Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

1,163 New vehicles were sold in September, an increase of 6.3% m/m, but down 3.6% y/y. Year-to-date 10,435 new vehicles have been sold, a 19.7% on last year. On a rolling 12-month basis 13,957 new vehicles have been sold in Namibia, down 22.8% from September 2016, and down 38.4% from peak 12-month cumulative number of vehicles sales in April 2015. On a calendar year basis 2014 was the peak in total new vehicle sales, with decreases in each subsequent year. Currently 2017 is on track to deliver new vehicle sales similar to numbers last seen in 2012.

A total of 443 new passenger vehicles were sold during September, up 10.8% m/m. Year-to-date passenger sales rose to 4,421, down 19.4% compared to the number sold by September last year. On a rolling 12-month basis passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since April 2012. Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, down 20.0% year-to-date and 23.6% on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 720 new commercial vehicles were sold in September and 6,014 have been sold year-to-date. Light commercial vehicle sales are down 35.5% from their peak, slightly less than the 40.8% that passenger vehicle sales are down. Medium commercial vehicle sales are down 50.5% from their peak, while heavy commercial vehicles are down 46.4% since peaking in December 2015.

Outstanding installment credit has contracted on a year-on-year basis in each of the last three months as customers purchase less new vehicles. Credit extension to corporates, a leading economic indicator, continues to slow which points to further economic stagnation which is likely to show in vehicle sales figures leading up to the end of the year. The IJG business climate monitor, while showing some signs of improvement in the economy, continues to be in recessionary territory also pointing to further depressed vehicle sales figures going forward.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new vehicle sales with 35% of the passenger vehicle market and 47.9% of the light commercial market this year. Volkswagen holds the second place with 24.9% of passenger vehicle sales, while Nissan takes second place in the light commercial vehicles category with 16.3% of sales this year. Ford retains the third position in both passenger and light commercial new vehicle sales on a year to date basis. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 34.8% of sales while Scania has 32% of the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market cornered year to date.

The Bottom Line

Cumulative vehicle sales continue to contract on a rolling 12-month basis, and year-to-date vehicle sales figures are currently below 2012 levels. This is a reflection of depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as slowed government spending on new vehicles. Tighter credit conditions have only exacerbated the above conditions. The current interest rate environment is precarious with South Africa teetering on the edge of a local currency credit ratings downgrade which, should it take place, will see rapid currency depreciation. This will likely be followed by interest rate hikes which, along with higher prices for vehicles, will put further pressure on consumers. However, should positive political outcomes be seen in South Africa, there is scope for currency appreciation and further monetary easing, bringing relief to Namibian consumers too, and kick-starting the economy.

New vehicle sales of 1,094 units were recorded in August, with sales falling by 19.9% from the 1,366 new vehicles sold in August 2016. On a m/m basis, new vehicle sales fell by 18.7%, with August recording 252 less in sales than July. Year to date, 9,272 vehicles have been sold, 21.4% less than sales recorded in the corresponding period of 2016. Of the 9,272 vehicles sold this year, 3,978 were passenger vehicles, 4,848 were light commercial vehicles, and 446 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

Passenger vehicle sales fell by 24.5% y/y, to 400 vehicles, while commercial vehicle sales have fell by 17.0% y/y. Of the 694 commercial vehicles sold in August: 650 were classified as light, 12 as medium and 32 as heavy. Heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 25.6% y/y. The highest volume for this calendar year so far, was the sales in June of 83 units, which provided some optimism as increased capital spending pointed toward improving business confidence. Light commercial vehicles sales make up the bulk of this category’s sales, reporting a decline of 15.7% m/m and falling 15.1% y/y.

On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales remain under pressure, contracting by 24.4% y/y. Instalment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, has slowed considerably. Although, instalment credit increased by 0.5% m/m in July, this followed six months of consecutive m/m declines, bringing the annual growth to -1.4% y/y.

Year to date, Toyota and Volkswagen continue to maintain their strong hold on the passenger vehicle market. Based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 36% and 25% of the market respectively. They were followed by Ford and Mercedes at 7% and 4% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market continues to be shared by several competitors. Toyota also remains the leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 47% of the market, followed by Nissan at 16%. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12% and 9% of the number of light commercial vehicles sold in 2017.

Hino leads in medium commercial vehicles with 33% of the market, with Iveco following with 27%. In the heavy and extra heavy category, Scania and Mercedes have sold the most vehicles, claiming 29% and 17% of the market respectively. UD Trucks came in at third, with 14% of the number of vehicles sold in this category in 2017.

The Bottom Line

Overall vehicle sales are under pressure and have been since late 2015. The Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) growth figures prove testament to waning consumer and business confidence and an already stretched consumer as instalment credit, mainly used to finance capital goods, remains sluggish. The amendments to the Credit Agreement Act had a significant effect on consumer spending as well. Bearing in mind that government is still in its fiscal consolidation cycle with no with little to no plans to increase capital expenditure in sight. Vehicle sales showed signs of slight improvement the previous three months before slumping by 18.7% m/m, and is likely to remain subdued going forward.

Vehicle sales of 1,346 units was recorded in July, with overall sales falling by 12.8% from the 1,544 new vehicles sold in July 2016, and a 10.3% m/m increase on the 1,220 vehicles sold in June. Year to date, 8,178 vehicles have been sold, 22% less than the corresponding period in 2016. Of the 8,178 vehicles sold this year, 3,578 were passenger vehicles, 4,198 were light commercial vehicles, and 402 were medium or heavy commercial vehicles.

Passenger car sales have decreased by 15.7% y/y, to 533 cars, while commercial vehicle sales have declined by 10.9% y/y. Of the 813 commercial vehicles sold in July: 771 were classified as light, 12 as medium and 30 as heavy. Heavy commercial vehicle sales contracted by 50.8% y/y after showing an uptick y/y of 66.0% in June, which did provide some optimism as increased capital spending pointed toward improving business confidence. Light commercial vehicles was the standout performer this month, exhibiting a positive monthly increase in sales of 29.6%, although still down 8.1% y/y.

On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales continue to wane, contracting by 23.8% y/y. Installment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, has slowed considerably. Instalment credit advances contracted by 0.7% y/y in June, entering negative territory for the first time in our database.

Year to date Toyota and Volkswagen continue to hold a strong market share in the passenger vehicle market based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 36% and 26% of the market respectively. They were followed by Ford and Mercedes at 6% and 4% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market continues to be shared by several competitors. Toyota also remains the leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 47% of the market, followed by Nissan at 17%. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12% and 9% of the number of light commercial vehicles sold in 2017.

Hino leads in medium commercial vehicles with 31% of the market, with Iveco marginally less with 30%. In the heavy and extra heavy category, Scania and Mercedes have sold the most vehicles, claiming 29% and 18% of the market respectively. UD Trucks came in at third, with 15% of the number of vehicles sold in this category in 2017.

The Bottom Line

Overall vehicle sales remained sluggish in July, continuing on almost the same trend as in 2016, showing some positive signs before trending downwards midway through the year. Continued fiscal tightening, evident through lower government spending on capital assets, slower economic growth, waning consumer discretionary income as well as the credit agreement act have been the main impediments on new vehicles sold. Positive heavy vehicle sales figures in June have this month been supported by encouraging sales data for light commercial vehicles, though overall vehicle sales for 2017 remain under pressure. While there has been a sizable increase in total vehicle sales since April this year, year-to-date and year-on-year data is still depressed compared to previous years.