Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

714 new vehicles were sold in October, the second lowest monthly sales figures for 2021. This comes after 767 vehicles were sold in September. Fewer passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles were sold in October than in September. Only the number of medium commercial vehicles sold increased, from 16 in September to 22 in October. Year-to-date, a total of 7,935 new vehicles have been sold. Despite the low monthly sales figure, new vehicle sales increased by 27.3% y/y in October. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 19.7% to 9,339.

356 new passenger vehicles were sold in October, 24 fewer than in September. This translates to a 6.3% m/m decrease, but a 19.5% y/y increase. On a 12-month cumulative basis, new passenger vehicle sales have increased by 38.0% y/y to 4,414. Despite being a somewhat weaker month for passenger vehicle sales, October’s sale figure is not far off the average monthly sales figure for the past 12 months. 

Total commercial vehicle sales declined by 7.5% m/m but increased by 36.1% y/y in October. The biggest month-on-month decline in both absolute number and percentage terms came in the heavy commercial vehicles category. The 41 heavy commercial vehicles sold is 26 fewer than in September, representing a 38.8% m/m decrease in sales. That said, heavy commercial vehicle sales are up 46.4% y/y. Light commercial vehicle sales followed a similar pattern. 295 light commercial vehicle sales in October translates to a 3.0% m/m decrease, but 35.9% y/y increase in sales.  22 medium commercial vehicles were sold in October, an increase of 37.5% m/m and 22.2% y/y.

Toyota and Volkswagen remain the pre-eminent brands in the passenger vehicle market. Toyota’s year-to-date market share is 29% and Volkswagen’s is 28%. To illustrate their dominance, even if the market shares of the next four largest brands are combined (Kia, Suzuki, Hyundai and Haval, in that order) their stake is still smaller than that of Volkswagen.    

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota has the largest market share of light commercial vehicles. Toyota’s market share in the category declined marginally from 54% in September to 53% in October. The medium commercial vehicles sector remains more competitive, with both Hino and Mercedes taking a 30% share of the market. Scania, Volvo and Man are the biggest players in the heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market, with 25%, 19% and 15% market shares respectively.  

The Bottom Line  

October 2021 was a below average month for both passenger and commercial vehicle sales in Namibia, all but confirming that 2021 will be the second worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade. This did not necessarily appear to be the case at the beginning of the year. In the first two months of 2021 more new vehicles were sold than in the first two months of 2019. Then the figures started to diverge. Global headwinds in the form of supply chain bottlenecks and semiconductor shortages interacted with domestic lockdowns through-out the year to effectively drag down sales during 2021. Finally, as December usually sees below yearly-average vehicle sales, regardless of the underlying health of the economy, there is even less chance that new vehicle sales in 2021 will rise to, or past, 2019 levels.

767 new vehicles were sold in September, a near identical number to the 762 sold in August. This brings the total number of new vehicle sales in 2021 to 7,221. On a year-on-year basis, new vehicle sales declined by 12.2%. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 11.8% to 9,186. September is usually a better month for new vehicle purchases. In fact, 767 represents the smallest number of new cars sold in the month of September over the past decade, lower even than 2020’s September figure. As such, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for car sales in the past decade.

380 new passenger vehicles were sold in September, a 12.4% increase from the 338 sold in August and a 36.7% increase from this time last year. Year-to-date, the sale of new passenger vehicles increased by 51.2% y/y. On a 12-month cumulative basis, sales have increased by 33.6% y/y to 4,356. There is a distinct upward trend in the 12-month cumulative sales figures as it starts to shed the historically low sales numbers from 2020. If this modest upward trend continues there is a good chance that we will see 12-month cumulative sales figure reach late 2019 values by the end of 2021.

Total commercial vehicle sales fell by 8.7% m/m and 35.1% y/y in September. The biggest decline came in the light commercial vehicles category with sales falling by 14.1% m/m and 43.4% y/y to 304, the lowest monthly sales figure for the year. 16 medium commercial vehicles were sold in September, a 6.7% y/y increase but identical to the previous month’s figure. Lastly, 67 heavy commercial vehicles were sold, a 24.1% m/m increase and 52.3% y/y increase. On a 12-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales decrease by 5.7% y/y and medium commercial vehicle sales decreased by 10.6% y/y, while heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 37.4% y/y.    

Volkswagen and Toyota continue to dominate the market for passenger vehicles, with each maintaining about a 30% share of the market in 2021. Given the ingrained popularity of these two brands it is unlikely that another car maker will be able to displace them in the short- to medium-term. Kia, Hyundai and Suzuki have market shares of 9%, 6% and 5% respectively. 

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota is the biggest seller of light commercial vehicles. They have a 54% share of the market so far in 2021. Mercedes is the main player in the medium commercial vehicles market with a market share of 32%. The German carmaker also has a 14% market share in the heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market. Scania has the largest market share in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market with 24%.  

The Bottom Line  

In the context of 2021 September was an average month for vehicle sales in Namibia. The sale of passenger vehicles increased month-on-month and sales of commercial vehicles decreased, all but balancing each other out. While new vehicle sales remain generally sluggish, Namibia’s situation is not unique. Car sales are down in Europe and the US as the global shortage of semiconductors rolls on. However, Namibia’s declines are best explained by consumers not being able to afford new vehicles and corporates not replacing their fleets.

In August 764 new vehicles were sold, a 4.5% m/m decrease from the 800 sold in July, bringing the total number of vehicle sales in 2021 to 6,457. Total new vehicle sales have declined for the second month running. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 14.1% y/y to 9,296. However, it is the historically low base of 2020’s new vehicle sales, rather than exceptional sales growth in 2021, that explains the relatively high  12-month cumulative sales increase. On a year-on-year basis, new vehicle sales rose 30.4% in August. All told, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade.

340 new passenger vehicles were sold in August, a 12.6% m/m decrease from the 389 sold in July. Year-on-year passenger vehicle sales increased by 70.9%. Year-to-date vehicle sales have increased by 53.4%. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of passenger vehicles sold increased by 28.8% in August to 4,257. However, the equivalent 2019 figure is 4,678, meaning that while new passenger vehicle sales have ticked up from 2020 lows, the 2019 benchmark is yet to be reached.

Commercial vehicle sales increased by 3.2% m/m to 424 in August. New commercial vehicle sales increased by 9.3% y/y. 354 light and 16 medium commercial vehicles were sold in August, a 5.9% m/m decrease and 23.1% m/m increase respectively. 54 heavy commercial vehicles were sold, more than double the amount sold in July. On a 12-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales increased by 2.8% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 15.2% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles increased by 27.7% y/y.

Volkswagen and Toyota now have an all but equal split of the market for passenger vehicles in 2021, with Volkswagen taking 29% and Toyota 28%. Kia solidified its position as the next largest player in the market, marginally upping its share to 9%. Hyundai and Suzuki round off the top 5 with 6% and 5% passenger vehicle market share respectively.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota remains the biggest seller of light commercial vehicles with a 55% share of the market. Ford comes in second at 13%. Mercedes has taken 33% of the market for medium commercial vehicles, followed closely by Hino with 31%. The heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market is the most competitive of the vehicle markets. Scania currently has a 22% market share and Volvo has 19%.

The Bottom Line

August was another sluggish month for vehicle sales in Namibia. Despite a marginal increase in the number of commercial vehicles sold compared to June and July’s figures, a dip in passenger vehicle sales cancelled out any overall vehicle sales gains that might have been made. Global automotive production remains under significant strain as variable demand and a well-documented shortage of semiconductors slow production. The extent to which these supplier-facing costs are passed down to the Namibian consumer is an open question. So long as the automotive market remains sufficiently competitive prices of new vehicles should not increase drastically.