Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

Building Plans – February 2018

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A total of 134 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in February. This is a decline in the number of plans approved on a monthly basis when compared to the 153 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$78 million, a significant decrease of N$191.3 million compared to last month. 214 Buildings with a value of N$60.1 million were completed during February. The year to date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$347.2 million, 19.9% higher than the corresponding period in 2017. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,979 building plans were approved, an increase of 16.8%, worth approximately N$2.25 billion.

The largest portion of building plan approvals was once again made up of additions to properties, from both a number and value perspective. Year to date 237 additions to properties were approved with a value of NS273.3 million, 65.0% more in value terms, and 51 more than the number of additions observed in the corresponding period in 2017.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to building plans approved with 41 residential units approved year-to-date, four more than the corresponding period in 2017. However, in monetary terms, N$56.3 million worth of residential plans were approved, 31.8% lower than the first two months of 2017.

The number of new commercial units approved so far in 2018 amounted to 9, valued at N$17.6 million. This compares to 8 units valued at N$41.5 million approved over the same period in 2017. On average over the last 20 years, 9.8 commercial units valued at N$52.2 million were approved in the first two months of the year (this figure is not inflation adjusted).

From a 12-month cumulative perspective, 1,979 building plans have been approved by February, an increase of 16.8% when compared to the corresponding period in 2017. This increase is positive news, as building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and implies that the Namibian economy is starting to show signs of recovery. The recent announcement by Moody’s to keep South Africa’s credit rating at investment grade has provided the South African Reserve Bank with space to reduce interest rates. The SARB’s 28 March MPC meeting saw the first rate cut of the year with the possibility of further cuts as the year progresses. This lower cost of debt will bring some relief to businesses and consumers alike.

NCPI – February 2018

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The Namibian annual inflation rate decreased slightly to 3.5% y/y in February following the 3.6% y/y increase in prices recorded in January. Prices increased by 0.1% m/m. On a year on year basis, overall prices in four of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in February, while five categories recorded slower rates of inflation and three categories remained unchanged. Prices for goods increased by 2.9% y/y while prices for services increased by 4.4% y/y, with both rates unchanged from January.

The largest contributor to annual inflation remains housing and utilities due to its large weighting in the basket. The category posted inflation of 3.2% y/y, which is marginally lower than the 3.6% y/y increase in prices in January. The main cause for this slightly slower increase was the electricity, gas and other fuels subcategory which recorded a lower rate of inflation of 5.7% compared to the 8.5% registered in January. On a m/m basis, prices in this subcategory contracted by 1.2%. The rental payments for dwellings subcategory remained unchanged m/m, while the regular maintenance and repair of dwellings increased 0.6% m/m.

Transport, serving as the third largest basket category with a weighting of about 14%, accounted for 0.8% of annual inflation in February. Transport prices increased by 6.6% y/y and 0.6% m/m. The purchase of vehicles subcategory saw price increases of 8.2% y/y and an increase of 2.0% m/m. The cost of operation of personal transport equipment saw an increase of 7.3% y/y. Oil prices have dropped 4.7% during February reaching US$65 a barrel at the end of the month. As a result, the Ministry of Mines and Energy confirmed that fuel pump prices for February would remain unchanged for a third consecutive month.

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices rose by 4.4% y/y and 0.5% y/y. Alcohol prices remain the driver of the increase in this basket category which increased by 4.8% y/y and 0.6% m/m. Tobacco prices increased at a slightly slower rate at 2.9% y/y.

Namibian annual inflation of 3.5% y/y for February remains below that of South Africa. South African inflation has remained well confined within the SARB’s target band and will most likely report February data still within that range. If the currency remains strong and stable, inflation could come down further in the coming months. The rand could be volatile should the ratings agency Moody’s announce a downgrade in South Africa’s sovereign debt on 23 March.

New Vehicle Sales – February 2018

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A total of 1,039 new vehicles were sold in February, which represents an 18.1% m/m increase from the 881 sold in January. This is however 10.0% lower than the 1,155 new vehicles sold in February 2017. Two months into 2018, 1,919 new vehicles have been sold of which 939 were passenger vehicles, 915 light commercial and 65 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is a 6.3% decline in the total number of new vehicles sold during the first two months of 2018 when compared to 2017. From a rolling 12-month basis the statistics look even worse, a total of 13,071 new vehicles were sold as at February 2018 representing a contraction of 17.7% from the 15,873 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total 513 new passenger vehicles were sold during February, taking cue from January’s month on month improvement and increasing by 20.4% m/m. From a year on year perspective however, February 2018 new vehicle sales were 15 units lower than the 528 sold a year ago. The rolling 12-month vehicles sales continue to reflect weakness in the number of passenger vehicles sold, declining 16.3% as at February 2018. For the past 12 months, passenger vehicles have, on average, made up 43.0% of the total number of new vehicles sold.

526 Commercial vehicles were sold in February, representing a 15.9% m/m and 16.1% y/y contraction. 488 light commercial vehicles, 19 medium commercial vehicles, and 19 heavy commercial vehicles were sold in February. On a year on year basis light commercial sales have declined by 15.4%, medium commercial sales contracted 5.0% and heavy and extra heavy sales have declined by a hefty 36.7%.

Year to date Toyota and Volkswagen continue to hold their market share in the passenger vehicle market based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 37.0% and 27.0% of the market respectively. They were followed by Mercedes at 5.2% and Ford at 5.0%, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 58.0% market share with Nissan in second place with a 14.0% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 7.8% and 6.6%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold so far in 2018, swapping places they held for the same period in 2017. In the heavy category, Hino and Mercedes started have thus far sold 7 heavy or extra heavy vehicles each representing 22.0% of the number of heavy commercial vehicles sold this year.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative new vehicle sales continue its downward trend in February, the reduction in government spending does have a direct effect on the demand for new vehicles. Government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation in the current recessionary environment dims prospects for new vehicle sales in 2018. Individuals are purchasing almost as many units as corporates and this is worrying in that corporates are not investing in capital goods, which is an indication of the weakened business confidence carried forward from 2017. Tighter credit controls introduced in March 2017 have limited demand for vehicle finance. Consumers currently account for almost 90% of the private sector credit issuance and are heavily indebted. Given that individuals make up almost half of the total vehicles purchased and with corporates buying less and less vehicles, the slowdown in new vehicle sales is very likely to continue well into 2018.