Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

874 New vehicles were sold in September, an increase of 46.9% m/m from the 595 vehicles sold in August, and an 8.4% y/y increase from the 806 new vehicles sold in September 2019. September is only the second month this year where new vehicle sales topped sales in 2019 on a year-on-year basis. Year-to-date 5,655 vehicles have been sold of which 2,245 were passenger vehicles, 3,016 were light commercial vehicles, and 394 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued to trend downward with 8,215 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 23.1% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year.

A total of 278 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, representing a 34.3% m/m increase but a 13.1% y/y contraction. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,245 units, down 36.5% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in September 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since June 2004 at 3,261 units, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales. Consumer confidence has been plagued by poor economic conditions since 2016 and this has been further impacted by job losses and pay cuts this year brought on by Covid related lockdowns.  

The best month of 2020 in commercial vehicles sales thus far was recorded in September with 596 units sold. This is a 53.6% m/m, and 22.6% y/y increase. 537 Light commercial vehicles, 15 medium commercial vehicles, and 44 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis light commercial vehicle are down 18% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 14.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 17.1% y/y, all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota remains the leader in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold with 28.4% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 26.9%. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.6% and 6.0% of the market respectively. No other manufacturer managed to breach the 5% market-share mark.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a dominant 59.1% market share. Nissan and Ford were the only other manufacturers to breach the 10% market share level with 11.8% and 10.8% of the market respectively. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.3% of sales year-to-date, closely followed by Hino with 27.3% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.1% of the market share year-to-date, closely followed by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 19.1% and 17.6% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

September marks only the second month of 2020 where monthly new vehicle sales topped sales from the corresponding month in 2019, the other being February. The general trend in new vehicle sales remains negative as can be expected in an economy performing poorly. Consumers have been under pressure for a number of years now as the economy started to cool in 2015 after five years of rapid growth between 2010 and 2015. A slowdown in government spending in real terms, coupled with a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance have resulted in a stagnant economy and as a result erosion of consumer and business confidence. This stagnation has been further exacerbated by lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of Covid 19.

A multitude of obstacles thus weigh on a return to growth for the Namibian economy, not least of which is the poor policy overhang. We thus expect the Namibian economy to remain fragile for the foreseeable future, and we expect this to be reflected in vehicle sales, building plan approvals as well as PSCE and other high frequency indicators.

593 New vehicles were sold in August, an 11.0% m/m contraction from the 666 vehicles sold in July, and a 26.6% y/y decline from the 808 new vehicles sold in August 2019. Year-to-date 4,776 vehicles have been sold of which 1,962 were passenger vehicles, 2,479 were light commercial vehicles, and 218 were were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend with 8,142 new vehicles sold over the last twelve months, a 25.0% y/y contraction from the corresponding period last year.

A total of 205 new passenger vehicles were sold during August, representing a 9.7% m/m and 43.1% y/y contraction. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,962 units, down 39.0% when compared to the year-to-date figure recorded in August 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since July 2004, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicles sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 26.4% year-to-date and 21.7% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. 388 New commercial vehicles were sold in August, a contraction of 11.6% m/m and 13.4% y/y. 323 Light commercial vehicles, 21 medium commercial vehicles, and 44 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped by 23.1% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 11.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 10.2% y/y. 

During the month, Toyota retook the lead from Volkswagen in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 28.7% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.3% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 6.5% and 6.0% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a robust 57.2% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 12.7% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 10.9% and 7.5%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 29.1% of sales year-to-date. Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 24.3% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The new vehicle sales figures show how badly economic activity has been hampered since the lockdowns were imposed. New vehicle sales are down considerably when compared to 2019, which by itself was a bad year for vehicle sales. We expect the current depressed trend in new vehicle sales to remain depressed for the medium term as there are currently very few catalysts for economic growth. It is unlikely that many businesses and consumers will be in a financial position to purchase new vehicles for the rest of the year.

A total of 666 new vehicles were sold in July, representing a 13.2% m/m decrease from the 767 new vehicles sold in June, and a 26.3% y/y decline from the 904 new vehicles sold in July 2019. Year-to-date 4,182 vehicles have been sold of which 1,757 were passenger vehicles, 2,156 were light commercial vehicles, and 270 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is 32.8% lower than the total number of new vehicles sold during the same period last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales continued to dwindle with a total of 8,357 new vehicle sold as at July 2020, down 24.8% from the 11,119 sold over the comparable period a year ago, and the lowest since June 2005.

227 New passenger vehicles were sold during July, declining by 34.2% m/m. On a year-on-year basis new passenger vehicle sales were 40.6% lower than the 382 units sold in July 2019. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,757, down 38.4% when compared to the number sold during the same period last year. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales fell 4.3% m/m and 27.1% y/y. The demand for new passenger vehicles thus remains very low on the back of the weak economic climate.

A total of 439 new commercial vehicles were sold in July, representing a 4.0% m/m increase, but a 15.9% y/y contraction. This has been the third consecutive month of increases in new commercial vehicle sales which is somewhat encouraging, although the previous two increases were from a low base and the sales figures are still a far cry from those seen five to six years ago. Of the 439 commercial vehicles sold in July, 390 were classified as light commercial vehicles, 14 as medium commercial vehicles and 35 as heavy or extra heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 24.1% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 6.3%, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 19.9% y/y. This is the first time since September 2018 that all three these categories have recorded a decrease on a twelve-month cumulative basis.

Volkswagen continues to narrowly lead the passenger vehicle sales segment with 29.5% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota retained second place with 29.2% of the market share as at the end of July. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 6.4% and 5.6% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a dominant 56.4% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 13.4% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 10.6% and 7.7%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2020. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 31.3% of sales year-to-date. Mercedes was also number one in the heavy and extra-heavy vehicle segment with 21.3% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

As expected, the demand for new vehicles remained sluggish in July with only 666 new vehicles sold during the month. New vehicle sales figures are currently trending at levels last seen in 2005. The figures suggest that that vehicle owners are either holding on to the vehicles they already own or are purchasing second hand and imported vehicles. We expect this to remain the case for the medium term as there is currently little indication that economic conditions will improve any time soon. On a rolling 12-month basis new vehicle sales are down 63.1% from the peak in April 2015, and down 24.8% y/y.