Out of interest, I had a quick look at a regression of the oil price on local fuel prices. This suggests that pump prices still have a long way to fall locally, as the current low oil prices in Jan will only be passed through to pump prices in March/April(/May) – see Namibia CPI – December 2014. If oil prices remain as low as they are currently, if the Rand remains stable(ish), and if these declining prices are passed through to the consumer (rather than used to build a slate account balance), we could see coastal pump prices for petrol of under N$7 per liter! While possible, however, this is a bit unlikely, primarily due to the fact that oil prices will probably not remain as depressed as they are now for a prolonged period. As well as this, I doubt that the entirety of the price-fall will be passed along to consumers, and rather that a slate account balance will be accumulated which will allow for better price smoothing over coming months/years, when prices of oil are likely to be volatile.
