GDP Growth for 2013 revised up to 5.1%, from 4.4%
This afternoon the NSA released its final national accounts for 2013, following the release of the preliminary figures in Q1 of 2014.
What is immediately striking in this release is the magnitude of the change between the preliminary and final releases, as shown in the graph below. According to the statistics agency, these changes come about as the result of changes in methodology, designed to make the accounts more accurate.
As can be seen below, the changes stem from a number of sectors, with the overall effect of the change in figures being a revision of real growth from 4.4% in the preliminary accounts, to 5.1% in the final accounts. This 0.7 percentage point change represents a 16% revision in the growth figure for the year (noteworthy as well is the 120% change in the 2009 real growth figure, which takes the economy from a recession of 1.5% to expansion of 0.3%).
While we remain concerned about the constant changing of the national account figures, we do view the revision as positive when it comes to the accounts representing the reality on the ground (for 2013). Due to unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, coupled with a booming construction sector and abnormally high levels of FDI, we generally believe that growth figures for 2013 should have been higher than the previously reported 4.4%. The lower figures in 2010 to 2012 are, however, somewhat surprising.
We remain very bullish on the Namibian economy for 2014, however may tamper growth expectations marginally on account of base effects in the figures (no major change in real sector activity, however). We will review our growth forecast and carry out a more comprehensive report on the final national account figures over coming weeks.
