2014 New Vehicle Sales

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1,831 new vehicles were sold during December, slightly less than November, as December is usually a seasonally slower month, nevertheless, an increase of 53.9% y/y. Monthly sales figures show record sales were seen during every month of the year in 2014. Total sales for the year stand just shy of 22,000 vehicles, up 36.2% on the 16,113 vehicles sold the previous year.

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During 2014, 9,629 passenger vehicles drove out the show room, with the sales 25.7% higher than 2013, highlighting the flamboyant state of the consumer. Commercial vehicle sales also increased significantly, with strong sales from the light, medium and heavy commercial categories. Commercial vehicles sold totaled 12,323, up 45.8% on last year’s figure.

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Toyota and Volkswagen dominated the passenger market, selling the most vehicles in 2014, with the two brands claiming 30.6% and 22.4% of sales respectively. Toyota was also the market leader in light commercial vehicles, having the lion’s share of sales at 47.7% of the market, followed by Nissan at 14.5% and Ford in third place with 9.9%.

The Bottom Line

The strong increase in vehicle sales is attributed to a number of factors, namely the on-going expansive fiscal and monetary positions of the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Namibia, as well as purchase of vehicles by Government. The Ministry of Finance has allocated N$984.5m to vehicle purchases in the 2014/15 National Budget, a N$517.8m (111.0%) increase on the vehicle expenditure budget of the 2013/14 financial year. We expect the strong growth trend to continue, however sales may slowdown as monetary policy tightening is likely to continue. Nevertheless, government tenders yet to be delivered will maintain the momentum of vehicle sales through 2015.

Local pump prices – plenty of room to fall further

Out of interest, I had a quick look at a regression of the oil price on local fuel prices. This suggests that pump prices still have a long way to fall locally, as the current low oil prices in Jan will only be passed through to pump prices in March/April(/May) – see Namibia CPI – December 2014. If oil prices remain as low as they are currently, if the Rand remains stable(ish), and if these declining prices are passed through to the consumer (rather than used to build a slate account balance), we could see coastal pump prices for petrol of under N$7 per liter! While possible, however,  this is a bit unlikely, primarily due to the fact that oil prices will probably not remain as depressed as they are now for a prolonged period. As well as this, I doubt that the entirety of the price-fall will be passed along to consumers, and rather that a slate account balance will be accumulated which will allow for better price smoothing over coming months/years, when prices of oil are likely to be volatile.

Namibian Petrol Prices

New Vehicle Sales – November

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1,992 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during November, the second most vehicles sold on a monthly basis, slightly less than the record set in October. The lower monthly figures were caused by a slowdown in commercial vehicle sales and passenger vehicle sales. At this point, total sales for the year stand just shy of 20,000 vehicles, up 25.8% on the comparable period of 2013.

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The 12-month cumulative measure increased further to 21,155 and is now 33.8% higher than a year ago, down 2.0% from the previous month. The decrease in the 12-month cumulative figure is a combination of a low base and strong results in the current period.

Sales of passenger vehicles decreased in November, falling by 9.4% to 764 vehicles sold. Year to date number of passenger vehicle sales are 23.7% higher than a year ago, highlighting the current state of the consumer. Commercial vehicle sales decreased slightly, down 1.7% m/m to 1,228 vehicles sold, from a record of 1,249 in the previous month. This was on account of lower numbers recorded in the light and heavy categories.

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Toyota and Volkswagen dominated the passenger market, selling the most vehicles in November, with the two brands claiming 37.0% and 13.0% of sales respectively. Toyota once again was the market leader in light commercial vehicles, having the lion’s share of sales at 47.4% of the market, followed by Nissan at 15.9%.

The Bottom Line

The strong increase in vehicle sales is attributed to a number of factors, namely the on-going expansive fiscal and monetary positions of the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Namibia, as well as purchase of vehicles by Government. The Ministry of Finance has allocated N$984.5m to vehicle purchases in the 2014/15 National Budget,a N$517.8m (111.0%) increase on the vehicle expenditure budget of the 2013/14 financial year. We expect the strong growth trend to continue, however sales may slowdown as monetary policy tightening is likely to continue. Nevertheless, government tenders yet to be delivered will maintain the momentum of vehicle sales through 2014.