Building Plans – August 2021

The City of Windhoek approved 253 building plans in August, a 19.9% m/m increase from the 211 approved in July. The value of approvals increased by 11.1% m/m to N$161.7 million. Year-to-date there have been 1,591 approvals, valued at N$1.25 billion, 15.8% higher in value terms and 17.3% higher in number terms than at the same time last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of building plan approvals rose by 22.8% y/y to 2,517 as the value of approvals rose by 4.5% y/y to N$2.02 billion. In August, 131 construction projects were completed at a value of N$68.4 billion. This is a marked increase from the number of completions in July when only 36 projects were completed, the second-lowest figure for the year.  Year-to-date, 969 plans, valued at N$517.9 million have been completed, a 60.0% contraction in value terms compared to the same period a year ago.

Additions to properties made up 65% of total approvals in August. 165 additions were approved at a value of N$57.1 million, a 20.4% m/m increase in number, but a 12.0% m/m decrease in value from the N$64.9 worth of addition approvals in July. Year-to-date, 983 additions have been approved at a value of N$466.0 million, a 3.4% decrease in number, but a 2.7% increase in value terms. In August, 78 additions were completed at a value of N$17.18 million. Although the number and value of additions completed per month trend to vary widely – August’s figures sit close to the year-to-date averages.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved with 83 approvals registered in August. In terms of value, the N$84.1 million worth of residential units approved in August represents a 4.7% m/m increase. Year-to-date 583 units worth N$694.9 million have been approved, double the value of residential approvals achieved this time last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved increased by 123.1% y/y and 98.0% in value terms. 53 new residential units worth N$51.2 million were completed in August. This represents a year-to-date decrease in value of 59.8% compared to this time last August. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units completed stands is 526 at a value of N$531.8 million. As such, the 12-month cumulative value of completed residential units decreased, by 45.1% y/y, for the first time in over a year.  

In August five commercial units, valued at N$20.4 million, were approved. Year-to-date, 25 commercial buildings at a value of N$87.8 million have been approved.  No commercial building projects have been completed since March. This is the longest run of zero completions in the commercial construction sector since independence. Commercial projects continue to be approved; they are not being completed.

On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of buildings completed fell by 42.9% y/y, translating to a 57.4% y/y decrease in value. There is a simple, mechanical explanation for this. Namibia’s first hard lockdown of 2020 put a pause on all building projects. In April of that year no construction projects; be that additions, residential units or commercial projects were completed. This is likely to have created a glut of unfinished construction projects. As construction sites reopened, the following five months saw a massive spike in the value of completed projects. For example, in August of 2020 the value of completed construction projects was N$395.0 million – the most ever added in one month. This August’s figure for the 12-month cumulative value of completed construction projects is the first this year to not consider the large, distorted, values of completed projects from the May 2020 – September 2020 post-lockdown period. The 12-month cumulative value of plans completed now, despite the large decrease recorded this August, gives a more accurate picture of the short-term trends and current conditions in the Namibian construction industry.

Building Plans – July 2021

The City of Windhoek approved 211 building plans in July, a 77.3% m/m increase from the yearly low of 119 approvals in June. The value of the approvals increased by 13.4% m/m to N$145.6 million, compared to the N$128.4 million recorded in June. 2021 has now seen 1,338 approvals, valued at N$1.09 billion, 19.4% higher in number terms and 12.5% higher in value terms than during the same period last year. The increase is from a low base due to the strict lockdown measures early last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, building plan approvals rose by 24.5% y/y to 2,499, while the value of approvals rose 0.7% y/y to N$1.97 billion. A total of 36 completions to the value of N$24.4 million were recorded in July. Year-to-date, 838 building plans, valued at N$449.5 million have been completed, a 23.3% decline in number terms, and a 50.1% contraction in value terms, compared to the same period a year-ago.

Additions to properties made up most approvals. In July, 137 additions valued at N$64.9 million were approved, breaking a two-month streak of consecutive declines in both number and value terms. Year-to-date, 818 additions have been approved with a value of N$408.9 million, a 4.9% decrease in number, but a 4.9% y/y increase in value terms. Only 6 additions to properties were completed in July at a value of N$3.27 million, a 80.4% m/m decrease in value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 73 approvals registered in July, 22 more than in June. In value terms, N$80.4 million worth of residential units were approved in July, a 4.0% m/m and 11.2% y/y increase. So far in 2021 500 units worth N$610.8 million have been approved. This translates to a year-to-date increase in value of 93.6% . On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of residential units approved increased by 146.6% y/y and by 86.3% y/y in value terms. 30 new residential units worth N$21.1 million were completed in July.

Only one commercial unit, valued at N$280,000 was approved in July. This brings the total number of commercial buildings approved in 2021 to 20, at a value of N$67.4 million. While 30 commercial buildings, valued at a N$137.6 million, have been approved in the last 12 months, no commercial units were completed for the fourth month running. Year-to-date, commercial and industrial completions account for only 1.3% of the total value of completions, well below the pre-pandemic 2019 average contribution.   

On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of building plans approved increased by 24.5% y/y. This increase is however from a low base. 2,499 building plans to the value of N$1.97 billion were approved in the last 12 months, representing a 0.7% y/y increase in value. Additions to properties made up 63.9% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 36.3% of the total value of approvals. Commercial and industrial building plan approvals are on course to be even lower in 2021 than in 2020 with only 20 approvals worth N$67.4 million thus far, compared to 31 approvals worth N$261.0 million at the same point last year. As building plan approvals is a forward-looking measure of expected construction activity this does not bode well for economic activity in the capital in general. The construction industry thus remains fragile.

Building Plans – June 2021

The City of Windhoek rubber stamped 119 building plans in June, the lowest for the year and 55.9% lower than the 187 approvals in May. The value of the approvals fell by 25.7% m/m to N$128.4 million, compared to the N$173.0 million recorded in May. The first half of 2021 has seen 1,127 approvals, valued at N$941.5 million, 28.7% higher in number terms and 14.1% higher in value terms, than during the same period last year. The increase is however from a low base, following the strict lockdown measures early last year. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, building plan approvals rose by 30.4% y/y to 2,533, while the value of approvals rose 1.9% y/y to N$1.97 billion. A total of 124 completions to the value of N$58.6 million were recorded in June. Year-to-date, 802 building plans, valued at N$425.1 million have been completed this year, representing a 4.4% decline in number terms, and a 25.7% contraction in value terms, compared to the same period a year-ago, when construction activity halted for one out of the first six months.

In terms of the number of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the majority of approvals. Only 65 additions, worth  N$35.1 million were approved in June, representing a third consecutive month of decline in both number and value terms. 73 additions worth N$16.6 million were completed in June, representing a decrease in value of 40.8% m/m.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 51 approvals registered in June, 27 fewer than in May. In value terms, N$77.3 million worth of residential units were approved in June, a decrease of 16.5% m/m, but an increase of 6.9% y/y. In the first half of 2021, 427 new residential units were approved worth N$530.4 million, representing a 168.6% y/y increase in number and 118.0% y/y increase in value. This increase is however from a very low base, and shows just how severe last year’s contraction was. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of additions approved has increased by 176.0% y/y as well as by 103.4% y/y in value terms. 51 new residential units worth N$41.9 million were completed during the month.

Three commercial units, valued at N$16.0 million got the nod in June, translating to a 16.5% m/m decrease in value terms. Nineteen commercial buildings, valued at N$67.1 million were approved in the first half of 2021. Despite the 32 approvals, valued at N$146.1 million in the last 12 months, no commercial units were completed for the third consecutive month. Year-to-date, commercial and industrial completions have accounted for 1.3% of the total value of completions, cementing the first half of 2021 as the worst 6 months in the last 31 years.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 30.4% y/y in June, although the increase came from a low base. A total of 2,533 building plans to the value of N$1.97 billion were approved over the last 12 months, representing an increase in value of 1.9% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 62.9% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 36.2% of the total value of approvals. Completed building plans increased 9.5% y/y in value terms to N$1.39 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis in June. Overall, each sub-category of completions as well as approvals experienced contractions in number terms compared to last month, indicating that construction activity will remain subdued over the short- to medium term.