Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 694 new vehicles were sold in January, which is 6 cars fewer than were sold in December, but represents a 3.3% y/y increase from the 672 new vehicles sold in January 2020. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 7,636 new vehicles were sold up to the end of January 2021, representing a contraction of 26.5% from the 10,395 new vehicles sold over the same 12 month period a year ago. 2021 is thus off to a slightly better start than January 2020, however, new vehicle sales remain sluggish.

355 new passenger vehicles were sold during January, an increase of 7.6% m/m from the 330 passenger vehicles sold in December, and 21.6% higher y/y from the 292 new passenger vehicles sold in January 2020. On a rolling 12-month basis, new passenger vehicle sales rose 2.0% m/m, but are down 27.2% y/y at the end of January. 12-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales were down 66.7% from the peak in April 2015.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 339 units in January, representing a contraction of 8.4% m/m and 10.8% y/y. During the month 301 light commercial vehicles, 9 medium commercial vehicles, and 29 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales fell by 10.1% y/y, medium commercial vehicle dropped by 35.7% y/y, and heavy and extra heavy vehicle sales declined by 6.5% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales contracted by 25.3% y/y, medium commercial vehicles declined by 37.2% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell by 27.3% y/y.

Volkswagen started the year off on a strong foot with a 41.4% market share of new passenger vehicles sold, followed by Toyota with a 25.1% market share. They were followed by Kia and Mercedes who each had a 6.5% market share, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota meanwhile started the year off with a solid grip on the light commercial vehicle market with a 55.1% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 13.3% market share. Ford and Volkswagen claimed 11.3% and 5.0% of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold during the month, respectively. Iveco led the medium commercial vehicle category with 33.3% of sales, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 27.6% of the market share during the month.

The Bottom Line

New passenger vehicle sales started the year off stronger than in 2020, with passenger vehicle sales increasing by 21.6% y/y. This uptick in sales did not pass through to commercial vehicle sales which had a poor start and contracted by 10.8% y/y. While new vehicle sales in January were higher than the first month of the past two years, it remains considerably lower than the numbers recorded between 2012 and 2016. The likelihood of a recovery in 2021 to the levels witnessed during that period seems very low currently. We expect businesses to hold on to their current fleets for as long as possible and for consumers to mostly stick to the pre-owned market, seeing that there are very few economic growth prospects at present.

700 New vehicles were sold in December, 1 more than the upward revised 699 in November, but a 2.0% y/y decrease from the 714 new vehicles sold in December 2019. Year-to-date 7,614 vehicles have been sold, a 26.8% contraction from December last year and the lowest annual vehicle sales figure since 2004. Of the 7,614 new vehicles sold during the year, 3,212 were passenger vehicles, 3,869 were light commercial vehicles, and 533 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

A total of 330 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, representing a 2.9% m/m contraction, but a 5.1% y/y increase. 3,212 passenger vehicles were sold in 2020, a 29.4% decline from 2019 and lower annual sales than the preceding 16 years. Passenger vehicle sales made up 42.2% of the total number of new vehicles sold during 2020 broadly in line with the trend over the last 6 years.

370 new commercial vehicles were sold in December, an increase of 3.1% m/m, but a 7.5% y/y contraction. During the month 315 light commercial vehicles, 13 medium commercial vehicles, and 42 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales have declined by 6.0%, medium commercial vehicles fell 38.1% and heavy and extra heavy vehicles sales contracted 4.5%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 24.2% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 35.3% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 25.4%.

Toyota lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2020, claiming 28.6% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 25.5% share. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai at 6.8% and 5.8%, respectively. The only other manufacturer that managed to breach the 5% market share mark was Mercedes-Benz with 5.3% of the market, leaving the remaining 27.9% of the market to other brands.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space in 2020 with 56.0% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 12.9% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.3% and 6.7% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Mercedes lead the medium commercial category with 32.0% of sales while Volvo Trucks was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 21.6% of the market share during the year.

The Bottom Line

2020 was a dismal year for vehicle sales. The cumulative number of new vehicle sales for the year amounted to 7,614, a decline of 26.8% from the cumulative number of vehicles sold in 2019 and a 66.4% contraction from the peak of 22,664 new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015 on a cumulative 12-month basis. The year-to-date sales graph at the top of this report shows how severely the new vehicle industry was impacted by the lockdown in April. The recovery since then has been slow and overall new vehicle sales have still not returned to the already low levels of 2019. The introduction of the longer-dated 72-month vehicle loans has had a small positive impact on new passenger vehicle sales, but not enough to offset the damage done by lockdowns. With there being few signs that 2021 will see significant economic growth, we expect new vehicle sales to remain under pressure.

698 new vehicles were sold in November, representing a 24.9% m/m increase from the 559 vehicles sold in October, but a 20.2% y/y decline from the 875 new vehicles sold in November 2019. Year-to-date 6,913 vehicles have been sold of which 2,881 were passenger vehicles, 3,554 were light commercial vehicles, and 478 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 7,627 new vehicles were sold as at 30 November, representing a contraction of 26.8% from the 10,417 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 339 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, an increase of 14.5% m/m, but a decrease of 2.3% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 2,881, down 32.0% compared to the number of new passenger vehicles sold by November last year. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are down 29.7% y/y at 3,195 units, the lowest level since April 2004, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicles sales reflect a similar picture. 359 New commercial vehicles were sold in November, representing a 36.5% m/m increase, but a year-on-year contraction of 32.0%. 321 light commercial vehicles, 9 medium commercial vehicles, and 29 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 24.5% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales fell 29.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 22.3% y/y, with all measures remaining on a downward trajectory on an annual basis.

Toyota remains the leader in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold with 28.9% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 25.6%. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the market with Kia and Hyundai following with 6.7% and 5.8% of the market respectively. The only other manufacturer that managed to breach the 5% market share mark was Mercedes-Benz with 5.2% of the market leaving the remaining 27.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota also remains the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a dominant 55.9% market share. Nissan and Ford were the only other manufacturers to breach the 10% market share level with 12.7% and 12.2% of the market respectively. Mercedes leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 32.1% of the market. Scania remained number one in the competitive heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 22.6% of the market share year-to-date, followed closely by Volvo Trucks and Mercedes with 21.3% and 17.9% of the market respectively.

The Bottom Line

Black Friday specials and the recent introduction of 72-month vehicle loans could likely have been the cause for the month-on-month uptick in new vehicle sales in November, however the general trend in new vehicle sales remains negative as every sector recorded lower sales than during the same month last year. The fact that the 12-month cumulative figure is hovering around levels last seen in 2005 is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in. Eroded consumer and business confidence, coupled with government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation as well as a halt in foreign direct investment brought on by poor policy guidance means that domestic economic growth (and by extension new vehicle sales) are expected to remain muted for the foreseeable future.