Building Plans – March 2018

A total of 129 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in March. This is a slight decline in the number of plans approved on a monthly basis when compared to the 134 building plans approved in February. In value terms however, approvals increased slightly by N$4.4 million to N$82.4 million in March. 91 Buildings with a value of N$100.5 million were completed during March. The year-to-date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$429.7 million, 9.4% higher than the corresponding period in 2017. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,916 building plans building plans were approved, an increase of 10.1% y/y, worth approximately N$2.23 billion, an increase of 21.4% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

Additions to properties made up 106 approvals out of the total 129 approved building plans recorded in March. Year-to-date 343 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$324 million, rising 46.5% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 60 units approved year-to-date, 14 less than the corresponding period in 2017. In monetary terms, N$80.8 million worth of residential plans were approved year-to-date, 37.3% lower than the first quarter of 2017.

The number of new commercial units approved in 2018 amounted to 13, valued at N$24.9 million. This compares to 9 units valued at N$42.7 million approved over the same period in 2017. On average over the last 20 years, 14.8 commercial units valued at N$83.0 million were approved in the first quarter of the year (this value is not inflation adjusted).

From a 12-month cumulative perspective, 1,916 building plans have been approved by March, an increase of 10.8% when compared to the corresponding period in 2017. This increase is positive news as it signals an increase in private sector construction activity. The Bank of Namibia announced last week that the MPC has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.75%, thus not following the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points. The domestic economy continues to languish and monetary easing was expected as a measure to stimulate the economy. A decrease in the level of international reserves determined the MPC decision at the end of the day. This decision means that consumers and businesses are not provided with slight cost of debt relief and that it is not more attractive for businesses to acquire the debt finance needed to expand and invest in capital projects.

Building Plans – February 2018

A total of 134 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in February. This is a decline in the number of plans approved on a monthly basis when compared to the 153 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$78 million, a significant decrease of N$191.3 million compared to last month. 214 Buildings with a value of N$60.1 million were completed during February. The year to date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$347.2 million, 19.9% higher than the corresponding period in 2017. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,979 building plans were approved, an increase of 16.8%, worth approximately N$2.25 billion.

The largest portion of building plan approvals was once again made up of additions to properties, from both a number and value perspective. Year to date 237 additions to properties were approved with a value of NS273.3 million, 65.0% more in value terms, and 51 more than the number of additions observed in the corresponding period in 2017.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to building plans approved with 41 residential units approved year-to-date, four more than the corresponding period in 2017. However, in monetary terms, N$56.3 million worth of residential plans were approved, 31.8% lower than the first two months of 2017.

The number of new commercial units approved so far in 2018 amounted to 9, valued at N$17.6 million. This compares to 8 units valued at N$41.5 million approved over the same period in 2017. On average over the last 20 years, 9.8 commercial units valued at N$52.2 million were approved in the first two months of the year (this figure is not inflation adjusted).

From a 12-month cumulative perspective, 1,979 building plans have been approved by February, an increase of 16.8% when compared to the corresponding period in 2017. This increase is positive news, as building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and implies that the Namibian economy is starting to show signs of recovery. The recent announcement by Moody’s to keep South Africa’s credit rating at investment grade has provided the South African Reserve Bank with space to reduce interest rates. The SARB’s 28 March MPC meeting saw the first rate cut of the year with the possibility of further cuts as the year progresses. This lower cost of debt will bring some relief to businesses and consumers alike.

Building Plans – January 2018

A total of 153 building plans were approved in January, representing a 32% m/m increase from the 116 building plans approved in December. In value terms, approvals increased by N$170 million from December’s N$100 million to N$269 million in January. January 2018 is getting off to a slower start in terms of the 153 plans approved, compared to January 2017 in which 171 building plans got the nod. In value terms however, January 2018 fared slightly better than January 2017, approving N$10 million more plans than the N$259 million approved in January 2017.  For completions, the y/y statistic paint a rather skewed picture given that the increases are calculated off a rather low base. Looking from a rolling 12-month perspective, a 50% increase in the number of completions is more reflective of the state of building plan completions which equates to 640 worth N$674 million.

Additions to existing properties made up the largest portion of the total building plan approvals in terms of both number and value. For the month of January 129 building plans were approved worth N$233 million, 49% more in value terms than in January 2017, although the number of plans approved dropped by almost 10%.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total building plans approved in January. Approvals for new residential units for January 2018 were 32% lower than they were in January 2017. 17 new units worth N$25 million were approved in January 2018, representing a 60% decline from the N$62 million approved in the first month of 2017.

The number of new commercial units approved in January amounted to 7, valued at N$12 milion. Almost the same number of approvals in January 2017 were worth N$40 million. On a rolling 12-month cumulative basis, the number of approvals contracted by 35% y/y, a trend that has been on the decline since March 2016.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved ticked up slightly in January with a 4.6% y/y increase. A total 1,903 building plans to the value of N$ 2.2 billion were approved and represents an increase in value terms of 4.7% y/y. The number of building plans approved, on a cumulative 12-month basis, has been on the decline for the greater part of 2017. Depressed consumer and business confidence are pronounced by economic indicators such as building plans statistics. Consumers and institutions are currently under pressure and this is further amplified by the slowdown in the extension of credit to the private sector. There is optimism that rests squarely on interest rates that might offer some respite to the consumers and corporates alike. Inflation has moderated well within the SARB’s target band and the new political landscape provides for greater market sentiment and belief that SA will not be downgraded by Moody’s. Coupled with the need to kickstart a much-desired economic recovery might just set the scene for interest rates to be cut in SA and thus affording BoN the opportunity to follow suit.