A total of 1,593 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during August. New vehicle sales decreased by 6% year on year and 17.6% month on month, but increased 2.8% on a year to date basis, to a total of 14,529. Although this figure keeps Namibia on track for a record year of new vehicle sales at present, the declining rate of growth of new vehicle sales suggests otherwise. The 12-month cumulative measure of new vehicles sold decreased from 22,455 in July to 22,354 in August, largely due to an elevated base and strong vehicle sales in 2014.
Passenger vehicle sales fell by 16.2% month on month, from 782 in July to 655 in August, down from a high of 910 in March this year. This is the second month on month decline and the lowest monthly figure posted since the December 2013. On a year to date basis, sales of passenger vehicles slowed by 0.2% to 6,423, while year on year sales fell by 19% off a reasonably high base. This is the first year to date contraction in passenger vehicle sales since March 2013. 2014 saw exceptional growth in passenger vehicle sales which has proven to be unsustainable as the year to date percentage change in vehicle sales has shown. In 2014 this measure of passenger vehicle sales growth averaged 27% per month but has dropped to 0% for this year.
Commercial vehicle sales decreased by 18.5% month on month as 938 vehicles sold. On a year on year basis a 6% increase was recorded. Thus while the year to date figure is still above last year’s, the growth rate in commercial vehicle sales is declining steadily, although off a high base. Light commercial vehicle sales declined by 17.3% month on month but increased 8.8% year on year. Medium commercial vehicle sales increased 8.6% month on month but fell 22.4% year on year. Heavy commercial vehicle sales fell by 41.5% month on month and 6.8% year on year, emphasizing the trend of slowing growth in sales. Despite this trend year to date commercial vehicle sales are still on track for a record year.
Toyota once again topped the number of vehicles sold per brand for the month at 557, a market share of 35%. 197 or 30.1% of the 655 passenger vehicles sold during the month were Toyotas, as well as 360 or 42.6% of the 845 light commercial vehicles sold. Volkswagen moved 179 passenger vehicles or 27.3% of the total sold during the month. In total Volkswagen’s market share was 13.9% of the total. Nissan managed 8.7% market share for the month, closely followed by Ford with 8.2% and Isuzu with 7.9%.
The Bottom Line
We have seen exceptionally strong vehicle sales growth through 2014, fueled by a strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth, but the latest figures show that this trend is losing momentum. Strong vehicle sales in 2014 have elevated the base substantially which has led to lower percentage growth figures, although the number of vehicles sold is still strong. Thus we may see vehicle sales normalising somewhat at the levels seen this year. Downside risks to this are rising interest rates which may limit marginal lenders from qualifying for financing as well as banking sector liquidity which may limit the amount of loans available to finance vehicle purchases.
