacerbated by lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of Covid 19.

A multitude of obstacles thus weigh on a return to growth for the Namibian economy, not least of which is the poor policy overhang. We thus expect the Namibian economy to remain fragile for the foreseeable future, and we expect this to be reflected in vehicle sales, building plan approvals as well as PSCE and other high frequency indicators.