Building Plans – February 2021

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 221 building plans in February, representing an 81.1% m/m increase from the 122 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$163.9 million, a 95.1% m/m increase, while buildings with a value of N$54.4 million were completed during February, a 5.5% m/m decrease. Although the number of building approvals for 2021 are 5.2% higher than the same period of 2020, the value of these approvals has fallen sharply by 40.1% y/y, from N$414.2 million in 2020 to N$248 million in 2021. In contrast, the number of completed buildings increased by 29.9% y/y year-to-date to 87, while the value of these completions rose by 93.3% y/y from N$57.9 million in 2020 to N$112 million in 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,299 buildings with the value of N$1.69 billion were approved, an increase of 13.6% in number, yet a decrease of 14% in value, similar to the previous 2 months.  

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of February, 131 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$70.6 million, 33 fewer than in February 2020. The value of the additions approved in February is 27.1% lower than those observed in February 2020. 11 additions worth N$4.61 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in February, but the largest contributor in value terms. 87 new units worth N$92.8 million were approved in February, representing a 14.5% decrease from the N$108.6 million worth of approvals in February 2020. On a 12-month cumulative basis, residential units recorded a 50.8% y/y increase in value. 42 new residential units worth N$49.8 million were completed during the month.

Three new commercial units, valued at N$505,000, were approved in February. This compares to 13 units valued at N$21.92 million approved in February 2020. Year-to-date, there have been 4 commercial building approvals valued at N$7.5 million, which translates to a 5.2% increase in number terms and a 40.1% decrease in value terms compared to the same period last year. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 26 units worth N$180.8 million as at February, compared to the 61 approved units worth N$647.3 million over the corresponding period a year ago. No commercial and industrial units were completed in February.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 13.6% y/y in February. A total of 2,299 building plans to the value of N$1.69 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decline in value of 14.0% y/y. Additions to properties have made up 67% of the cumulative number of approvals, but only 39.4% of the total value of approvals. Completed building plans, a lagging indicator, looks positive, increasing by 27% y/y in value terms to N$1.59 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis in February. Approved building plans, a leading indicator has consistently ticked up in number terms since August 2020. Although the value of these approvals fell by 14.0% y/y on a 12-month cumulative basis, the value of residential building approvals and additions to properties rose by 14.6%. The overall decline in value of approvals was thus mainly due to a large contraction in commercial building plan approvals, which has consistently declined in value terms on a rolling 12-month basis since September last year. Overall, Namibia’s housing market displays positive trends in both the 12-month cumulative value of plans completed as well as plans approved. The decline in commercial building plans approvals and completions is however concerning and reflects Namibia’s uncertain business outlook.

NCPI – February 2021

The Namibian annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% y/y in February, with prices in the overall NCPI basket increasing by 0.4% m/m. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in six of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in February than in January and the other half of the basket categories recording slower rates of inflation. Prices for goods increased by 3.2% y/y while prices for services rose 2.0% y/y.

Food & non-alcoholic beverages, the second largest basket item by weighting, continued to be the largest contributor to annual inflation, accounting for 1.0 percentage point of the total 2.7% inflation rate. Prices in this category increased by 1.2% m/m and 5.5% y/y. Prices in twelve of the thirteen sub-categories recorded increases on an annual basis. The largest increases were observed in the prices of fruits which increased by 11.85% y/y and meat which increased by 11.84% y/y. The fish sub-category meanwhile saw a marginal price decrease of 0.6% y/y in February.

The alcoholic beverages and tobacco basket item was the second largest contributor to the annual inflation rate in February, with prices of the basket item increasing by 4.2% y/y. On a monthly basis, prices in this basket item fell by 0.4%. The alcoholic beverages sub-category recorded a price decrease of 0.4% m/m, but an increase of 3.0% y/y. Tobacco prices were down 0.2% m/m, but up 9.7% y/y.

The housing and utilities category accounted for 0.39 percentage points of the total annual inflation rate in February. Price inflation for this category remained steady on a monthly basis, but rose 1.5% y/y. The regular maintenance and repair of dwellings subcategory recorded an increase in prices of 3.1% y/y, which is a lower rate of increase than the 4.2% y/y registered the previous month. Prices in the electricity, gas and other fuels subcategory increased by 2.2% y/y, while the annual inflation for rental payments rose to 1.3% y/y. None of the four subcategories printed price increases on a month-on-month basis.

In the US inflation expectations have been heightened by the Fed’s prolonged loose monetary policy and President Joe Biden’s US$1.9 trillion stimulus package. These rising inflation expectations are putting pressure on central banks as they seek to ensure a smooth recovery.

On the local front, however, IJG’s inflation model forecasts an average inflation rate of 3.2% y/y in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022, indicating a gradual increase in the inflation rate over the next two years and that inflation will likely remain relatively low over this period. This, coupled with high unemployment and struggling economic growth in both Namibia and South Africa, means that we currently see it as unlikely that interest rates will be raised in either country in the short-term.