A total of 1,646 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during September. New vehicle sales decreased by 13.8% year on year, but increased 3.3% month on month. At this point of the year, 16,175 vehicles have been sold so far in 2015, up 1% on the comparable period of 2014. Although this figure keeps Namibia on track for a record year of new vehicle sales at present, the declining rate of growth of new vehicle sales suggests otherwise. The 12-month cumulative measure of new vehicles sold decreased further to 22,090 in September from 22,354 in August, largely due to an elevated base and strong vehicle sales in 2014.
Passenger vehicle sales rose by 4.3% month on month, from 665 in August to 683 in September, down from a high of 910 in March this year. On a year to date basis, sales of passenger vehicles slowed further by 1.3% to 7,199, while year on year sales fell by 10.7% off a reasonably high base. After August, this is the second year to date contraction in passenger vehicle sales since March 2013. 2014 saw exceptional growth in passenger vehicle sales which has proven to be unsustainable as the year to date percentage change in vehicle sales has shown. In 2014 this measure of passenger vehicle sales growth averaged 27% per month but has dropped to -1.2% for this year.
Commercial vehicle sales increased by 2.7% month on month as 963 vehicles sold. On a year on year basis a 15.9% decrease was recorded. Thus while the year to date figure is still above last year’s, the growth rate in commercial vehicle sales is declining steadily, although off a high base. Light commercial vehicle sales increased slightly by 0.2% month on month but fell 18.9% year on year. Medium commercial vehicle sales fell 7.8% month on month and declined 12.5% year on year. Heavy commercial vehicle sales rose by 47.3% month on month and 35.0% year on year, emphasizing the trend of slowing growth in sales. Despite this trend year to date commercial vehicle sales are still on track for a record year.
Toyota once again topped the number of vehicles sold per brand for the month at 650, a market share of 39.0%. 193 or 28.1% of the 683 passenger vehicles sold during the month were Toyotas, as well as 457 or 54.0% of the 847 light commercial vehicles sold. Volkswagen moved 174 passenger vehicles or 25.5% of the total sold during the month. In total Volkswagen’s market share was 13.0% of the total. Ford managed 7.5% market share for the month, closely followed by Nissan with 6.0% and Isuzu with 5.9%.
The Bottom Line
We have seen exceptionally strong vehicle sales growth through 2014, fuelled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth, but the latest figures show that this trend is losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales in 2014 have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold is still strong. Thus we may see vehicle sales normalising somewhat at the levels seen this year. Downside risks to this are rising interest rates which may limit marginal lenders from qualifying for financing as well as banking sector liquidity which may limit the amount of loans available to finance vehicle purchases.