On a
year-to-date basis, Toyota maintained its dominance in the light commercial
vehicle space with a 53.8% market share, Ford climbed to second place with
13.5% of the market, followed by Nissan, with a market share of 13.4%. Mercedes
leads the medium commercial vehicle segment with 32.0% of sales year-to-date. Scania
remained number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment
with 25.5% of the market share year-to-date.
June was a respectable month for new
vehicle sales, despite a raging third wave of Covid-19 infections in the
country, coupled with the introduction of new lockdown restrictions. An average
of 379 new passenger vehicles were sold per month in the first half of 2021, which
is well above the average of 254 in the comparable period of 2020, but still
trails slightly below the average of 411 in the first 6 months of 2019. On the
commercial front, total commercial vehicle sales in the first half of the year
are 31.7% higher than the comparable period in 2020, with light and medium
commercial vehicle sales increasing by 25.6% and 22.0% year-on-year,
respectively, while heavy commercial vehicle sales recorded the largest
increase of 114.4% y/y. Despite these increases, the commercial sector lags
well behind the comparable period’s 10-year pre-Covid-19 average (2010-2019)
when total new commercial vehicle sales were 50.1% higher than they are now.
Overall, this reflects a long path to recovery in the commercial sector.
May observed 792 new vehicle sales, an
increase of 4.9% m/m from the 755 vehicles sold in April. As at 31 May, 4,052
new vehicles were sold for the year, of which 1,849 were passenger vehicles, 1,887
light commercial vehicles, and 316 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. By
comparison, the first five months of 2020 saw 2,750 new vehicles sold. On a
twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 8,914 new vehicles were sold as at May
2021, representing a 1.1% expansion from the 8,820 sold over the comparable
period a year ago, though 22.9% lower than at May 2019.
A total
of 360 new passenger vehicles were sold during May, a slight uptick of 0.6% from
the 358 passenger vehicles sold in April. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales
rose to 1,849, 56.0% higher than during the same period in 2020, but 11.7%
lower than at May 2019. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger vehicle sales rose
to 3,874, 6.0% higher than in May 2020, and 23.2% lower than in May 2019.
A total of 432 new commercial vehicles
were sold in May, representing an increase of 8.8% m/m. 371 Light commercial
vehicles, 15 medium commercial vehicles, and 46 heavy and extra heavy
commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales rose
15.2% m/m, medium commercial vehicle sales posted a second consecutive month of
declines, dropping 25.0% m/m, and heavy commercial vehicle sales decreased by 16.4%
m/m. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales have
declined by 2.1% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 30.2% y/y, and heavy
commercial vehicles entered positive territories for the first time since
April, last year, increasing by 10.8% y/y.
Although
Volkswagen continues to lead in the new passenger vehicle sales segment, its
market share declined from 34.7% last month to 31.2% of sales year-to-date,
followed by Toyota whose market share rose to 25.3% from 24.9% a month ago. Kia
and Suzuki continued to trail, with 8.7% and 6.2% of the market, respectively, leaving
the remaining 18.1% of the market to other brands.
On a year-to-date
basis, Toyota continued as the leader in the light commercial vehicle space
with a 54.0% market share, Nissan maintained second place with a 13.5% market
share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 13.1% and 5.8%, respectively, of the number of
light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2021. Mercedes surpassed Hino as the
leader in the medium commercial vehicle segment with 33.3% of sales
year-to-date. Scania remained number one in the heavy and extra-heavy
commercial vehicle segment with 23.8% of the market share year-to-date.
The Bottom Line
The number of total new vehicle sales has
ticked up every month this year on a year-on-year basis, all but confirming an
ongoing recovery in vehicle sales. This is further evidenced by average monthly
vehicle sales for 2021 standing at 810, compared to the 634 in 2020.
Furthermore, the cumulative 12-month new passenger vehicle sales have been on
the rise on a month-on-month basis for 6 consecutive months, indicating
improvements in consumer confidence. Despite the glimmers of recovery, total
vehicle sales still lag the pre-Covid-19 era, when an average of 868 sales were
made per month in 2019. Interestingly, monthly passenger vehicle sales for 2021
have averaged 370, slightly below the average of 380 recorded in 2019. This
indicates that it is the commercial sector that has been impacted the hardest
by the pandemic and continues to struggle. This year’s monthly average
commercial vehicle sales are 9.6% lower than an already low base of 488 in
2019, which indicates muted activity in Namibia’s commercial sector, as few new
businesses enter the scene, while existing businesses rely on their existing
vehicles instead of expanding their fleet.
755 new vehicles were sold in April, a decrease
of 17.9% m/m from the 919 vehicles sold in March. As at 30 April, 3,260 new
vehicles were sold for the year, of which 1,489 were passenger vehicles, 1,516
light commercial vehicles, and 255 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. By
comparison, the first four months of 2020 saw 2,270 new vehicles sold. 2021 is
thus off to a better start compared to last year, although vehicle sales were
adversely affected by strict lockdown restrictions during April last year. Due
to car dealerships being closed last year April as a result of the strict
lockdown measures, year-on-year comparisons are somewhat meaningless. On a
twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 8,601 new vehicles were sold as at April
2021, representing a contraction of 8.5% from the 9,398 sold over the
comparable period a year ago.
A total
of 358 new passenger vehicles were sold during April, decreasing by 2.2% from
the 366 passenger vehicles sold in March. Year-to-date, passenger vehicle sales
rose to 1,489, 55.8% higher than during the same period in 2020, mostly as a
result of the low sales in April 2020. On a rolling 12-month basis, passenger
vehicle sales rose to 3,743, 5.0% lower than in April 2020.
A total of 397 new commercial vehicles
were sold in April, representing a decrease of 28.2% m/m. 322 Light commercial
vehicles, 20 medium commercial vehicles, and 55 heavy and extra heavy
commercial vehicles were sold during the month. Light commercial vehicle sales fell
34.4% m/m, medium commercial vehicle sales dropped 16.7% m/m and heavy
commercial vehicle sales increased by 44.7% m/m. On a twelve-month cumulative basis,
light commercial vehicle sales have declined by 10.0% y/y, medium commercial
vehicles fell by 32.8% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles dropped 7.7% y/y.
Volkswagen
continues its dominance in the new passenger vehicle sales segment with 34.7%
of the segment sales year-to-date, followed by Toyota with 24.9% of the market
share. The two top brands maintained their large gap over the rest of the
market with Kia and Suzuki following with 6.9% and 5.3% of the market,
respectively, leaving the remaining 28.2% of the market to other brands.
On a
year-to-date basis, Toyota continued as the leader in the light commercial
vehicle space with a 53.4% market share, Nissan maintained second place with a
13.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.0% and 6.7%, respectively, of the
number of light commercial vehicles sold thus far in 2021. Hino leads in the stagnant
medium commercial vehicle segment with 26.1% of sales year-to-date, followed by
Mercedes, with 23.9% market share. Scania remained number one in the heavy and
extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 27.6% of the market share
year-to-date.
The Bottom Line
Despite tallying the second lowest total
vehicle sales thus far in 2021, the 755 total sales are still well above the
monthly average of 634 sales in 2020. The cumulative 12-month total vehicle
sales rose for the fourth consecutive month since December 2020. This seems to
reflect a gradual recovery in the industry. Although vehicle sales have a minor
impact on the overall Namibian economy through its relatively small GDP multiplier,
it does reflect overall consumer and business confidence. New passenger vehicle
sales have been rather steady, revolving around its mean of 372 passenger
vehicle sales per month, slightly below 2019 levels of 380, but well above the 291-monthly
average in 2020 (excluding April 2020.) Overall, this reflects a recovery in
consumer confidence towards pre-Covid-19 levels. However, on the commercial
side, uncertainty remains as commercial vehicle sales have been volatile, but
remains above average levels in 2020, although still lagging pre-Covid-19
levels. This indicates a slower recovery rate in optimism in the commercial
sector compared to consumers.
