Building Plans – May 2019

A total of 159 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in May, 11 less than in April. N$81.3 million worth of plans were approved in May as opposed to N$169.0 million in April. A total of 71 building plans were completed during the month with a value of N$142.5 million. Year-to-date, N$824.8 million worth of building plans have been approved, 26.1% more in value than during the corresponding period in 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,198 building plans have been approved worth approximately N$2.01 billion, 19.4% higher in value terms than cumulative approvals in May 2018.

116 additions to properties were approved in May with a value of N$34.1 million, a drop of 42.5% m/m and 54.5% y/y. Year-to-date 643 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$334.2 million, an increase of 8.8% y/y in number but a decrease of 25.2% y/y in value terms. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of additions approved has increased by 4.4% y/y while declining by 29.7% y/y in value terms. We are seeing more additions to properties being approved but with a lower overall value being added.  Year-to-date 175 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$99.6 million, down 78.9% y/y in number and 60.1% y/y in value terms.

New residential units accounted for 42 of the approvals registered in May, an increase of 31.3% m/m and 13.5% y/y. In value terms, N$45.9 million worth of residential units were approved in May, up 36.0% m/m but down 7.7% y/y. Year-to-date residential unit approvals have increased by 22.6% y/y in number and 87.2% y/y in value. On a 12-month cumulative basis the rebound in residential units has been even more impressive, recording a 77.7% y/y increase in number of approvals and a 98.6% y/y increase in value. While the magnitude of the growth in number and value of approvals is largely due to base effects it is worth noting that, in value terms, one would have to go back to early 2014 to find a higher value for approvals of flats and houses, not adjusting for inflation. As building plan approvals are a leading indicator it points to increasing construction activity going forward, albeit in the residential space.

Only 1 new commercial unit, valued at N$1.3 million, was approved in May, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 15, worth a total of N$169.7 million. This is 11.8% down in number from May last year, but 373.3% up in value terms. On a rolling 12-month basis the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 41 units worth N$514.1 million as at May. This is a decrease of 19.6% y/y in number but an increase of 182.7% y/y in value. Unlike the strong performance seen in residential approvals, the performance in value terms over last year in the commercial and industrial space is attributable to base effects. In nominal terms the value of commercial and industrial approvals is still less on a rolling 12-month basis than in any year after 2011. The value of industrial and commercial developments is thus also picking up when compared to last May last year.

In the last 12 months 2,198 building plans worth N$2.01 billion have been approved, increasing by 14.7% y/y in terms of number of approvals and 19.4% y/y in terms of value. The total value of plans approved is 22.9% down from the peak in March 2013, as seen in the above figure. Should we adjust this figure for inflation we see that the value of plans approved is down over 42% from the peak in April 2013. Thus, while cumulative approvals have been increasing in number and value terms when compared to a year ago, construction activity in the Windhoek municipal area is very much subdued by historical standards.

Building Plans – April 2019

A total of 170 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in April, 12 more than in March. In values terms, approvals rose by N$40.4 million to N$169.04 million in April from N$128.6 million worth of approvals in March. A total of 62 building plans were completed  at a value of N$55.2 million in April. Year-to-date, N$743.5 million worth of building plans have been approved, 41.3% higher than the corresponding period in 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,200 building plans were approved worth approximately N$2.06 billion, 7.0% lower in value terms than cumulative approvals in April 2018.

The largest number of building plan approvals in April were made up of additions to properties. 132 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$59.3 million, 24.3% more in value terms than in April 2018. Year-to-date 527 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$300.0 million, a 19.3% y/y decline in value terms.

New residential units accounted for 32 of the total 170 approvals registered in April, an increase of 14.3% m/m compared to the 28 residential units approved in March. In value terms, N$33.8 million worth of residential units were approved in April, 5.3% more than the N$32.1 million worth of residential approvals in March. Year-to-date 121 residential units have been approved, 25 more than the corresponding period in 2018. In monetary terms, N$275.1 million worth of new residential plans have been approved year-to-date, an increase of 126.0% when compared to the corresponding period last year.

6 New commercial units valued at N$76.0 million were approved in April, bringing the year-to-date number of approvals to 14, worth a total of N$168.4 million. On al rolling 12-month perspective the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 43 units worth N$N$515.9 million as at April, compared to the 51 approved units worth N$680.0 million over the corresponding period a year ago.

In the last 12 months 2,200 building plans have been approved, increasing by 13.6% y/y in terms of number of approvals, but contracting by 7.0% y/y in terms of value. The growth in the cumulative number of plans approved has been driven mainly by approvals in additions to properties and new residential units which are of lower relative value. Growth in commercial and industrial construction activity remains extremely subdued as the decrease (on a 12-month cumulative basis) in credit extended to corporates also reflects.

Commercial banks currently carry a healthy monthly average liquidity position of N$3.79 billion, providing sufficient levels of loanable funds. Consumers and corporates alike therefore seem curtailed by waning appetite for credit, or are simply not meeting affordability requirements for loans with which to pursue construction projects. A lack of confidence in the economy is acting on both willingness to invest form individuals and corporates as well as appetite for risk from banks.

Building Plans – March 2019

A total of 158 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in March, 14 fewer than the 172 approvals recorded in February. The value of approvals was N$44.5 million lower at N$128.6 million in March, a 25.7% m/m decrease. The number of completions for the month of March stood at 37, valued at N$75.0 million. The year-to-date value of approved building plans reached N$574.5 million, 33.7% higher than in the first quarter of 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,194 building plans have been approved as at the end of March, an increase of 14.5% y/y. The 12-month cumulative value of plans approved reached approximately N$1.98 billion, a decrease of 11.0% y/y.

Additions to properties made up 127 of the 158 approved building plans recorded in March. This is a 7.3% m/m decrease in additions from the 137 additions recorded in February. Year-to-date 395 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$240.8 million, a 25.7% y/y drop in terms of value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 28 approvals registered in March, a 12.5% m/m decrease compared to the 32 residential units approved in February. In value terms, N$32.1 million worth of residential units were approved in March, 22.5% less than the N$41.4 million worth of residential approvals in February. 89 New residential units have been approved in the first quarter of 2019, 48% more than during the corresponding period in 2018. The year-to-date value of residential approvals reached N$241.3 million, 198.6% higher than during the first quarter of 2018.

Commercial and industrial building plans approved in March amounted to 3 units, worth N$6.1 million. This is the same number of units approved as in the prior month, but a decrease of 62.4% m/m and 15.9% y/y in value terms. Year-to-date, 8 plans for commercial and industrial purposes have been approved, valued at N$92.4 million. On a rolling 12-month perspective the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 38 units as at March, compared to the 54 approved over the corresponding period a year ago.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 14.5% as at the end of March when compared to the corresponding period in 2018. A total of 2,194 building plans to the value of N$1.98 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decrease in value of 11.0% y/y. The number of building plans approved, on a cumulative 12-month basis, has been increasing steadily since December 2017, but the value of cumulative plans has been decreasing since May 2018. We expect the economy, and construction activity as a result, to remain under pressure over the short-term, as both consumer and business confidence remains low.