Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 1,389 new vehicles were sold during January, a drop of 13.5% from the December sales of 1,583 and down 19.1% over January 2015, driven by a slowdown in both passenger and commercial vehicle sales. Rolling 12 month sales continued to contract after turning negative in December for the first time in 69 months, with the year on year 12 month percentage change -5.6% for January.

Sales of passenger vehicles fell by 11.1% month on month, from 614 in December to 546 in January, down from a high of 910 in March 2015. On an annual basis, total sales of passenger vehicles fell by 26.5%. Commercial vehicle sales decreased 13.4% year on year to a sales figure of 843 vehicles, which was due to lower sales numbers of light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a monthly basis, commercial vehicle sales was 13.0% lower than in December.

Toyota and Volkswagen continue to dominate the passenger vehicle segment with Volkswagen selling 152 (28%) vehicles and Toyota selling 141 (26%) of the 546 passenger vehicles sold. Toyota was however the market leader in light commercial vehicle sales, having the lion’s share at 51% of the market, followed by Nissan at 21% and Ford in third place with 10%. Commercial vehicle sales continue to come in higher than passenger vehicle sales as has been the long term trend.

The Bottom Line

We have seen exceptionally strong vehicle sales through 2014 and 2015, fueled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth, but the latest figures show that this trend is losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales over the last two years have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold as a whole is still relatively strong. We expect to see vehicle sales normalising somewhat at these levels. Downside risks to this are rising interest rates which may limit marginal lenders from qualifying for financing as well as banking sector liquidity which may limit the amount of loans available to finance vehicle purchases.

A total of 1,583 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during December. New vehicle sales decreased by 13.5% year on year and decreased 8.0% month on month. During 2015, a total of 21,246 new vehicles were sold, down 3.2% when compared to 2014. This slight decrease was largely due to an elevated base and strong vehicle sales in 2014.

Passenger vehicle sales rose by 4.4% month on month, from 588 in November to 614 in December, down from a high of 910 in March this year. On a year to date basis, total sales of passenger vehicles during 2015 slowed further by 6.2% to 9,035, while year on year sales fell by 25.4% off a high base. 2014 saw exceptional growth in passenger vehicle sales, setting a high base, which has proven to be unsustainable as the year to date percentage change in vehicle sales has shown.

Commercial vehicle sales decreased by 14.5% month on month as 969 vehicles were sold. On a year on year basis, total commercial vehicle sales for 2015 decreased by 0.9% as the growth rate in commercial vehicle sales declined steadily during the year, turning negative for the first time in 29 months in November. Light commercial vehicle sales decreased by 16.6% month on month and fell 5.3% year on year. Total light commercial vehicles for 2015 fell 1.9% compared to 2014. Medium commercial vehicle sales rose 4.2% month on month and fell 34.2% year on year, largely due to the low number of vehicles sold in this category. Total medium commercial vehicles for 2015 fell 2.5% compared to 2014. Heavy commercial vehicle sales rose by 12.5% month on month and 46.9% year on year. Total heavy commercial vehicles sold during 2015 rose 15.9% to 830 compared to 2014, taking it to a record year. Medium and Heavy commercial vehicle sales figures fluctuate greatly due to the low numbers of these vehicles that are sold on a monthly basis.

Toyota topped the number of vehicles sold per brand for the year at 8,178, a market share of 38.5%. 2,787 or 30.8% of the 9,035 passenger vehicles sold during the year were Toyotas, as well as 5,381 or 49.0% of the 10,989 light commercial vehicles sold in 2015. Volkswagen moved 2,169 passenger vehicles or 24.0% of the total passenger vehicles sold during the year. Volkswagen’s market share was 12.4% of the total. Nissan’s market share this year was 9.6% of the total vehicle sales and 15.7% of total light commercial vehicles sold.

The Bottom Line

We have seen exceptionally strong vehicle sales growth through 2014, fuelled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth, but the latest figures show that this trend is losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales in 2014 have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold as a whole is still strong. We expect to see vehicle sales normalising somewhat at the levels seen this year. Downside risks to this are rising interest rates which may limit marginal lenders from qualifying for financing as well as banking sector liquidity which may limit the amount of loans available to finance vehicle purchases.

A total of 1,721 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during November. New vehicle sales decreased by 13.6% year on year and decreased 2.6% month on month. At this point of the year, 19,663 vehicles have been sold so far in 2015, down 2.3% on the comparable period of 2014. Thus Namibia is no longer on track for a record year of new vehicle sales, the declining rate of growth of new vehicle sales suggests that we may see a contraction. The 12-month cumulative measure of new vehicles sold decreased further to 21,494 in November from a high of 22,664 in April, largely due to an elevated base and strong vehicle sales in 2014.

Passenger vehicle sales fell by 19.1% month on month, from 727 in October to 588 in November, down from a high of 910 in March this year. On a year to date basis, sales of passenger vehicles slowed further by 4.4% to 8,421, while year on year sales fell by 23.0% off a high base. 2014 saw exceptional growth in passenger vehicle sales, setting a high base, which has proven to be unsustainable as the year to date percentage change in vehicle sales has shown.

Commercial vehicle sales increased by 8.9% month on month as 1,133 vehicles were sold. On a year on year basis commercial vehicle sales decreased by 7.7%, and the year to date figure is now lower than for the same period last year as the growth rate in commercial vehicle sales declined steadily, turning negative for the first time in 29 months. Light commercial vehicle sales increased by 12.2% fell 6.7% year on year. Medium commercial vehicle sales fell 44.2% month on month and 38.5% year on year, largely due to the low number of vehicles sold in this category. Heavy commercial vehicle sales fell by 3.0% month on month and 17.2% year on year. Medium and Heavy commercial vehicle sales figures fluctuate greatly due to the low numbers of these vehicles that are sold on a monthly basis. On a year to date basis both medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales are still on track for a record year while light commercial sales figures have declined to below last year’s level.

Toyota once again topped the number of vehicles sold per brand for the month at 824, a market share of 47.9%. 184 or 31.3% of the 588 passenger vehicles sold during the month were Toyotas, as well as 639 or 61.1% of the 1,045 light commercial vehicles sold. Volkswagen moved 118 passenger vehicles or 20.1% of the total sold during the month. Volkswagen’s market share was 8.8% of the total. Nissan lost some market share this month with 9.3% of the total vehicle sales and Ford’s market share declined to 6.3% for the month.

The Bottom Line

We have seen exceptionally strong vehicle sales growth through 2014, fuelled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth, but the latest figures show that this trend is losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales in 2014 have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold as a whole is still strong. We expect to see vehicle sales normalising somewhat at the levels seen this year. Downside risks to this are rising interest rates which may limit marginal lenders from qualifying for financing as well as banking sector liquidity which may limit the amount of loans available to finance vehicle purchases.