A total of 1,252 vehicles were sold in September, 8.5% less than the number of vehicles sold in August and 23.9% down compared to the number of vehicles sold in September 2015. Since January this year, 13,058 vehicles have been sold, down 19.3% from the number of vehicles sold over the comparable period last year. Vehicle sales have been declining during 2016 when compared to 2015 and 2014 although still above the levels seen in 2013.
As indicated by the below figure, the 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sold has been contracting since December 2015. The rate of contraction has been rapid with this measure of vehicles sold falling 17.9% year on year and 2.1% month on month. The contraction in 12-month cumulative vehicle sales has been led by passenger vehicle sales which have been slowing at a more rapid rate than the same measure for commercial vehicle sales.
On a monthly basis, total passenger vehicle sales fell 5.2% to 509 in September. Year to date, total sales of passenger vehicles declined by 21.6% to 5,571 from 7,199 sold over the same period last year. Commercial vehicle sales fell 10.7% month on month and 22.8% year on year, while year to date figures dropped by 17.4% from 9,069 to 7,487. Light, medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales dropped on a month on month basis as well as on a year-to-date basis.
Toyota and Volkswagen dominated the passenger vehicle market yet again, with the two brands claiming 31.2% and 26.7% of the market share respectively. Toyota was the outright leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 46.9% of the market, followed by Nissan at 17.7%, and Isuzu in 3rd place with 13.9%.
The Bottom Line
Vehicle sales have been contracting by most measures in 2016 for a number of reasons, namely, higher interest rates, a slowdown in government spending (on vehicles as well as in general), recent amendments to the Credit Agreement Act, as well as the high base against which these measurements are compared. The high base created in 2014 and 2015 was a result of large amounts of government spending and rapid growth in private sector credit extension which drove strong economic growth. The pro-cyclical nature of government’s fiscal and monetary policy has resulted in a slightly overheated Namibian economy, and thus a drop in vehicle sales from the high base set in previous years is to be expected.
Going forward we expect to see government spending cut further in the next fiscal year as well as a prolonged freeze on new hires by the state. Interest rates may rise further due to the aforementioned slowdown in government spending affecting banking sector liquidity as well as the probability of both a South African and Namibian credit ratings downgrade to sub-investment grade. These factors along with a weakening Rand are likely to put further pressure on vehicle sales going forward.