Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

PSCE – June 2020

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Overall

Total credit extended to the private sector (PSCE) increased by N$408.0 million or 0.40% m/m in June, bringing the cumulative credit outstanding to N$102.69 billion. On a year-on-year basis, private sector credit increased by 2.5%y/y in June, compared to 1.8% y/y in May. Although a slight uptick from the previous month, this represents the second-lowest level of annual growth on our records dating back to 2002. On a rolling 12-month basis, N$2.457 billion worth of credit was extended to the private sector. Of this cumulative issuance, individuals took up N$4.402 billion, while corporates decreased their borrowings by N$1.598 billion and the non-resident private sector paid back N$346.92 million of total outstanding loans and advances.

Credit Extension to Individuals

Growth in credit extended to individuals ticked up to 8.1% y/y from the 5.2% y/y in May. On a monthly basis, household credit increased by 0.3%. The increase was underpinned by strong mortgage growth of 0.4% m/m and 7.8% y/y, which could be indicative of a slight revival in property transactions. Instalment credit and leasing transactions (which have now been combined as a category by the BoN), remained flat m/m and contracted by 5.8% y/y as vehicle sales remain low, contracting by 24.7% y/y on a 12-month cumulative basis.

Overdraft facilities extended to individuals have displayed a sharp jump, increasing by 3.7% m/m and 22.4% y/y, while other loans and advances (or OLA, which is made up of credit card debt, personal and term loans) fell by 2.1% m/m and 17.7% y/y. The heightened uptake of short-term personal debt and overdrafts is a sign of a stretched consumer, many of whom will have been negatively impacted by the effect of the pandemic and resultant lockdowns.

Credit Extension to Corporates

Credit extended to corporates grew by 0.8% m/m, but contracted by 3.6% y/y in June. This is the second consecutive month of year-on-year contraction, following the 1.7% y/y decline in May. This is quite a worrying trend, as corporate investments in the economy continue to slow as economic activity remains muted and corporates aim to decrease leverage where possible. Annual credit growth was negative for all corporate subcategories except for other loans and advances, which grew by 8.1% y/y. Overdraft facilities extended to corporates increased by 3.7% m/m but declined by 3.1% y/y. The contraction in instalment credit continued unabated in June, declining by 0.3% m/m and 12.9% y/y. Mortgage loans extended to corporates contracted by 2.7% m/m and 13.7% y/y.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The average liquidity position of commercial banks declined slightly in June, decreasing by N$232.1 million to an average of N$3.672 billion. However, towards the end of the month, the liquidity position dropped down to N$1.613 billion while repos outstanding picked up from zero to N$449.7 million. The BoN ascribed the lower liquidity position due to corporate tax payments.

Reserves and Money Supply

Broad money supply rose by N$15.85 billion or 14.7% y/y in June, as per the BoN’s latest monetary statistics release. Foreign reserve balances declined by 5.9% m/m or N$1.984 billion to N$31.76 billion in June. According to the BoN, the decline is due to government payments as a result of efforts to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with the redemption of the JSE bond.

Outlook

Private sector credit extension remains subdued at the end of June, ticking up slightly to 2.5% y/y from 1.8% y/y in May. Rolling 12-month issuance has ticked up slightly to N$2.46 billion. However, cumulative 12-month private sector credit issuance is still down 63.1% from the N$6.65 billion figure as at June 2019. Most of the growth has been from mortgages to individuals where the 12-month cumulative issuance stands at N$2.93 billion, which may indicate some revival of activity in the Namibian property market. However, corporates have been reducing their debt over the last 12 months and have seen N$1.60 billion in repayments as businesses de-risk and deliver their operations. Despite Namibian interest rates now being at their lowest levels yet, and expectations are for possibly one more rate cut, this has not seemed to stimulated lending much. Economic activity remains muted and the outlook for the next two years remains extremely uncertain as the global effect of the pandemic and lockdowns still have to run their course. As a result, we do not expect to see a strong recovery in credit extension in the medium term.

Building Plans – June 2020

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A total of 270 building plans were approved in June by the City of Windhoek, 159 more than in May. In value terms, approvals increased by N$78.9 million to N$173.7 million, an 83.2% m/m increase from May. A total of 289 completions to the value of N$192.1 million were recorded in June. Year-to-date 876 plans have been approved, 89 fewer than the 965 plans approved over the same period last year. The year-to-date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$825.2 million, which is 6.8% lower than during the first half of 2019. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,943 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.93 billion, equal in value terms compared to the same period in 2019.

The majority of the number of building plan approvals were made up of additions to properties. For the month of June, 190 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$96.2 million. Year-to-date 689 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$329.8 million, falling by 9.3% y/y in terms of number of approvals and 9.0% y/y in terms of value of additions. 203 additions to properties worth N$95.7 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 76 approvals registered in June, 48 more than in May. In value terms, N$72.3 million worth of residential units were approved in June, an increase of 112% m/m and 321.5% y/y. In the first half of 2020, 159 new residential units were approved worth N$243.3 million, representing a 14.1% y/y decrease in number and 28.1% y/y decrease in value. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of additions approved has decreased by 31.3% y/y as well as by 15.4% y/y in value terms. 84 new residential units worth N$93.9 million were completed during the month.

4 new commercial units valued at N$5.3 million were approved in June, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 28, worth a total of N$252.2 million. This is 40.0% up in number terms from June last year and 36.4% y/y in value terms. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have risen to 55 units worth N$643.0 million, compared to 44 units worth N$522.3 million during the corresponding period a year ago. 2 commercial and industrial units worth N$2.5 million were completed during June.

The number of both building plan approvals and completions came in slightly above our expectations during the month and this is somewhat encouraging. This does however not indicate that there will be a significant increase in construction activity in the coming months. City of Windhoek’s data shows that the average waiting period from submission to approval was 118 days, meaning that most of the submissions were done before the lockdown period. It thus remains to be seen how many of these approvals will result in actual building activity as both businesses and consumers are still recovering from the impact of the lockdowns and are unlikely to still be in the financial position to go ahead with these building projects.

Building Plans – May 2020

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A total of 111 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in May, which is 58 fewer than the 169 approvals in March. In value terms, approvals declined by N$47.6 million to N$94.8 million, a 33.4% decrease from March. No building plans were approved or completed during April. A total of 208 building plans were completed during the month with a value of N$103.7 million. Year-to-date, N$651.5 million worth of building plans have been approved, 21.0% less in value than during the corresponding period in 2019. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,817 building plans have been approved worth approximately N$1.82 billion, 9.5% lower in value terms than cumulative approvals in May 2019.

83 additions to properties were approved in May with a value of N$60.7 million, an increase of 41.5% in terms of value from the additions approved in March and 78.0% y/y higher than May 2019. Year-to-date 499 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$233.6 million, a decrease of 22.4% y/y in number and a decrease of 30.1% y/y in value terms. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of additions approved has declined by 9.8% y/y and 17.1% y/y in value terms. During the month 161 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$53.9 million.

New residential units accounted for 28 of the approvals registered in May, 18 more than in March, but 14 fewer than in May 2019. In value terms, N$34.1 million worth of residential units were approved in May, up 225.1% m/m (from March), but down 25.7% y/y. Year-to-date residential unit approvals have dropped by 49.1% y/y in number terms and 46.7% in value. The 12-month cumulative residential approvals paint a similar picture, recording a 46.1% y/y decrease in number of approvals and 28.0% y/y decrease in value. As building plan approvals are a leading indicator it points to diminishing construction activity going forward, albeit in the residential space. 46 new residential units worth N$49.8 million were completed during the month.

For the first time since July 2018 there were no approvals for commercial and industrial building plans (excluding the lockdown in April). The lack of approvals in May is somewhat unsurprising given that businesses were severely hit by the lockdown with few financially able to invest in capital investment projects. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals has increased by 36.6% y/y in May to 56 units, worth approximately N$652.9 million, an increase of 27.0% in value terms over the prior 12-month period. One commercial and industrial unit worth N$30,000 was completed during May.

Building plan approvals were unsurprisingly low in May as the country’s lockdown restrictions were somewhat lifted. Consumers and businesses have both been adversely affected by the lockdown with few still financially able to invest in capital expansion projects.