Category Archives: Economic Research

Economic Research

PSCE – February 2019

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Overall

Total credit extended to the private sector (PSCE) increased by N$606.7 million or 0.63% m/m in February, bringing the cumulative credit outstanding to N$97.7 billion. On a year-on-year basis, private sector credit extension increased by 6.59% in February, compared to 7.16% in January. From a rolling 12-month basis, N$6.04 billion worth of credit was extended to the private sector. Of this cumulative issuance, individuals took up credit worth N$3.46 billion, while N$1.99 billion was issued to corporates. Claims on non-resident private sectors totaled N$587.4 million, on a 12-month cumulative basis.

Credit Extension to Individuals

Credit extended to individuals increased by 6.4% y/y in February, growing at a slightly slower pace than the 6.7% y/y increase recorded in January. On a monthly basis, household credit grew by 0.4% following an increase of 0.3% m/m recorded in January. Household demand for overdraft facilities was once again strong in February, increasing by 2.2% m/m and 4.7% y/y, compared to the 2.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y increase seen in January. The value of mortgage loans extended to individuals increased by 0.3% m/m and 7.3% y/y. Installment credit remained depressed, increasing by 1.1% m/m, but contracting by 5.4% y/y.

Credit Extension to Corporates

Credit extension to corporates ticked up slightly month-on-month, increasing by 1.0% following a 0.1% increase in January. Year-on-year credit extension to corporates increased by 5.4% in February, increasing at a slower rate than the 6.3% y/y recorded in January. The increase in overall loans to corporates was mostly driven by corporates’ continued use of short-term credit facilities, in particular overdrafts, which increased by 3.7% m/m and 13.1% y/y. Other loans and advances, which consists of credit card debt, personal and term loans, extended to businesses increased by 26.8% y/y, but contracted by 0.2% m/m. Mortgage loans extended to corporates increased by a low 1.2% y/y, but decreased by 0.7% m/m.

Banking Sector Liquidity

The overall liquidity position of commercial banks improved significantly during February, increasing by N$2.10 billion to reach an average of N$2.38 billion. Bank of Namibia credits this improvement in liquidity to higher government spending as well as higher mineral proceeds during the period. The higher liquidity resulted in a decrease in use of the BoN’s repo facility by commercial banks, with the outstanding balance of repo’s decreasing from N$2.29 billion at the start of February to N$645.7 million by month end.

Reserves and Money Supply

Broad money supply rose by N$9.97 billion or 10.5% y/y in February following a 7.6% y/y increase in January, as per the BoN’s latest money statistics release. Foreign reserve balances rose by 3.1% m/m to N$31.6 billion in February. The BoN stated that the increase was mostly due to increased net capital inflows by commercial banks, coupled with exchange rate revaluations.

Outlook

Overall PSCE growth in February moderated for a third consecutive month on a year-on-year basis, increasing by 6.6%. From a 12-month rolling perspective, credit issuance is up 36.6% from the N$4.42 billion issuance observed at the end of February 2018, with individuals taking up most (57.3%) of the credit extended over the past 12 months.

As has been the case for the past few months, most of the growth in PSCE for February has stemmed from shorter-dated debt, which is unlikely to drive meaningful expansion of productive capacity. Instalment credit extended to corporates, remained depressed, contracting by 9.3% y/y in February. The persistent contraction in instalment credit to corporates (since February 2017) is a further indication that businesses are financing fewer and fewer capital goods and as such, are not expanding operations.

Building Plans – February 2019

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A total of 172 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in February. This is a slight increase in the number of plans approved on a monthly basis when compared to the 162 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$173.2 million, a decrease of N$99.5 million compared to last month. 49 Buildings with a value of N$34.36 million were completed during February. The year-to-date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$445.8 million, 28.4% higher than the corresponding period in 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,165 building plans worth approximately N$1.94 billion were approved, an increase in number of 9.4% y/y, but a decrease of 13.8% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

The largest portion of building plan approvals was once again made up of additions to properties, from both a number and value perspective. 137 additions were approved in February, almost matching the number of additions approved in January. Year-to-date 268 additions to properties have been approved with a cumulative value of N$150.3 million, a decline of 45.0% y/y in terms of value compared to the same period in 2018.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 32 approvals registered in February, 3 more than in January. 61 new residential units worth N$209.3 have been approved year-to-date, an increase of 271.8% when compared to the value of approvals in the corresponding period last year. This increase is, however, off of a low base figure in 2018.

3 Commercial and industrial building plans were approved in February, worth N$16.3 million. This is one more than in the prior month, bringing the total number of commercial approvals for 2019 to 5. In value terms, commercial building plan approvals decreased by 76.8% m/m, but increased 186.5% y/y. On a 12 month-cumulative basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals has decreased by 23.5% y/y in February to 39 units, worth approximately N$449.0 million, a decrease of 33.3% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

During the last 12 months 2,165 building plans have been approved, increasing by 9.4% compared to February 2018. These approvals amounted to N$1.94 billion, which is a decrease in value of 13.8% y/y. The overall decrease in value of cumulative plans approved is concerning, as this shows a considerable decrease of construction activity in the city, especially when taking into account that the measure is in nominal value terms and does not account for inflation.

Growth in commercial and industrial construction activity remains extremely subdued as the decrease (on a 12-month cumulative basis) in credit extended to corporates also reflects. It is evident from the commercial figures that business confidence is low, as businesses are not investing in expansionary projects and, as a result, the economy is likely to remain under pressure over the short-term.