Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 926 new vehicles were sold in April, a 1.1% m/m contraction from the 936 vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, 3,291 vehicles have been sold of which 1,582 were passenger vehicles, 1,543 light commercial vehicles, and 166 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, new vehicle sales increased by 1.1% m/m to 11,405 new vehicles sold as at the end of April 2019. On an annual basis, twelve-month cumulative new vehicle sales continued on a downward trend, contracting by 8.2% from the 12,423 new vehicles sold over the comparable period a year ago.

New passenger vehicle sales increased by 10.0% m/m in April, to 464 units. On an annual basis an increase of 29.9% was recorded as April saw an increase in monthly passenger vehicle sales from March for the first time since 1998. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,582 units, reflecting lower cumulative sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 10.8% decline from the year-to-date figure recorded in April 2018. Twelve-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales rose 2.2% m/m, but continued to slide on an annual basis, contracting 6.9% y/y.

A total of 462 new commercial vehicles were sold in April, contractions of 10.1% m/m and 15.3% y/y. Of the 462 commercial vehicles sold in April, 408 were classified as light vehicles, 16 as medium vehicles and 38 as heavy vehicles. On a year-on-year basis for the month of April light commercial sales rose by 4.3%, medium commercial sales fell by 36.0%, and heavy and extra heavy sales grew by 26.7%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 9.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 2.2% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 4.3% y/y. While medium commercial vehicles have recorded growth in twelve-month cumulative sales over the last seven months, the light and heavy segments of the market continue to see lower volumes sold than in 2018, already a low base. This is an indication that businesses are yet to increase capital deployment in any meaningful way as business confidence remains under pressure.

Volkswagen once again leads the passenger vehicle sales segment with 31.6% of the segment sales year-to-date. Toyota dropped to second place by this measure with 30.3% of the market-share as at the end of April. Kia, Hyundai, Mercedes and Ford each command around 5.0% of the market in the passenger vehicles segment, leaving the remaining 17.7% of the market to other brands.

Toyota, with a strong market-share of 63.3% ytd, commands the light commercial vehicles sales segment. Ford remains in second position in the segment with 9.3% of the market, while Nissan makes up third place with 6.5% of the year-to-date sales. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 40.7% ytd of sales, while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 31.8% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales continue to point to low consumer and business confidence. Anecdotal evidence, as well as Bidvest Namibia automotive division results over the last two years, show struggling dealerships. After eleven quarters of largely stagnant economic activity in Namibia it is hardly surprising that confidence remains low. At present there are few signs that the business cycle is turning, with a global slowdown providing headwinds to an outlook already weighed down by drought. At present there are few prospects for stimulus as government continues to run large budget deficits, with debt largely funding consumption. One of the few levers we believe is available to government at present is policy clarity and growth friendly policy. Clarity on empowerment and investment policy is crucial in 2019, as well as SOE reform.

A total of 936 new vehicles were sold in March, representing a 24.6% m/m increase from the 751 vehicles sold in February. It should be noted that March vehicle sales have a seasonal effect of being slightly higher due to it being the end of the tax year. Year-to-date, 2,365 vehicles have been sold of which 1,118 were passenger vehicles, 1,135 light commercial vehicles, and 112 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. This is a 20.8% decline in the total number of new vehicles sold during the first quarter of 2019 when compared to 2018. On a twelve month-cumulative basis, vehicle sales continue to wane with a total of 11,285 new vehicles sold as at March 2019, down 10.3% from the 12,577 sold over the comparable period a year ago, and the lowest since November 2010.

422 New passenger vehicles were sold during March, increasing by 19.2% m/m. From a year-on-year perspective however, March new passenger vehicle sales were 16.8% lower than the 507 units sold in March 2018. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 1,118, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 20.9% decline from the first quarter of 2018.

A total of 514 new commercial vehicles were sold in March, representing an increase of 29.5% m/m, but a contraction of 14.8% y/y. Of the 514 commercial vehicles sold in March, 483 were classified as light, 15 as medium and 16 as heavy. On an annual basis, light commercial sales fell by 12.8%, medium commercial sales grew by 7.1% while heavy and extra heavy sales have contracted by 54.3%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 11.7% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 13.1% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 6.3% y/y. This is the sixth consecutive month that medium commercial sales have showed growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis.

Toyota retook the lead from Volkswagen in March in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Toyota claimed 31.6% of the market, followed closely by Volkswagen with 28.3% of the market. They were followed by Kia and Hyundai with 5.9% and 5.5% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 67.8% market share, with Ford in second place with a 9.8% market share. Volkswagen and Isuzu claimed 5.3% and 4.5%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2019. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 37.2% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 29.0% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

New vehicle sales remained depressed in March as 12-month cumulative new vehicle sales have declined by 10.3% y/y to 11,285 at the end of March, representing a decline of 50.2% from the peak of 22,664 new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015. Government’s continued commitment to fiscal consolidation does have a direct effect on the demand for new vehicles. Government vehicle expenditure has fallen from N$1.02 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year to N$22.2 million in 2017/18. In his Budget Review Speech last month, finance minister Calle Schlettwein left the revised vehicle budget unchanged at N$11.9 million from the mid-term budget tabled in October last year. N$1.4 million is allocated to the Auditor General’s office for vehicles, N$10.0 million to Health and Social Services and N$500,000 to the Justice ministry. For the 2019/20 year, N$10.0 million is allocated to Health and Social Services for vehicles. These figures dim the prospects for new vehicle sales in the short- to medium-term.

741 New vehicles were sold in February, an increase of 11.3% m/m from the 666 vehicles sold in January. This is however 27.7% lower than the 1,025 new vehicles sold in February 2018. Two months into 2019, 1,407 new vehicles have been sold of which 674 were passenger vehicles, 652 light commercial vehicles, and 81 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. The first two months of 2018 saw 1,876 new vehicles sold. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,437 new vehicles were sold as at February 2019 representing a contraction of 11.2% from the 12,873 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 344 new passenger vehicles were sold during February, increasing by 4.2% from the 330 passenger vehicles sold in January. On a year-on-year basis however, February new passenger vehicle sales were 31.6% lower than the 503 vehicles sold a year ago. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales rose to 674, reflecting lower annual sales than the preceding 8 years, and a 25.7% decline from February 2018. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales are at their lowest level since January 2011, highlighting the severity of the slowdown in sales.

Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 24.4% year-to-date and 10.7% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 397 new commercial vehicles were sold in February, representing an increase of 18.2% m/m, but a contraction of 23.9% y/y. 351 Light commercial vehicles, 14 medium commercial vehicles, and 32 heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales have dropped 27.5% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales fell 26.3% y/y, and heavy and extra heavy sales rose 68.4% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 11.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 10.1% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 2.9% y/y. This is the fifth consecutive month that medium commercial sales have showed positive growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis.

During February, Volkswagen overtook Toyota in terms of year-to-date market share of new passenger vehicles sold. Volkswagen claimed 30.7% of the market, followed closely by Toyota with 28.3% of the market. They were followed by Ford and Mercedes with 6.5% and 6.1% of the market respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 68.4% market share, with Ford in second place with an 8.3% market share. Volkswagen and Isuzu claimed 6.6% and 4.4%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2019. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 35.7% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 34.0% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

New vehicle sales remained dismal in February as 12-month cumulative new vehicle sales have declined by 11.2% y/y to 11,437 at the end of February. While historical data indicates that new vehicle sales typically pick up somewhat in March, we are of the view that the increase in sales for the month will be small as both consumer and business confidence remain depressed and as such, the prospects for new vehicle sales remain dim in the short- to medium-term. Recent new vehicle sales figures suggest that vehicle owners are holding on to the vehicles they already own or purchasing second hand and imported vehicles.