Building Plans – December 2020

A total of 115 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in December, which is a 57.6% m/m decline from the 271 building plans approved in November. In value terms, approvals fell by 68.2% m/m to register N$75.4 million worth of approvals in December, compared to N$237.2 million in November. A total of 51 building plans worth N$32.0 million were completed during the month, representing an increase of 13.3% y/y in number, but a decline of 12.0% in value of completions. A total of 2,282 building plans were approved in 2020, 250 more than in 2019. However, in value terms approvals fell by 7.0% in 2020, declining from N$1.99 billion in 2019 to N$1.85 billion in 2020.

Additions to properties once again made up the majority of building plans approved in 2020. Of the 2,282 building plans approved in 2020, additions accounted for 1,601 of these approvals, 29 fewer than in 2019. In value terms, approvals of additions for the year declined by N$78.3 million or 10.1% y/y. The value of additions approved has been contracting for the past five years, with a decline of 10.1% recorded in 2020 following the 16.3% contraction in 2019. 84 additions were approved in December, 81 fewer than in November and 74.9% lower in value terms at N$23.9 million. During the year, 886 additions have been completed to a value of N$454.1 million, a drop of 30.5% y/y in number and 34.1% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 640 approvals registered in 2020, 285 more than in 2019. In value terms, new residential units approved increased from N$640.8 million in 2019 to N$823.5 million in 2020. On a month-on-month basis, the number of new residential approvals decreased by 71.2% to 30 in December, while the value of approvals declined by 80.9% to N$25.3 million. 30 Residential units valued at N$16.8 million were completed in December, bringing 2020’s total number to 720, up 133.8% y/y, and value to N$1.04 billion, up 155.0% y/y.

A total of 41 commercial and industrial units were approved in 2020 compared to the 47 approved in 2019. In value terms, commercial and industrial approvals fell by N$244.5 million or 42.5% for the year in 2020 from the N$575.6 million reported in 2019. In December, only 1 new commercial unit valued at N$26.2 million was approved, 1 fewer than in November, but a 162.2% m/m increase in terms of value. 1 Commercial and industrial building was completed in December, bringing the year’s total to 12, a 58.6% decline from 2019. In value terms, N$39.7 million worth of commercial and industrial units were completed in 2020, representing a contraction of 78.6% y/y.

The number of building plans approved in 2020 rose by 12.3% compared to 2019, but the cumulative number of plans remains down 32.9% from its peak in 2013. The cumulative value of approvals fell 7.0% y/y to N$1.85 billion in 2020 and is down 29.0% from the peak in 2013 in nominal terms. Building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and the above data implies that the Namibian economy is still showing signs of hardship. The significantly lower commercial building plan approvals in 2020 is another sign of this and indicate that most businesses are not planning on expanding their existing operations.

Building Plans – November 2020

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 271 building plans worth N$237.2 million in November, 35 fewer than in October. In value terms, approvals fell by N$90.5 million to N$237.2 million in November from N$327.7 million worth of approvals in October. A total of 61 building plans worth N$40.4 million were completed during the month, a decline of 76.3% y/y in number and 82.8% y/y in value of completions. Year-to-date, N$1.78 billion worth of building plans have been approved, 2.7% lower than the corresponding period in 2019. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,258 building plans have been approved worth approximately N$1.94 billion, 2.8% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of November 2019.

The largest portion of building plan approvals in November was made up of additions to properties. 165 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$95.1 million, 11.3% lower in number, but 42.4% more in value terms than in October. Year-to-date 1,517 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$673.5 million, a 3.1% y/y decline in number and 9.3% y/y decrease in value. 10 additions worth N$5.5 million were completed during the month. Year-to-date 866 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$444.8 million, down 31.2% y/y in number and 34.8% y/y in value terms.

New residential units accounted for 104 of the total 271 approvals registered in November, an 9.6% m/m decrease compared to the 115 residential units approved in October. In value terms, N$132.0 million worth of residential units were approved during the month, 45.6% less than the N$242.9 million worth of residential approvals in October. Year-to-date 610 residential units have been approved worth N$798.2 million, 278 units more than in the corresponding period in 2019 and up N$280.4 million in value terms. 51 Residential units valued at N$34.9 million were completed in November, bringing the year-to-date number to 690, up 147.3% y/y. In monetary terms, this is an increase of 170.4% y/y.

Only 2 new commercial units, valued at N$10.0 million, were approved in November, bringing the year-to-date number of approvals to 40, worth a total of N$305.0 million. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 43 units worth N$315.6 million as at November, compared to the 47 approved units worth N$566.1 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in November.

On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of building plan approvals have been ticking up steadily since June, although the growth has been from a relatively low base. In monetary terms, these approvals are up only 2.8% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 70.0% of the year-to-date total number of approvals, but only 37.9% of the total value of approvals, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The cumulative value of plans approved is still trending downward from a longer-term perspective, as the graph above indicates.

Building Plans – October 2020

A total of 306 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in October, 72 more than in September. In value terms, approvals rose by N$194.1 million to N$327.7 million in October from N$133.6 million worth of approvals in September. A total of 65 building plans were completed at a value of N$54.8 million in October, a decrease of 73.4% y/y in number and 50.1% y/y in value of completions. Year-to-date, N$1.54 billion worth of building plans have been approved, 9.6% lower than the comparative period a year ago. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,173 building plans were approved worth approximately N$1.83 billion, 1.2% higher in value terms than approvals at the end of October 2019.

The largest number of building plan approvals in October was made up of additions to properties. 186 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$67.0 million, 25.7% higher in number and 15.5% more in value terms than in September. Year-to-date 1,352 additions to properties have been approved with a total value of N$578.4 million, a 3.4% decline in number and 11.9% y/y decrease in value. 17 additions worth N$15.1 million were completed during the month. Year-to-date 856 additions have been completed with a combined value of N$439.3 million, down 16.7% y/y in number and 8.0% y/y in value terms.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 115 approvals registered in October, 30 more than in September. In value terms, N$242.9 million worth of residential units were approved in October, an increase of 35.3% m/m and 224.9% y/y. Year-to-date 506 new residential units have been approved worth N$666.2 million, an increase of 60.1% and 36.0% compared to the same time last year. 47 Residential units valued at N$39.3 million were completed in October bringing the year-to-date number to 639, up 151.6% y/y. In value terms this is an increase of 183.0% y/y to N$992.5 million.

5 New commercial units, valued at N$18.0 million, were approved in October, bringing the year-to-date number of commercial and industrial approvals to 38, worth a total of N$295.0 million. Bar one month, the number of approvals for commercial and industrial properties has been languishing in single-digit territory since September 2016 and has an average approval rate of fewer than 4 approvals per month over the last 12 months. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 46 units, worth approximately N$314.8 million, a decrease of 43.6% in value terms from the period ending October 2019. One commercial building plan was recorded as completed in October, valued at N$400,000.

During the last 12 months, 2,173 building plans have been approved, increasing by 11.6% y/y. These approvals were worth a combined N$1.83 billion, an increase in value of 1.2% y/y. The last 3 months have seen a steady uptick in the 12-month cumulative number of plans approved in the capital, but the growth in the cumulative value of plans approved have been lagging, for the most part, indicating that the planned construction activity will mostly consist of smaller building projects. The cumulative value of plans approved is still trending downward from a longer-term perspective, as the graph above indicates.

The value of plans completed has however recovered more significantly as can be seen in the below figure, although as we have cautioned in the past, this could simply be due to a completions backlog (paperwork backlog) which is now being processed by the City of Windhoek, making it difficult to say when the actual construction activity took place.