Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

NCPI November 2022

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Namibia’s annual inflation rate slowed marginally to 7.0% y/y in November. Prices in the overall NCPI basket rose by 0.5% m/m, the quickest since July. Year-on-year, overall prices in seven of the twelve categories rose at a quicker rate in November than in October, three categories experienced slower rates of inflation and two categories posted inflation rates consistent with those in October. Goods inflation came in at 9.6% y/y, slowing for a third consecutive month. Services inflation, while fairly lower than goods inflation, rose for a fifth consecutive month to 3.4% y/y in November.

Contributions to the 7.0% y/y inflation print were relatively stable across the majority of the basket item categories. The largest movement was from the contribution of the alcohol and tobacco category dropping from 0.91ppt in October to 0.67ppt in November.

Transport inflation ticked up to 2.0% m/m and 18.3% y/y, following the 198c per litter increase in the price of Diesel that came into effect at the beginning of November. The basket item contributed 2.7ppt to the annual inflation rate. All three sub-categories recorded quicker inflation on an annual basis than in October. The purchase of vehicles sub-category recorded price increases of 0.8% m/m and 3.8% y/y. Prices in the operation of personal transport equipment sub-category rose by 2.8% m/m and 27.3% y/y. After recording an over-recovery of 125 cents per litre on diesel in November, the Ministry of Mines and Energy lowered diesel prices in-kind at the beginning of December while leaving petrol prices unchanged, which should ease inflation in this sub-category in December. The last two months have seen the brent crude price retrace to February levels in ZAR terms, which should lead to softer transport inflation in the coming months, should it remain at current levels. Prices in the public transportation services sub-category climbed by 0.2% m/m and 7.1% y/y.

Food & non-alcoholic beverages were the second largest contributor the annual inflation rate, contributing 1.8ppt to November’s print. Prices in this basket item rose by 0.6% m/m and 9.4% y/y. All thirteen sub-categories in this basket item recorded price increases on an annual basis for the 11th consecutive month. Fruit saw the largest prices increase on an annual basis, rising by 19.6% y/y, followed by the prices for oils and fats which rose by 18.3% y/y. Inflation for both sub-categories were however slower than the 21.6% and 24.6% respective annual rates recorded in October.

Alcohol & tobacco inflation eased from 6.7% y/y in October to 4.8% y/y in November. Prices of the basket item rose by 0.2% m/m. Alcoholic beverages posted inflation of 0.2% m/m and 5.0% y/y, driven primarily by price increases of 21.2% y/y on white spirits. Tobacco prices, meanwhile, rose by 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y, attributable of cigarette inflation of 5.7% y/y, compared to pipe tobacco prices which are down 0.4% y/y.

While easing somewhat, the Namibian annual inflation rate continues to trend above the SARB’s target ceiling of 6.0%. The Bank of Namibia’s MPC decision in November to not hike rates by as much as the SARB did (50bps compared to the SARB’s 75bps) came as somewhat of a surprise, but will be welcomed by indebted consumers and businesses as it softens the blow to some extent. After the rate announcement, the governor of the BoN explained that when the MPC were analysing the incoming monetary, financial and economic data at the last monetary policy review, the members had the benefit of seeing the forecasts for the forthcoming SACU receipts for 2023, which indicated that the total amount that Namibia will be receiving will be significantly higher in 2023.

He further added that the inflation rate seems to be levelling off and that forecasts are showing oil prices remaining relatively muted for at least the next six months. The governor specifically mentioned that they do not expect much changes from the 25bps differential between Namibia and South Africa’s repo rate in terms of capital outflows. We however do not foresee the BoN deviating from the SARB much going forward.

IJG’s inflation model currently forecasts Namibia’s annual inflation rate to further ease to around 6.8% next month, and for the rate to continue steadily slowing during the course of 2023, before reaching around 4.0% at the end of 2023.

New Vehicle Sales – November 2022

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1,045 new vehicles were sold in November, up 4.9% m/m from the 996 vehicles sold in October, and an increase of 38.4% y/y from the 755 vehicles sold in November 2021. Year-to-date, 9,973 new vehicles have been sold, of which 5,072 were passenger vehicles, 4,265 light commercial vehicles, and 636 medium and heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 10,707 new vehicles were sold at the end of November, representing a 13.9% y/y increase from the 9,397 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 531 new passenger vehicles were sold during November, 65 more than the 466 sold in October, and an increase of 29.4% y/y from the 379 vehicles sold in November last year. Toyota once again took the spoils in this segment after amassing 35.8% of the new passenger vehicle sales in November, followed by Volkswagen which accounted for 14.9% of the sales. Year-to-date, new passenger vehicle sales rose to 5,072, a 23.0% y/y jump from the 4,122 vehicles sold during the same period last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, new passenger vehicle sales grew by 21.9% y/y to 5,434, a level last observed in 2018.

514 new commercial vehicles were sold in November, 16 fewer than in October but up by 36.7% y/y from the 376 commercial vehicles sold in November last year. Light commercial vehicle sales fell by 2.8% m/m to 447 but increased by 41.5% y/y when compared to the 317 sold a year ago. Medium commercial vehicle sales rose by 8.3% m/m to 26 and up by 44.4% y/y when compared to the 18 sold in November last year. Heavy commercial vehicle sales however declined by 10.9% m/m to 41 and down by 2.4% y/y from the 42 sold in November 2021. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, light commercial vehicle sales increased by 9.6% y/y to 4,580, while medium commercial vehicle sales fell by 2.0% y/y to 194 and heavy commercial vehicles decreased by 11.7% y/y to 499. November saw a new entrant in the heavy commercial vehicles category with JAC recording its first sale in this segment.

Toyota continues its dominance in the new passenger vehicle sector with 33.2% of the segment’s sales year-to-date, followed by Volkswagen with 21.4% of the market share. Kia and Suzuki are the best of the rest with 9.2%, and 7.7% of the market share while the other brands account for the remaining 28.5%.

On a year-to-date basis, Toyota also maintained its reign in the light commercial vehicle space with 47.4% of the segment’s sales year-to-date, followed by Ford with 12.2% of the market share and Nissan with 11.8%. Hino continued its dominance in the medium commercial vehicle segment with 30.7% of sales year-to-date while its closest competitor, Mercedes, accumulated 21.6% of the sales in this segment year-to-date.  In the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle market, Scania retained the top spot with 25.2% of the market share, followed by Volvo Trucks with a 22.4% market share.

The Bottom Line  

New vehicle sales grew from last month and breached the 1,000 new vehicle sales mark for the fourth time this year. The 1,045 new vehicles sold in November was the highest number recorded for November since 2018. The year-to-date chart at the top of this report shows that new vehicle sales have surpassed the total number of new vehicles sold for the whole of last year and are well on track to beat the 10,000 annual total new vehicle sales mark which was last observed in 2019. Unless a very dismal sales figure is recorded in December, total sales for 2022 are expected to come in above the 10,415 total new vehicles sold in 2019.

November’s strong vehicle sales came on the back of solid passenger vehicle sales. The 531 new passenger vehicles sold in November was the highest monthly sales number recorded so far this year and brought the average monthly figures for the year to date to 461 and on par with the numbers last seen in 2018. New commercial vehicle sales, in contrast, saw a slight contraction in November but remained relatively strong, nonetheless. Despite the drop, the 514 new commercial vehicles sold in November came in above the 446 sold on average each month for the year to date. On a 12-month cumulative basis, 5,273 new vehicles were sold but continue to lag the pre-pandemic 2019 average of 6,300 with little support for a recovery soon.

PSCE – October 2022

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Overall

Private sector credit (PSCE) rose by N$104.5 million or 0.1% m/m in October, bringing the cumulative credit outstanding to N$109.6 billion after normalising for interbank swaps accounted in non-resident private sector claims. Year-on-year, private sector credit grew by 3.0% in October, marginally slower than the 3.6% y/y growth recorded in September. On a 12-month cumulative basis, N$3.21 billion worth of credit was extended to the private sector. Of the cumulative issuance, corporates borrowed N$1.37 billion and individuals took up N$2.29 billion.

Credit Extension to Individuals

Credit extended to individuals increased by 0.8% m/m and 3.7% y/y in October. Annual growth in all of the credit lines to individuals picked up in October. Mortgage loans to individuals posted growth of 0.4% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Other loans and advances (consisting of credit card, personal, and term loans) grew by 3.0% m/m and 10.3% y/y, and instalment credit rose by 0.9% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Overdraft facilities to individuals contracted by 1.3% m/m and 0.3% y/y.

Credit Extension to Corporates

Credit extended to corporates contracted by 0.9% m/m but rose by 3.1% y/y in October. The Bank of Namibia (BoN) ascribes the decline to lower credit demand and deleveraging by corporates in the construction and services sectors. All of the credit lines to corporates, bar other loans and advances, saw a deceleration in annual growth in October. Mortgage loans grew by 0.1% m/m but declined 3.3% y/y. Installment credit posted growth of 1.7% m/m and 14.6% y/y. Overdrafts declined by 2.3% m/m and 6.2% y/y. Other loans and advances to corporates contracted by 1.5% m/m but rose 13.2% y/y.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The overall liquidity position of the commercial banks improved in October, rising by N$616.7 million to an average of N$3.33 billion before ending the month at N$3.4 billion. The BoN attributed the improved liquidity position to inflows from government bonds, specifically the redemption of GI22 and interest payments on other bonds.

Money Supply and Reserves

Broad money supply (M2) contracted by N$1.85 billion or 1.8% y/y to N$126.4 billion. According to the BoN, the contraction came on the back of a decline in net foreign assets of the depository corporations as a result of rising government foreign payments, combined with commercial bank outflows for import payments and lower growth in domestic claims. Foreign reserve balances fell by 6.7% m/m or N$3.20 billion to N$44.8 billion in October. The BoN ascribed the decline largely to government payments and commercial bank outflows during the period under review.

Outlook

Annual PSCE growth slowed for the second consecutive month in October. The BoN once again attributed the lower growth in PSCE to lower credit demand and repayments by the corporate sector, specifically corporates operating in the construction and services sectors.

The BoN’s MPC hiked interest rates by 50 basis points in November, bringing the prime lending rate to 10.5% and just 25bps below the highest lending rate of the past decade. The rapidly rising borrowing costs, coupled with the muted economic activity means that PSCE growth will possibly remain subdued in the short-term. On the supply side, we see little change from the current status quo over the near term.