Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

New Vehicle Sales – June 2017

By | | ,
Comments Off on New Vehicle Sales – June 2017

Vehicle sales remained lacklustre in June with 1,120 vehicles sold. This is a 24.0% decrease from the 1,606 vehicles sold in June of 2016 and a 3.5% m/m increase on the 1,179 vehicles sold in May. Year to date, 6,832 vehicles have been sold, 23.4% less than the corresponding period in 2016, making 2017 the slowest year for car sales since 2012. Of the 6,832 vehicles sold this year, 3,045 were passenger vehicles, 3,427 were light commercial vehicles, and 360 were medium or heavy commercial vehicles.

The declining trend in vehicle sales has been well established, contracting on a year on year basis since mid-2015. Passenger sales have decreased by 19.3% y/y, to 519 cars, while commercial sales have declined by 27.2% y/y. Of the 701 commercial automobiles sold in June: 595 were classified as light, 23 as medium and 83 as heavy. The uptick in heavy commercial vehicles, a 66.0% y/y increase on June 2016, is a positive signal as increased capital spending is a sign of improving business confidence. However, light and medium commercial vehicles remain in contractionary territory decreasing by 32.9% and 11.5% respectively.

On a twelve-month cumulative basis, vehicle sales have declined by 24.1%. Instalment credit, which is mainly used to finance vehicle purchases, has also been slowing considerably. Instalment credit advances grew by only 1.3% y/y in May, the lowest level on our records.

Year to date Toyota and Volkswagen continue to hold a strong market share in the passenger vehicle market based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 37% and 27% of the market respectively. They were followed by Ford and Mercedes at 6% and 4% respectively, while the rest of the passenger vehicle market continues to be shared by several competitors. Toyota also remains the leader in light commercial vehicle sales with 47% of the market, followed by Nissan at 15%. Ford and Isuzu claimed 12% and 10% of the number of light commercial vehicles sold in 2017.

Iveco is the leader of medium commercial vehicles with 31% of the market followed by Hino at 30%. In the heavy and extra heavy category, Scania and Mercedes have sold the most vehicles, claiming 27% and 17% of the market respectively. However, after a strong month, UD Trucks came in at a close third, cornering 16% of the number of vehicles sold in 2017.

The Bottom Line

Vehicle sales remained sluggish in June continuing the trend of the last two years. The reasons for the slowdown in sales have been well documented, lower government spending on capital assets, slower economic growth and disposable incomes as well as the credit agreement act have been identified as the main dampers on new vehicles sold. However, with some green shoots starting to appear in the local economy and the encouraging uptick in heavy commercial vehicle sales, as well as base effects, the current climate may improve over the coming year.

Building Plans – June 2017

By | | ,
Comments Off on Building Plans – June 2017

A total of 182 building plans were approved in June, this too was the same total number of building plans approved in May. Though there was no change in the number of plans approved, there has been a significant change in the value of plans approved during June, totalling N$295.8 million, in contrast to the N$655.5 million recorded in May. A total 17 buildings with a value of N$36.6 million were completed during the month. The year to date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$1.45 billion, 52% higher than the corresponding period in 2016. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 1,848 building plans were approved worth approximately N$2.47 billion, 20.5% higher than the preceding twelve-month period.

The majority of the number of building plan approvals were made up of additions to properties. 159 plans were approved in June, up from the 143 approved in May. Year to date, 755 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$613 million, 40.3% more in value terms than the corresponding period in 2016.

New residential units approved perennially is the second largest contributor to building plans approved. 158 residential units have been approved year to date, 49 more than during the corresponding period in 2016. In dollar terms, N$282.7 million worth of residential plans were approved, 24.8% higher than in the corresponding period in 2016. The increased activity in the residential sector is quite encouraging to see, indicating that demand persists for housing from the middle-income consumer.

The number of commercial units approved in 2017 amounted to 17, valued at N$561.3 million. This compares to 36 units valued at N$295.1 million approved over the same period in 2016. Only 1 building valued at N$10 million was approved in June. Bearing in mind that we are only half way into the year, value of plans approved already exceeds the total approvals recorded for the whole of 2016. This coming off the back of 1 commercial plan approval valued at N$500 million in May, set for construction to take place in the Windhoek CBD area.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved has ticked up slightly in June. It however remains low at half of the September 2013 peak. In the last twelve months 1,848 building plans were approved, 7.3% less than the same measure for June 2016.

Government has managed to source funding in the form of a N$3 billion loan from the African Development Bank (AfDB). Treasury revealed recently that it plans to pump more than N$2.5 billion into the Namibian economy in the coming months. This will be done through the settlement of outstanding invoices, with hopes of easing the financial squeeze felt in the country. Already we’ve seen improvement in commercial banks liquidity position, which should imply banks having increased levels of loanable funds to be made available to the consumer. The struggling construction sector is set to be the largest recipient of the envisaged settlements owed by government. These positive developments support the relative increase in the number of plans approved for additions and new residential approvals which continue to be the two biggest contributors of growing approvals and completions.

PSCE – May 2017

By | | ,
Comments Off on PSCE – May 2017

Overall

Total credit extended to the private sector increased by N$586.1 million or 0.7% m/m in May, bringing the cumulative credit outstanding to N$87.95 billion. On a year on year basis, credit extended grew by 8.2%, though slightly higher that the8.1% recorded in April, it remains of the slowest growth seen in PSCE for the last 5 years. On a rolling 12-month basis, N$6.69 billion worth of credit was extended, down significantly from the N$10.3 billion high of 2015. This consisted of N$2.82 billion worth of credit extended to corporates and N$4.02 billion to individuals, while the non-resident private sector on the other hand decreased their borrowings by N$150.8 million.

Credit extension to households

Credit extension to individuals picked up slightly in May, expanding by 8.6% y/y and 0.4% m/m. Installment credit contracted further by 0.7% m/m bringing the year on year growth to 3.0%. Vehicle sales, which make up a large portion of installment credit, has taken a nosedive since the end of 2015 and has since been struggling to recover. Similarly, the growth in mortgage loans remains sluggish at 1.2% m/m and 8.8% y/y. There has been however, a noticeable shift in overdrafts facilities extended to individuals, up 17.34% y/y with a m/m change of 0.30%.

The large year-on-year increase  in overdraft advances is a sign that the Namibian consumer is still under pressure, while other loans and advances recorded a m/m contraction of 0.9%, with a y/y increase of 20.0%. The general slowdown in mortgage and installment credit extended to individuals is attributable to tighter lending conditions as well as a deterioration in the creditworthiness of the average borrower as household debt has increased substantially for the average consumer.

Credit extension to corporates

Credit extended to corporates grew by 0.7% m/m in May after contracting 0.4% m/m in April.  Annual growth is up from 7.4% y/y recorded in April to 8.4% in May. Instalment credit extended to corporates contracted by 0.7% m/m, the eighth consecutive monthly contraction, which also further contributed to a contraction of 1.0% y/y. Mortgage loans extended to corporates during May grew by 1.2% m/m and grew only by 4.8% y/y. Mortgage loans extended to corporates have recorded single digit growth figures for the past nine months, far from the highs of 20.4% seen February of 2016. Overdrafts extended to corporates recorded increases of 0.3% on a m/m basis and 18.6% y/y.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The overall liquidity position of commercial banks has shown healthy improvement, closing at a monthly average of N$3.29 billion during May, up from the average N$1.83 billion seen during April. We expect this to remain relatively stable in the very near term, boosted by the loan from the African Development Bank seems to have alleviated some of the pressure  on government to fund their deficit though debt issuance. This should serve as a sign that banks have  increased supply of loanable funds This sentiment being supported by the increased levels overdrafts extended to both corporates and to individuals.

Reserves and money supply

Foreign reserves decreased by N$262 million to N$25.4 billion at the end of May from N$25.7 billion in April. According to the Bank of Namibia the decline in the level of reserves emanated mainly from government payouts and the appreciation of the local currency.

Outlook

The outlook for private sector credit extension continues to improve albeit slightly. Small signs of positivity are showing in the form of the improved overall liquidity position of commercial banks. We believe that with the banking sector now having increased levels of loanable funds and relatively lower short term funding costs, it should incentivize the commercial banks to lend more. However, sluggish demand for mortgage and vehicle loans will in all likelihood persist over the short to medium term. Also bearing in mind the latest Q1 GDP release from the NSA that now affirms that Namibia is in a recession makes for a relatively dim outlook. Furthermore, there has been some relief, with inflation being on the decline since the start of the year, currently at 6.3%., Furthermore, the South African Reserve Bank is expected to cut interest rates this year and Bank of Namibia is likely to follow, which may give the already stretched consumer more room to breathe.