Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 1,369 vehicles were sold in August, 12.8% less than the number of vehicles sold in July and 14.1% down compared to the number of vehicles sold in August 2015. Since January this year, 11,806 vehicles have been sold, down 18.7% from the number of vehicles sold over the comparable period last year. Vehicles sales is currently trending down a year-on-year basis. This suggests that this trend is likely to continue going forward.

For the past 12 months, the number of vehicles sold on a cumulative basis in Namibia has been declining, posting negative since December 2015. On a 12-month cumulative basis, 18,523 vehicles were sold up to the end of August 2016, 17.1% less than the number of vehicles sold over the same period last year and 1.2% less than the cumulative number of vehicles sold in the 12 months to July this year.

On a monthly basis, total passenger vehicle sales fell by 17.8% to 537 in August, the lowest number of passenger vehicles sold since January 2013. Year to date, total sales of passenger vehicles declined 21.2% to 5,062 from 6,423 sold in the same period last year. The number of commercial vehicles sold decreased on a year-to-date and year-on-year basis, down 16.8% and 11.3% respectively. Year to date, 6,744 commercial vehicles have been sold, down from 8,106 sold in the same period in 2015. The decrease in the number of commercial vehicles sold was mainly driven by a contraction in light and medium commercial vehicle sales. On a month-on-month basis, the number of commercial vehicles sold declined by 9.3% in August to 832, down from 917 in the preceding month.

Toyota and Volkswagen dominated the passenger market, selling the most vehicles in August, with the two brands claiming 29.2% and 28.7% respectively.  Toyota once again was the market leader in light commercial vehicles, having the lion’s share of sales at 45.2% of the market, followed by Nissan at 16.6%, and Isuzu in 3rd place.

The Bottom Line

Throughout the period of 2014 all the way to mid-2015, we have seen robust growth in vehicle sales, which was driven by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy and real wage growth in those periods. However, recent data indicates that this is no longer the case as vehicles sales contractions have been seen. Strong growth in vehicle sales over the last couple of years has significantly increased the base on which vehicle sales growth is calculated and this has contributed to the contractions seen in vehicle sales on a 12-month cumulative basis and year-to-date basis. That said the number of vehicles sold on an annual basis is still fairly strong.

The slowdown in the number of vehicles sold has been driven by a number of factors. For instance, higher interest rates and inflation levels, reduction in government spending (directly on vehicles and otherwise), and a weaker economic climate at large have adversely impacted the demand for vehicles. In addition, the amendment to the Credit Agreement Act made on 20 July, enforcing a mandatory 10% deposit on all passenger vehicles and reducing the maximum repayment period to 54 months will further drive down vehicle sales and growth thereof going forward.

A total of 1,570 vehicles were sold in July, 1.2% less than the number of vehicles sold in June and 18.8% down compared to the number of vehicles sold in July 2015. Since January this year, 10,437 vehicles have been sold, down 19.3% from the number of vehicles sold over the comparable period last year. Vehicles sales is currently trending down on a year-on-year basis. This suggests that this trend is likely to continue going forward.

For the past 12 months, the number of vehicles sold on a cumulative basis in Namibia has been declining, posting negative since December 2015. On a 12-month cumulative basis, 18,747 vehicles were sold up to the end of July 2016, 16.5% less than the number of vehicles sold over the same period last year and 1.9% less than the cumulative number of vehicles sold in the 12 months to June this year.

On a monthly basis, total passenger vehicle sales rose by 1.6% to 653 in July. On an annual basis however, total sales of passenger vehicles declined 16.5% from 782 in July 2015. The number of commercial vehicles sold decreased on a year-to-date and year-on-year basis, down 17.5% and 20.3% respectively. The decrease in the number of commercial vehicles sold was mainly driven by a contraction in light and medium commercial vehicle sales. On a month-on-month basis, the number of commercial vehicles sold declined by 3.1% in July from 946 in the preceding month.

Toyota and Volkswagen continue to dominate the passenger vehicle segment with Toyota selling 207 (31.7%) vehicles and Volkswagen selling 158 (24.2%) of the 653 passenger vehicles sold. Toyota was the market leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 46.8% of the sales in this segment, followed by Ford with 15.4% and Isuzu in third place with 12%. Commercial vehicle sales continue to come in higher than passenger vehicle sales as has been the long term trend.

The Bottom Line

Throughout the period of 2014 all the way to mid-2015, we have seen robust growth in vehicle sales, which was driven by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy and real wage growth in those periods. However, recent data indicates that this is no longer the case as vehicles sales contractions have been seen. Strong growth in vehicle sales over the last couple of years has significantly increased the base on which vehicle sales growth is calculated and this has contributed to the contractions seen in vehicle sales on a 12-month cumulative basis and year-to-date basis. That said the number of vehicles sold on an annual basis is still fairly strong.

The slowdown in the number of vehicles sold has been driven by a number of factors. For instance, higher interest rates and inflation levels, reduction in government spending (directly on vehicles and otherwise), and a weaker economic climate at large have adversely impacted the demand for vehicles. In addition, the amendment to the Credit Agreement Act made on 20 July, enforcing a mandatory 10% deposit on all passenger vehicles and reducing the maximum repayment period to 54 months will further drive down vehicle sales and growth thereof going forward.

A total of 1,589 new vehicles were sold during June, up 3.5% from the May sales of 1,535, however, 13.9% less than June 2015. The slowdown was driven mainly by a 29.0% decline in passenger vehicle sales. For the first six months of 2016, 8,869 vehicles were sold, down 19.4% on the comparable period of 2015. The extent of the contraction in new vehicle sales suggests that we are extremely likely to see another contraction in new vehicle sale this year, only to a much larger extent than the slight decrease seen in 2015.

On a 12 month rolling basis, cumulative vehicle sales continued to contract through June, with the rate of contraction increasing slightly when compared to the preceding month. Rolling 12 month sales contracted 14.8% in June, to 19,110 vehicles sold over the previous 12 months, compared to 19,366 recorded in the 21 months to May.

Sales of passenger vehicles fell by 3.9% month on month, from 669 in May to 643 in June. On an annual basis, total sales of passenger vehicles fell by 29%. Commercial vehicle sales increased 0.7% year on year to a sales figure of 946 vehicles. This increase was mostly driven by growth in sales of light and heavy commercial vehicles. On a monthly basis, commercial vehicle sales were 9.2% higher than in June.

Toyota and Volkswagen continue to dominate the passenger vehicle segment with Toyota selling 274 (43%) vehicles and Volkswagen selling 153 (24%) of the 669 passenger vehicles sold. Toyota had 50% of the market share in light commercial vehicle sales, followed by Nissan at 17% and Ford in third place with 11%. Commercial vehicle sales continue to come in higher than passenger vehicle sales as has been the long term trend.

The Bottom Line

We saw exceptionally strong vehicle sales and vehicle sales growth through 2014 and the first half of 2015, fuelled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy and real wage growth. However, the latest figures show that this trend is now losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales over the last two years have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold is still relatively strong. The current slowdown was largely expected, as higher interest rates, lower government spending (directly on vehicles and otherwise), lower retail activity from Angolans and a broadly weaker economic environment have dampened new vehicle demand. At the same time, it appears that commercial banks are becoming more cautious in their lending practices, both due to tighter funding conditions and caution with regards to household debt levels in the rising interest rate environment.

Going forward, we expect vehicle sales to remain around current levels for the rest of the year, before returning to a more organic growth path over the longer term.