Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

732 New vehicles were sold in December, down 38.2% m/m from the 1,185 vehicles sold in November, and a decrease of 11.3% y/y from the 825 new vehicles sold in December 2017. Year-to-date 11,875 vehicles have been sold, a 9.0% contraction from December last year and the lowest annual vehicle sales figure since December 2010. Of the 11,875 new vehicles sold during the year, 5,067 were passenger vehicles, 6,147 light commercial vehicles, and 661 medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

A total of 312 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, down 20.8% m/m and 15.4% y/y. 5,067 passenger vehicle were sold in total in 2018, an 8.2% decline from 2017 and lower annual sales than the preceding seven years. Passenger vehicle sales made up 42.7% of the total number of new vehicles sold during 2018, broadly in line with the trend over the last 4 years.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 420 units in December, a 46.9% m/m, and 7.9% y/y contraction. During the month 382 light commercial vehicles, 11 medium commercial vehicles, and 27 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales have declined by 5.0%, medium commercial sales rose by 37.5%, and heavy and extra heavy sales have declined by 41.3%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 10.2% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 8.6% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales fell 8.3% y/y.

Toyota continued to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018, claiming 33.4% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.5% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.8% and 5.0% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the commercial vehicle space in 2018 with 56.1% market share, with Nissan in second place with an 18.8% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.2% and 5.1% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino lead the medium commercial vehicle category with 39.4% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 35.5% of the market share during the year.

The Bottom Line

The outlook for new vehicle sales remains bleak with the cumulative number of new vehicle sales for the year amounting to 11,875, a decline of 9.0% from the cumulative number of vehicles sold in 2017 and a 47.6% contraction from the peak of 22,664 new vehicle sales recorded in April 2015. The fact that the 12-month cumulative figure is hovering around 2011 levels is a consequence of the recessionary environment we find ourselves in, characterised by depressed business and consumer confidence, as well as lower government spending. December new vehicle sales have historically been low when compared to most other months as people go on holiday and dealerships close, but 2018’s December figure was the lowest since 2008, pointing to the ongoing impact of the current recession on demand and investment.

A total of 1,185 new vehicles were sold in November, representing a 30.9% m/m increase from the 905 vehicles sold in October, and a 17.3% y/y increase from the 1,010 new vehicles sold in November 2017. Year-to-date 11,143 vehicles have been sold of which 4,755 were passenger vehicles, 5,765 light commercial vehicles, and 623 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,969 new vehicles were sold as at 30 November 2018, representing a contraction of 9.9% from the 13,279 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 394 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, a decrease of 1.3% m/m and 1.0% y/y from the 398 passenger vehicles sold in November 2017. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales amounted to 4,755, down 7.7% compared to the number of new passenger vehicles sold by November last year. The rolling 12-month vehicles sales figures continue to reflect weakness in the number of passenger vehicles sold, declining 8.1% y/y as at November 2018.

791 New commercial vehicles were sold in November, representing a 56.3% m/m and 29.2% y/y increase. 716 light commercial vehicles, 20 medium commercial vehicles, and 55 heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales rose by 33.1%, medium commercial sales decreased 20.0% and heavy and extra heavy sales rose by 12.2%. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 12.4% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 1.7% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose 1.9% y/y.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018 based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 33.8% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.6% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.7% and 4.9%, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with 56.1% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 19.5% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.0% and 4.9% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 40.9% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 35.6% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The cumulative number of new vehicle sales continued to contract on a 12-month basis, amounting to 11,143 at the end of November. Year-on-year, the 12-month cumulative number of new vehicles sold has contracted by 9.9% from the 11,969 cumulative sales recorded in November 2017. The prospects for new vehicle sales remain dim in the short- to medium-term as government remains committed to fiscal consolidation. Instalment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, continues its contracting trend, declining by 6.9% y/y at the end of October, a further indication that new vehicle sales are likely to remain subdued going forward.

905 New vehicles were sold in October, representing a 7.8% decrease from the 982 vehicles sold in September, and an 8.7% decrease from October 2017 when 991 new vehicles were sold. Year-to-date 9,957 vehicles have been sold of which 4,361 were passenger vehicles, 5,049 light commercial vehicles, and 547 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 11,793 new vehicles were sold as at 31 October 2018, which represents a contraction of 13.1% from the 13,565 sold over the comparable period a year ago. New vehicle sales are thus still in decline despite the low base set in 2016 and 2017.

A total of 399 new passenger vehicles were sold during October, increasing by 19.8% m/m but declining by 2.0% y/y. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales rose to 4,361, down 8.3% y/y. On a rolling 12-month basis new passenger vehicle sales were down 47.8% from the peak in April 2015.

Commercial vehicle sales reflect a similar picture, declining by 13.4% year-to-date and 15.4% y/y on a rolling 12-month basis. A total of 506 new commercial vehicles were sold in October, representing a contraction of 22.0% m/m and 13.4% y/y. 442 Light commercial vehicles, 18 medium commercial vehicles, and 46 heavy commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales have dropped 16.8% y/y, while medium commercial sales rose 5.9% y/y, and heavy and extra heavy sales rose by 27.8% y/y. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales dropped 16.9% y/y, while medium commercial vehicle sales rose 0.83% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicle sales rose 0.2% y/y. This is the first month since November 2015 that medium commercial sales have showed positive growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis, and the first month since February 2016 that heavy commercial sales have showed positive growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis. The positive growth is negligible at this point but it is possible that a floor in medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales has been found as companies that have been sweating assets start to replace those vehicles.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018 based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 34.2% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 28.2% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.8% and 4.8% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several competitors.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with a 57.8% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 17.3% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.5% and 5.0%, respectively, of the number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2018. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 42.4% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 36.8% of the market share year-to-date.

The Bottom Line

The cumulative number of new vehicle sales continued to contract on a 12-month basis, amounting to 11,793 at the end of October. Government’s continued commitment to fiscal consolidation does have a direct effect on the demand for new vehicles. Government vehicle expenditure has fallen from N$1.02 billion in the 2014/15 fiscal year to N$22.2 million in 2017/18. In his Mid-Term Budget Review Speech last month, finance minister Calle Schlettwein left the revised vehicle budget unchanged at N$11.9 million from the budget tabled in March. N$1.4 million is allocated to the Auditor General’s office for vehicles, N$10.0 million to Health and Social Services and N$500,000 to the Justice ministry. For the 2019/20 year, N$10.0 million is allocated to Health and Social Services for vehicles. These figures dim the prospects for new vehicle sales in the short- to medium-term.