Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

Namibia CPI – September 2014

By | | ,
Comments Off on Namibia CPI – September 2014

Namibia CPI

Annual Inflation for September declined by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.3% compared to 5.4% recorded August. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate eased to 0.2% from 0.3%. The annual decline in inflation resulted from food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, recreation and culture, housing, water, electricity gas and other fuels and communication. On a monthly basis, the decrease resulted from monthly decreases recorded in all groups comprising NCPI.

The main drivers of the annual inflation were the large weighted items in the overall inflation basket: food and non-alcoholic beverages (8.4%) as well as transport (6.6%). Additional relatively smaller contributions to inflation were seen from the minor groups, such as recreation and culture (5.6%), hotels, cafes and restaurants (5.3%) and miscellaneous goods and services (4.5%).

IJG New Vehicle Sales September 2014

By | | ,
Comments Off on IJG New Vehicle Sales September 2014

September 2014 Vehicle Sales

1,912 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during September, up 12.9% m/m, reflecting a recovery to July’s all-time highs. The improvement in monthly figures was largely caused by strong growth in commercial vehicle sales with passenger vehicle sales dropping for a third month in a row. On an annual basis growth increased by 32.8% from last year September, up from 15.6% in August. To date 15,881 vehicles have been sold this year, up 13.7% from August and 33.5% compared to this time last year.

Vehicle sales m/m

 

The 12-month cumulative measure increased to 20,100, an all-time high. This is 35.2% higher than a year ago, and up 2.4% from the previous month.

12 month y/y % change

 

Sales of passenger vehicles decreased, falling 5.4% m/m to 765 vehicles sold, but up 8.8% compared to a year ago. Year to date, passenger vehicle sales are up 26.3% when compared to the same period of last year. Commercial vehicle sales increased by 29.6% m/m to 1,147 vehicles sold, an increase of 55.6% y/y. Cumulative commercial vehicle sales are up 40% compared to this time last year.

Toyota and Volkswagen dominated the passenger market once again, selling the most vehicles in September, with the two brands claiming 30.3% and 21.8% of sales respectively.  Toyota once again was the market leader in light commercial vehicles sales, having the lion’s share of at 49.4% of the market, followed by Nissan at 17.4%.

The Bottom Line

The strong increase in vehicle sales is attributed to a number of factors, namely the on-going expansive fiscal and monetary policy of the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Namibia. The expansion in vehicle purchases in the 2014/15 National Budget continues to play a part in the increases and should carry current levels of vehicle sales through to the end of the year with a slight decline due to the high levels we have seen this month. Current cumulative vehicle sales are less than a month away from surpassing last year’s total figure pointing to another year of strong growth despite monetary policy tightening. Further tightening should have an impact on vehicle sales although this will be partially muted due to government tenders still outstanding.

Building Plans September 2014

By | | , ,
Comments Off on Building Plans September 2014

A total of 301 building plans to the value of N$142.11m were approved by the City of Windhoek in September 2014. On a year‑to‑date basis (January to September), 2,258 plans were approved compared to 2,484 plans over the same period last year. In value terms, however, plans approved year-to-date are worth N$1,837.1bn compared to N$1,711.1bn for the same period in 2013, up 7.4%. This increase is mostly due to three large commercial projects that were approved by the municipality in February 2014. On a monthly basis, a few more plans were approved in September when compared to August, while the value of plans approved is down 24.9% m/m. The difference in value is mainly because less expensive commercial and industrial projects were approved in September.

Should the year-to-date trend of the value of plans approved be maintained for the remainder of the year (illustrated by the red dashed line in the graph above), 2014 will most likely be equivalent to the record 2012 year. Ignoring monthly volatility, the trend implies that there is an average of N$167m worth of building plans per month, which will match 2012.

In our view, the construction sector will be one of the leading growth and development sectors in the Namibian economy for 2014, with both private sector and government having aggressive development plans. However, many such plans fall out of the Windhoek municipal area, and as such are not captured in the monthly building plan statistics.

Download (PDF, 407KB)