Category Archives: Vehicle Sales

A total of 734 new vehicles were sold in December, which is 21 vehicles fewer than were sold in November but represents a 4.3% y/y increase from the 704 new vehicles sold in December 2020. Year-to-date 9,428 new vehicles have been sold, which is 23.9% higher than during 2020, but 9.5% lower than in 2019. As the chart below indicates, this makes 2021 the second-worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade. Of the 9,428 new vehicles sold during the year, 4,484 were passenger vehicles, 4,178 were light commercial vehicles, and 766 were medium and heavy commercial vehicles.

362 new passenger vehicles were sold during December, representing a 4.5% m/m contraction, but an 8.4% y/y increase. 4,484 new passenger vehicles were sold in 2021, a significant increase of 39.7% from 2020. Encouragingly, new passenger vehicle sales for the year were just 1.8% lower than in 2019, indicating that passenger vehicle sales have more or less rebounded to their pre-pandemic level, although this is still a far cry from the sales figures seen during 2013-2015.

A total of 372 commercial vehicles were sold in December, five fewer than in November but two more than in December 2020. During the month, 315 light commercial vehicles, 18 medium and 39 heavy commercial vehicles were sold. For the year, light commercial vehicle sales rose by 8.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales increased by 18.0% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales climbed by 56.0% y/y. Thus, while all three commercial vehicle sales categories have rebounded from the low sales figures recorded in 2020, heavy commercial vehicle sales have encouragingly recorded the best annual sales since 2015.

Toyota led the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2021, claiming 30.1% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 26.6% share. They were followed by Kia and Suzuki at 9.0% and 5.9%, respectively. The only other manufacturer that managed to breach the 5% market share mark was Hyundai with 5.6% of the market, leaving the remaining 22.8% of the market to other brands.

Toyota dominated the light commercial vehicle space in 2021 with a 52.8% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 12.8% market share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12.6% and 5.1%, respectively, of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino led the medium commercial category with 30.5% of sales while Scania was number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 25.4% of the market share during the year.

The Bottom Line  

While new vehicle sales for the year have rebounded from the dismal figures seen in 2020, 2021 was still the second-worst year for vehicle sales in the past decade. The recovery has predominantly been driven by a rebound in passenger vehicle sales, with total commercial vehicle sales still lagging well behind 2019 levels. The strong increase in heavy commercial vehicle sales is however welcome news as it suggests that a few companies and mines upgraded their fleets indicating business optimism. With there being few signs that 2022 will see significant economic growth, we expect new vehicle sales figures to remain more or less in line with 2021’s.

752 new vehicles were sold in November, a 5.3% m/m increase from the 714 sold in October and a 7.4% y/y increase from the 700 sold last November. In November, more passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles were sold than in October. Fewer medium commercial vehicles were sold. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 23.3% y/y to 9,391. Year-to-date, new vehicle sales have increased by 25.8% to 8,687. However, this is 10.5% lower than the year-to-date figure for November 2019, when 9,706 vehicles were sold. As such, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade.

376 new passenger vehicles were sold in November, 20 more than in October, translating to a 5.6% m/m increase and a 10.3% y/y increase. On a 12-month cumulative basis, new passenger vehicle sales have increased by 39.7% y/y to 4,449. Year-to-date, 4,115 new passenger vehicles have been sold. This represents a 43.1% increase from the year-to-date figure for November 2020, when only 2,876 new passenger vehicles were sold. Encouragingly, on a year-to-date basis, new car sales for November almost reached 2019 levels, with the 4,115 sold so far this year only 140 fewer than the 4,255 sold by November 2019. Compared to commercial vehicle sales (4,572 year-to-date sales in 2021 vs 5,451 year-to-date sales in 2019), passenger vehicle sales have enjoyed a stronger recovery in 2021.

376 commercial vehicles were sold in November, a 5.0% m/m increase and 4.7% y/y increase. 316 light commercial vehicles were sold, translating to a 7.1% m/m increase but a 1.6% y/y decrease. 18 medium commercial vehicles were sold, four fewer than the 22 sold in October. So far this year the average number of medium commercial vehicle sales per month is 17. 42 heavy commercial vehicles were sold in November, a near identical number to the 41 sold in October.

Toyota and Volkswagen retain the largest year-to-date market shares in the passenger vehicle market. Toyota’s year-to-date market share is unchanged from October’s figure of 29%, while Volkswagen’s dropped 1% m/m to 27%. Kia, Suzuki and Hyundai have market shares of 9%, 6% and 6% respectively.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota continues to dominate the light commercial vehicles market. Toyota’s market share currently stands at 52% in 2021. Ample competition in the medium commercial vehicle sector means that Hino and Mercedes both capture a significant share of the market, with year-to-date market shares of 31% and 29% respectively. In the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market Scania, Volvo and Man continue to enjoy strong market shares, with 29%, 19% and 15% respectively.

The Bottom Line  

In the context of 2021, November was an average month for vehicle sales in Namibia. Therefore, 2021 remains on track to be the second worst year for vehicle sales in the past decade.  As alluded to earlier in this report, the marginal recovery from the nadir that was 2020 has been driven predominantly by a recovery in passenger vehicle sales, with commercial vehicle sales still lagging well behind 2019 levels. With persistent global headwinds such as supply chain bottlenecks and semiconductor shortages conspiring to drag down vehicle sales globally, and in Namibia, there is no guarantee that 2022 will be a markedly better year for new vehicle sales.

714 new vehicles were sold in October, the second lowest monthly sales figures for 2021. This comes after 767 vehicles were sold in September. Fewer passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles were sold in October than in September. Only the number of medium commercial vehicles sold increased, from 16 in September to 22 in October. Year-to-date, a total of 7,935 new vehicles have been sold. Despite the low monthly sales figure, new vehicle sales increased by 27.3% y/y in October. On a 12-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have grown by 19.7% to 9,339.

356 new passenger vehicles were sold in October, 24 fewer than in September. This translates to a 6.3% m/m decrease, but a 19.5% y/y increase. On a 12-month cumulative basis, new passenger vehicle sales have increased by 38.0% y/y to 4,414. Despite being a somewhat weaker month for passenger vehicle sales, October’s sale figure is not far off the average monthly sales figure for the past 12 months. 

Total commercial vehicle sales declined by 7.5% m/m but increased by 36.1% y/y in October. The biggest month-on-month decline in both absolute number and percentage terms came in the heavy commercial vehicles category. The 41 heavy commercial vehicles sold is 26 fewer than in September, representing a 38.8% m/m decrease in sales. That said, heavy commercial vehicle sales are up 46.4% y/y. Light commercial vehicle sales followed a similar pattern. 295 light commercial vehicle sales in October translates to a 3.0% m/m decrease, but 35.9% y/y increase in sales.  22 medium commercial vehicles were sold in October, an increase of 37.5% m/m and 22.2% y/y.

Toyota and Volkswagen remain the pre-eminent brands in the passenger vehicle market. Toyota’s year-to-date market share is 29% and Volkswagen’s is 28%. To illustrate their dominance, even if the market shares of the next four largest brands are combined (Kia, Suzuki, Hyundai and Haval, in that order) their stake is still smaller than that of Volkswagen.    

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota has the largest market share of light commercial vehicles. Toyota’s market share in the category declined marginally from 54% in September to 53% in October. The medium commercial vehicles sector remains more competitive, with both Hino and Mercedes taking a 30% share of the market. Scania, Volvo and Man are the biggest players in the heavy and extra heavy commercial vehicle market, with 25%, 19% and 15% market shares respectively.  

The Bottom Line  

October 2021 was a below average month for both passenger and commercial vehicle sales in Namibia, all but confirming that 2021 will be the second worst year for new vehicle sales in the past decade. This did not necessarily appear to be the case at the beginning of the year. In the first two months of 2021 more new vehicles were sold than in the first two months of 2019. Then the figures started to diverge. Global headwinds in the form of supply chain bottlenecks and semiconductor shortages interacted with domestic lockdowns through-out the year to effectively drag down sales during 2021. Finally, as December usually sees below yearly-average vehicle sales, regardless of the underlying health of the economy, there is even less chance that new vehicle sales in 2021 will rise to, or past, 2019 levels.