Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

1,058 New vehicles were sold in November, a decrease of 3.8% m/m and 18.1% y/y. Year-to-date 12,435 new vehicles have been sold, a 19.6% decrease from November last year. On a cumulative 12-month basis 13,486 new vehicles have been sold, the lowest level since March 2013. This represents a decline of 20.9% from November 2016 and a decline of 40.5% from the peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. The trend of slowing vehicle sales continues unabated reflecting the pressures on corporates and individuals in the recessionary environment Namibia finds itself in.

A total of 415 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, down 8.2% m/m and 18.5% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 5,243, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding five years and a 18.8% decline from November 2016. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since March 2012, highlighting the severity of the slowdown.

Commercial vehicle sales display the same trend, declining 20.2% year-to-date and 21.6% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 643 new commercial vehicles were sold in November, which were made up of 564 light-, 30 medium-, and 49 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles. Year to date 7,192 new commercial vehicles have been sold. On a year to date basis light commercial sales have declined by 21.1%, medium commercial sales are down 12.4% and heavy and extra heavy sales have decreased by 8.3%.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales in 2017 with 35.2% of the passenger vehicle market followed by Volkswagen with a 24.9% share. Toyota also remains the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 49.4% market share with Nissan in second place with a 16.6% share. In the medium commercial section of the market Hino leads the pack with a 36.3% market share followed by Iveco at 26.4%. The heavy and extra heavy category is dominated by Scania with 35.7% of new vehicle sales.

The Bottom Line
Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are hovering around 2013 levels. This is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. Tighter credit conditions and the possibility of higher interest rates coupled with indebted consumers have also hampered new vehicle sales. The continued slowdown in commercial vehicle sales remain worrisome as this is an indication of lower capital expenditure by corporates and lower business confidence. It remains unlikely that vehicle sales will recover anytime soon as the current business environment does not show any signs of reprieve.

1,100 New vehicles were sold in October, a decrease of 3.6% m/m and 6.7% y/y. Year-to-date 11,535 new vehicles have been sold, an 18.6% decrease on October last year. On a rolling 12-month basis 13,878 new vehicles have been sold in Namibia, down 20.6% from October 2016, and down 38.8% from peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. New vehicle sales continue to decline on a year-to-date and cumulative basis, reflecting the pressure that individuals and businesses, as well as government, are experiencing in the current economic climate.

A total of 452 new passenger vehicles were sold during October, up 2.0% m/m but down 2.6% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 4,873, down 18.1% compared to the number sold by October last year. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2012. On a year-to-date basis passenger vehicle sales are currently between 2011 and 2012 year-to-date figures for October, highlighting the extent of the slowdown.

Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, down 19.1% year-to-date and 21.9% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 648 new commercial vehicles were sold in October and 6,662 have been sold year-to-date. Light commercial vehicle sales are down 36.1% from their peak, slightly less than the 40.9% that passenger vehicle sales are down. Medium commercial vehicle sales are down 50.1% from their peak, while heavy commercial vehicles are down 46.6% since peaking in December 2015. Total new commercial vehicle sales are down 10.0% m/m, with medium commercial vehicle sales declining 30.8% from last month, light commercial vehicle sales declining 9.8% m/m, and heavy commercial vehicle sales increasing 3.0% m/m.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales with 34.9% of the passenger vehicle market and 48.2% of the light commercial market for the year thus far. Volkswagen holds the second place with 24.6% of passenger vehicle sales, while Nissan takes second place in the light commercial vehicles category with 16.5% of sales this year. Ford retains the third position in both passenger and light commercial new vehicle sales on a year to date basis. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 34.6% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 32.6% of the market share year to date.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are still below 2012 levels. This is a reflection of depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as slowed government spending on new vehicles. Tighter credit conditions have only exacerbated the above conditions. The current interest rate environment remains precarious as inflation is likely to pick up following the depreciation of the rand as well as due to higher US$ oil prices. Should a rate hiking cycle commence consumers will come under further pressure. Household debt to disposable incomes have been rising making consumers more susceptible to interest rate hikes.

1,163 New vehicles were sold in September, an increase of 6.3% m/m, but down 3.6% y/y. Year-to-date 10,435 new vehicles have been sold, a 19.7% on last year. On a rolling 12-month basis 13,957 new vehicles have been sold in Namibia, down 22.8% from September 2016, and down 38.4% from peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. On a calendar year basis 2014 was the peak in total new vehicle sales, with decreases in each subsequent year. Currently 2017 is on track to deliver new vehicle sales similar to numbers last seen in 2012.

A total of 443 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, up 10.8% m/m. Year-to-date passenger sales rose to 4,421, down 19.4% compared to the number sold by September last year. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2012. Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, down 20.0% year-to-date and 23.6% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 720 new commercial vehicles were sold in September and 6,014 have been sold year-to-date. Light commercial vehicle sales are down 35.5% from their peak, slightly less than the 40.8% that passenger vehicle sales are down. Medium commercial vehicle sales are down 50.5% from their peak, while heavy commercial vehicles are down 46.4% since peaking in December 2015.

Outstanding installment credit has contracted on a year-on-year basis in each of the last three months as customers purchase less new vehicles. Credit extension to corporates, a leading economic indicator, continues to slow which points to further economic stagnation which is likely to show in vehicle sales figures leading up to the end of the year. The IJG business climate monitor, while showing some signs of improvement in the economy, continues to be in recessionary territory also pointing to further depressed vehicle sales figures going forward.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales with 35% of the passenger vehicle market and 47.9% of the light commercial market this year. Volkswagen holds the second place with 24.9% of passenger vehicle sales, while Nissan takes second place in the light commercial vehicles category with 16.3% of sales this year. Ford retains the third position in both passenger and light commercial new vehicle sales on a year to date basis. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 34.8% of sales while Scania has 32% of the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market cornered year to date.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are currently below 2012 levels. This is a reflection of depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as slowed government spending on new vehicles. Tighter credit conditions have only exacerbated the above conditions. The current interest rate environment is precarious with South Africa teetering on the edge of a local currency credit ratings downgrade which, should it take place, will see rapid currency depreciation. This will likely be followed by interest rate hikes which, along with higher prices for vehicles, will put further pressure on consumers. However, should positive political outcomes be seen in South Africa, there is scope for currency appreciation and further monetary easing, bringing relief to Namibian consumers too, and kick-starting the economy.