Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 705 new vehicles were sold in January, which is 29 fewer than were sold in December, but represents a 1.7% y/y increase from the 693 new vehicles sold in January 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 9,440 new vehicles were sold up to the end of January 2022, representing an increase of 23.7% from the 7,633 new vehicles sold over the same 12-month period a year ago. 2022 is thus off a somewhat better start than January 2021, however, new vehicle sales remain sluggish.

404 New passenger vehicles were sold during January, an increase of 11.6% m/m from the 362 sold in December, and 14.1% higher y/y from the 354 new passenger vehicles sold in January 2021. On a rolling 12-month basis, new passenger vehicle sales rose 38.6% y/y at the end of January, although the figure is from a very low base. 12-month cumulative passenger vehicle sales were down 53.9% from the peak in April 2015.

Commercial vehicle sales declined to 301 units in January, representing a contraction of 19.1% m/m and 11.2% y/y. During the month 266 light commercial vehicles, 5 medium commercial vehicles, and 30 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. On a year-on-year basis, light commercial sales fell by 11.6% y/y, medium commercial vehicles contracted by 44.4% y/y, and heavy and extra heavy vehicle sales grew by 3.4% y/y. Encouragingly, all categories have recorded growth on a twelve-month cumulative basis with light commercial vehicle sales increasing by 8.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicles rising by 19.2% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales growing by 27.3% y/y. 

Toyota started the year off on a strong foot with a 37.6% market share of new passenger vehicles sold, followed by Volkswagen with a 21.0% market share. They were followed by Kia and Suzuki who each had a 7.7% and 5.9% market share, respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market was shared by several other competitors.

Toyota also started the year off with a solid grip on the light commercial vehicle market with a 56.4% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 11.3% market share. Volkswagen and Ford claimed 7.5% and 6.0% of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold during the month, respectively. Hino was number one in the medium commercial vehicle category with 40.0% of sales, while Mercedes, UD Trucks and Volvo Trucks collectively led the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment, each with a 16.7% market share during the month.

The Bottom Line  

New vehicle sales started the year off stronger than the first month of the prior three years, but not materially so. As pointed out in last month’s report, the growth has largely been driven by a rebound in new passenger vehicle sales, with total commercial vehicles sales still hovering around 2009 levels. The relatively strong heavy commercial vehicle sales are however encouraging as it suggests that some fleets are being upgraded indicating business optimism. While we do expect to see new vehicle sales come in slightly higher than the prior two years as the economy starts recovering, we expect overall sales to remain sluggish and a far cry from the levels seen in 2014 – 2016.

A total of 734 new vehicles were sold in December, which is 21 vehicles fewer than were sold in November but represents a 4.3% y/y increase from the 704 new vehicles sold in December 2020. Year-to-date 9,428 new vehicles have been sold, which is 23.9% higher than during 2020, but 9.5% lower than in 2019. As the chart below indicates, this makes 2021 the second-worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade. Of the 9,428 new vehicles sold during the year, 4,484 were passenger vehicles, 4,178 were light commercial vehicles, and 766 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

362 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, representing a 4.5% m/m contraction, but an 8.4% y/y increase. 4,484 new passenger vehicles were sold in 2021, a significant increase of 39.7% from 2020. Encouragingly, new passenger vehicle sales for the year were just 1.8% lower than in 2019, indicating that passenger vehicle sales have more or less rebounded to their pre-pandemic level, although this is still a far cry from the sales figures seen during 2013-2015.

A total of 372 commercial vehicles were sold in December, five fewer than in November but two more than in December 2020. During the month, 315 light commercial vehicles, 18 medium and 39 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. For the year, light commercial vehicle sales rose by 8.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales increased by 18.0% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales climbed by 56.0% y/y. Thus, while all three commercial vehicle sales categories have rebounded from the low sales figures recorded in 2020, heavy commercial vehicle sales have encouragingly recorded the best annual sales since 2015.

Toyota led the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2021, claiming 30.1% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 26.6% share. They were followed by Kia and Suzuki at 9.0% and 5.9%, respectively. The only other manufacturer that managed to breach the 5% market share mark was Hyundai with 5.6% of the market, leaving the remaining 22.8% of the market to other brands.

Toyota dominated the light commercial vehicle space in 2021 with a 52.8% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 12.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.6% and 5.1%, respectively, of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino led the medium commercial category with 30.5% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 25.4% of the market share during the year.

The Bottom Line  

While new vehicle sales for the year have rebounded from the dismal figures seen in 2020, 2021 was still the second-worst year for vehicle sales in the past decade. The recovery has predominantly been driven by a rebound in passenger vehicle sales, with total commercial vehicle sales still lagging well behind 2019 levels. The strong increase in heavy commercial vehicle sales is however welcome news as it suggests that a few companies and mines upgraded their fleets indicating business optimism. With there being few signs that 2022 will see significant economic growth, we expect new vehicle sales figures to remain more or less in line with 2021’s.

752 new vehicles were sold in November, a 5.3% m/m increase from the 714 sold in October and a 7.4% y/y increase from the 700 sold last November. In November, more passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles were sold than in October. Fewer medium commercial vehicles were sold. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 23.3% y/y to 9,391. Year-to-date, new vehicle sales have increased by 25.8% to 8,687. However, this is 10.5% lower than the year-to-date figure for November 2019, when 9,706 vehicles were sold. As such, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade.

376 new passenger vehicles were sold in November, 20 more than in October, translating to a 5.6% m/m increase and a 10.3% y/y increase. On a 12-month cumulative basis, new passenger vehicle sales have increased by 39.7% y/y to 4,449. Year-to-date, 4,115 new passenger vehicles have been sold. This represents a 43.1% increase from the year-to-date figure for November 2020, when only 2,876 new passenger vehicles were sold. Encouragingly, on a year-to-date basis, new car sales for November almost reached 2019 levels, with the 4,115 sold so far this year only 140 fewer than the 4,255 sold by November 2019. Compared to commercial vehicle sales (4,572 year-to-date sales in 2021 vs 5,451 year-to-date sales in 2019), passenger vehicle sales have enjoyed a stronger recovery in 2021.

376 commercial vehicles were sold in November, a 5.0% m/m increase and 4.7% y/y increase. 316 light commercial vehicles were sold, translating to a 7.1% m/m increase but a 1.6% y/y decrease. 18 medium commercial vehicles were sold, four fewer than the 22 sold in October. So far this year the average number of medium commercial vehicle sales per month is 17. 42 heavy commercial vehicles were sold in November, a near identical number to the 41 sold in October.

Toyota and Volkswagen retain the largest year-to-date market shares in the passenger vehicle market. Toyota’s year-to-date market share is unchanged from October’s figure of 29%, while Volkswagen’s dropped 1% m/m to 27%. Kia, Suzuki and Hyundai have market shares of 9%, 6% and 6% respectively.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota continues to dominate the light commercial vehicles market. Toyota’s market share currently stands at 52% in 2021. Ample competition in the medium commercial vehicle sector means that Hino and Mercedes both capture a significant share of the market, with year-to-date market shares of 31% and 29% respectively. In the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market Scania, Volvo and Man continue to enjoy strong market shares, with 29%, 19% and 15% respectively.

The Bottom Line  

In the context of 2021, November was an average month for vehicle sales in Namibia. Therefore, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for vehicle sales in the past decade.  As alluded to earlier in this report, the marginal recovery from the nadir that was 2020 has been driven predominantly by a recovery in passenger vehicle sales, with commercial vehicle sales still lagging well behind 2019 levels. With persistent global headwinds such as supply chain bottlenecks and semiconductor shortages conspiring to drag down vehicle sales globally, and in Namibia, there is no guarantee that 2022 will be a markedly better year for new vehicle sales.