Category Archives: Team Commentary

Team Commentary

New Vehicle Sales – November

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1,992 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during November, the second most vehicles sold on a monthly basis, slightly less than the record set in October. The lower monthly figures were caused by a slowdown in commercial vehicle sales and passenger vehicle sales. At this point, total sales for the year stand just shy of 20,000 vehicles, up 25.8% on the comparable period of 2013.

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The 12-month cumulative measure increased further to 21,155 and is now 33.8% higher than a year ago, down 2.0% from the previous month. The decrease in the 12-month cumulative figure is a combination of a low base and strong results in the current period.

Sales of passenger vehicles decreased in November, falling by 9.4% to 764 vehicles sold. Year to date number of passenger vehicle sales are 23.7% higher than a year ago, highlighting the current state of the consumer. Commercial vehicle sales decreased slightly, down 1.7% m/m to 1,228 vehicles sold, from a record of 1,249 in the previous month. This was on account of lower numbers recorded in the light and heavy categories.

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Toyota and Volkswagen dominated the passenger market, selling the most vehicles in November, with the two brands claiming 37.0% and 13.0% of sales respectively. Toyota once again was the market leader in light commercial vehicles, having the lion’s share of sales at 47.4% of the market, followed by Nissan at 15.9%.

The Bottom Line

The strong increase in vehicle sales is attributed to a number of factors, namely the on-going expansive fiscal and monetary positions of the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Namibia, as well as purchase of vehicles by Government. The Ministry of Finance has allocated N$984.5m to vehicle purchases in the 2014/15 National Budget,a N$517.8m (111.0%) increase on the vehicle expenditure budget of the 2013/14 financial year. We expect the strong growth trend to continue, however sales may slowdown as monetary policy tightening is likely to continue. Nevertheless, government tenders yet to be delivered will maintain the momentum of vehicle sales through 2014.

Building Plans – November 2014

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A total of 231 building plans to the value of N$130.1m were approved by the City of Windhoek in November 2014. On a year‑to‑date basis (January to November), 2,710 plans were approved compared to 3,136 plans over the same period last year. In value terms, plans approved year-to-date are worth N$2.053bn compared to N$2.105bn for the same period in 2013, down 2.5%. This decrease is mostly due to base effects. On a monthly basis, 10 more plans were approved than in October and the value of plans approved is up 50.1% m/m, coming of a notable low value in October.

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The 12 month cumulative number of plans approved continued to lose momentum during November, falling to 2,874 compared to 2,963 in October, with the year-on-year growth rate contracting by 12.7%, posting negative growth for the seventh consecutive month, as shown in the graph below. The 12-month cumulative value of plans approved totaled N$2.167bn, down 1.4% y/y.

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In our view, the construction sector will be one of the leading growth and development sectors in the Namibian economy for 2014, despite a slight decline in the building plans approved recently, as many development and construction plans fall out of the Windhoek municipal area, and as such are not captured in the monthly building plan statistics.