Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

767 new vehicles were sold in September, a near identical number to the 762 sold in August. This brings the total number of new vehicle sales in 2021 to 7,221. On a year-on-year basis, new vehicle sales declined by 12.2%. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 11.8% to 9,186. September is usually a better month for new vehicle purchases. In fact, 767 represents the smallest number of new cars sold in the month of September over the past decade, lower even than 2020’s September figure. As such, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for car sales in the past decade.

380 new passenger vehicles were sold in September, a 12.4% increase from the 338 sold in August and a 36.7% increase from this time last year. Year-to-date, the sale of new passenger vehicles increased by 51.2% y/y. On a 12-month cumulative basis, sales have increased by 33.6% y/y to 4,356. There is a distinct upward trend in the 12-month cumulative sales figures as it starts to shed the historically low sales numbers from 2020. If this modest upward trend continues there is a good chance that we will see 12-month cumulative sales figure reach late 2019 values by the end of 2021.

Total commercial vehicle sales fell by 8.7% m/m and 35.1% y/y in September. The biggest decline came in the light commercial vehicles category with sales falling by 14.1% m/m and 43.4% y/y to 304, the lowest monthly sales figure for the year. 16 medium commercial vehicles were sold in September, a 6.7% y/y increase but identical to the previous month’s figure. Lastly, 67 heavy commercial vehicles were sold, a 24.1% m/m increase and 52.3% y/y increase. On a 12-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales decrease by 5.7% y/y and medium commercial vehicle sales decreased by 10.6% y/y, while heavy commercial vehicle sales increased by 37.4% y/y.    

Volkswagen and Toyota continue to dominate the market for passenger vehicles, with each maintaining about a 30% share of the market in 2021. Given the ingrained popularity of these two brands it is unlikely that another car maker will be able to displace them in the short- to medium-term. Kia, Hyundai and Suzuki have market shares of 9%, 6% and 5% respectively. 

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota is the biggest seller of light commercial vehicles. They have a 54% share of the market so far in 2021. Mercedes is the main player in the medium commercial vehicles market with a market share of 32%. The German carmaker also has a 14% market share in the heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market. Scania has the largest market share in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market with 24%.  

The Bottom Line  

In the context of 2021 September was an average month for vehicle sales in Namibia. The sale of passenger vehicles increased month-on-month and sales of commercial vehicles decreased, all but balancing each other out. While new vehicle sales remain generally sluggish, Namibia’s situation is not unique. Car sales are down in Europe and the US as the global shortage of semiconductors rolls on. However, Namibia’s declines are best explained by consumers not being able to afford new vehicles and corporates not replacing their fleets.

In August 764 new vehicles were sold, a 4.5% m/m decrease from the 800 sold in July, bringing the total number of vehicle sales in 2021 to 6,457. Total new vehicle sales have declined for the second month running. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 14.1% y/y to 9,296. However, it is the historically low base of 2020’s new vehicle sales, rather than exceptional sales growth in 2021, that explains the relatively high  12-month cumulative sales increase. On a year-on-year basis, new vehicle sales rose 30.4% in August. All told, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade.

340 new passenger vehicles were sold in August, a 12.6% m/m decrease from the 389 sold in July. Year-on-year passenger vehicle sales increased by 70.9%. Year-to-date vehicle sales have increased by 53.4%. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of passenger vehicles sold increased by 28.8% in August to 4,257. However, the equivalent 2019 figure is 4,678, meaning that while new passenger vehicle sales have ticked up from 2020 lows, the 2019 benchmark is yet to be reached.

Commercial vehicle sales increased by 3.2% m/m to 424 in August. New commercial vehicle sales increased by 9.3% y/y. 354 light and 16 medium commercial vehicles were sold in August, a 5.9% m/m decrease and 23.1% m/m increase respectively. 54 heavy commercial vehicles were sold, more than double the amount sold in July. On a 12-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales increased by 2.8% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 15.2% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles increased by 27.7% y/y.

Volkswagen and Toyota now have an all but equal split of the market for passenger vehicles in 2021, with Volkswagen taking 29% and Toyota 28%. Kia solidified its position as the next largest player in the market, marginally upping its share to 9%. Hyundai and Suzuki round off the top 5 with 6% and 5% passenger vehicle market share respectively.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota remains the biggest seller of light commercial vehicles with a 55% share of the market. Ford comes in second at 13%. Mercedes has taken 33% of the market for medium commercial vehicles, followed closely by Hino with 31%. The heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market is the most competitive of the vehicle markets. Scania currently has a 22% market share and Volvo has 19%.

The Bottom Line

August was another sluggish month for vehicle sales in Namibia. Despite a marginal increase in the number of commercial vehicles sold compared to June and July’s figures, a dip in passenger vehicle sales cancelled out any overall vehicle sales gains that might have been made. Global automotive production remains under significant strain as variable demand and a well-documented shortage of semiconductors slow production. The extent to which these supplier-facing costs are passed down to the Namibian consumer is an open question. So long as the automotive market remains sufficiently competitive prices of new vehicles should not increase drastically.

800 new vehicles were sold in July, a 5.1% m/m decrease from the 843 sold in June. This brings the total number of vehicle sales in 2021 to 5,693. Despite this monthly drop, over the past 12 months total vehicle sales have grown by 8.9% y/y to 9,119 with passenger and light commercial vehicles continuing to make up the bulk of the sales. On a year-on-year basis, new vehicle sales rose 19.4% in July.

389 new passenger vehicles were sold in July, a 9.5% m/m decrease from the 430 sold in June. Year-on-year passenger vehicle sales increased by 68.4%. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales have increased by 51.5% y/y, as 1,760 vehicles were sold by this time last July compared to the 2,666 figure this year. Beating 2020’s figures should, and is so far proving, to be an easy task. However, new passenger vehicle sales continue to trail the (already low) pre-pandemic levels of 2019. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of passenger vehicles sold increased by 18.6% y/y in July.

A total of 411 new commercial vehicles were sold in July, virtually the same number as in June. New commercial vehicle sales have decreased by 6.4% y/y. 376 light, 13 medium and 22 heavy commercial vehicles were sold in this period. While the sale of light commercial vehicles increased by 13.6% from June, the sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles both declined on a month-on-month basis. On a 12-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales have increased by 0.4% y/y, medium commercial vehicles fell by 14.9% y/y, and heavy commercial vehicles increased by 28.7% y/y, although the increase is from a very low base.

The ongoing two-way battle between for supremacy in the Namibian commercial and passenger vehicle market between Toyota and Volkswagen rolls on. Volkswagen regained top spot in the year-to-date sale of passenger vehicles with 30% of the market share. Toyota’s market share of passenger vehicles over the same period is 28%. Kia and Hyundai make up 8.5% and 5.7% of the market respectively.  

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota remains the preeminent seller of light commercial vehicles with a 55% share of the market. This is more than four times the share of their nearest competitor, Ford at 13%. Hino and Mercedes each make up 32% of the total medium commercial vehicles sales on a year-to-date basis. The heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market is the most competitive of the vehicle markets, with no one seller amassing more than a quarter of total market share.

The Bottom Line  

July’s new vehicle sales figures bear no marked difference to June’s. 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for vehicle sales in the past decade. By this time in 2019, itself a below par year for vehicle sales over the last 10 years, 6,227 new vehicles were sold, in 2021 that number is only 5,693. Naturally this is an improvement on 2020’s sales figures (4,186 total) but as noted earlier, that is not difficult to accomplish. More tellingly, sales figures for new passenger and commercial vehicles are below pre-pandemic averages, showing that both individual and business spending remains depressed. As vehicle sales and most other high-frequency data is indicating, the economic recovery has a long way yet to go.